Hi Jeff: Overall, "reported" crime is down, but as you know, FBI preliminary data in the past has been incorrect about the degree of change, along with one of three private analysts.
The majority of cities measured by the Major City Chiefs Association has at least one category where violent crime increased.
The National Crime Victimization Survey, for its last official report in 2023, still ranks as the nation's largest increase in rates of violence.
Only a tiny percentage of crime is reported, according to the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Per the FBI's latest report, computer crime-identity theft is up 30 percent in its latest report. Per Gallup, fear of crime is at record highs.
So while your analysis is welcome, and is good news (and I thank you for it-it's a valuable service), the overall crime picture (as you acknowledge) is far more complex.
A contact in NYC law enforcement adds that DAs have a pronounced tendency to downgrade charges and sentences, such that eg assault with a deadly weapon (violent crime) gets charged as possession of the weapon (not a violent crime). The contact adds more and more juveniles are committing crime — so the crime gets charged, sentenced, and recorded as a lower tier of offense or not at all. In light of all this and Len’s good points above, I’d be curious: is the U.S. merely _reporting_ the lowest violent crime/property crime since the 60s, or are we actually _experiencing_ the lowest rates?
Hi: It's been my experience that 20-30 percent of criminal charges in urban areas are dropped, but that's based on old BJS data. Newer BJS data on federal prosecutions claims that some categories exceed 50 percent. Then, 95 percent of the rest are plea-bargained to lower charges or dropped. What gets entered in the NIBRS (original charges or court-altered charges) is uncertain. Len.
Thanks for that helpful context. It seems like one headline would read: “Lowest reported crime rates since 1960s.” But from what you’re saying (and from what I’m hearing), I wonder if another headline worth exploring might be: “Divergence between reported crime and actual crime growing increasingly wide.”As someone who lived through NYC’s transition in the 90s, and then through DC’s lag in its recovery after 2020, I certainly hope that’s not the case! I don’t claim any expertise and would love to be able to dispel that latter interpretation.
We would have to know what the NIBRS is using for data and whether it's corrected by the courts or the prosecutors' office. I do not know, but it would make for an interesting question for the FBI. Jeff probably knows. If the FBI is solely using the initial reports, the crime count per charge would be way off. Len.
One or two fewer murders in Chicago doesn’t make people feel safer walking around the streets when there’s a murder a day average and hooliganism affects the Magnificent Mile and residential neighborhoods. These stats are always quoted by politicians in attempt to divert from the fact that people don’t feel safe on the streets, because they aren’t…
Lots of skepticism in this comment sections - which is fair. We ought to be sure our stats are solid before we ascribe too much weight to them. However I will say, I find crime stats to be incredibly important politically as otherwise we only have individuals perception of crime which can be skewed by media coverage and/or personal experience. And fear of crime is always used as a reason to increase the militarization of the police, vilify the unhoused, and generally create a sense of distrust in the public. So I guess my point is that in this case, imperfect data is better than no data.
A few additional points about crime data to remember; 1) crime reporting by major metropolitan cities is voluntary 2) Many of these same large cities (that may or may not be reporting) with ‘sanctuary’ status, also outlaw the tracking of any distinction between citizens and non-citizens in crime stats 3) These crimes being reported to the FBI are many times downgraded (or dropped and not even reported) by soft on crime DA’s.
I don’t trust crime stats because of these bad data collection issues and of course, DA’s that affect the prosecution of crimes. If a community knows that a man will get released on bail and the charges likely dropped / downgraded/ hardly punished for assault, this also impacts the likelihood that a woman would even bother reporting the man who assaulted her, for her own safety in many cases. The FBI, if they would like the American public to take their data seriously, should really consider changing the reporting requirements.
Hi Jeff: Overall, "reported" crime is down, but as you know, FBI preliminary data in the past has been incorrect about the degree of change, along with one of three private analysts.
The majority of cities measured by the Major City Chiefs Association has at least one category where violent crime increased.
The National Crime Victimization Survey, for its last official report in 2023, still ranks as the nation's largest increase in rates of violence.
Only a tiny percentage of crime is reported, according to the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Per the FBI's latest report, computer crime-identity theft is up 30 percent in its latest report. Per Gallup, fear of crime is at record highs.
So while your analysis is welcome, and is good news (and I thank you for it-it's a valuable service), the overall crime picture (as you acknowledge) is far more complex.
Best, Len.
A contact in NYC law enforcement adds that DAs have a pronounced tendency to downgrade charges and sentences, such that eg assault with a deadly weapon (violent crime) gets charged as possession of the weapon (not a violent crime). The contact adds more and more juveniles are committing crime — so the crime gets charged, sentenced, and recorded as a lower tier of offense or not at all. In light of all this and Len’s good points above, I’d be curious: is the U.S. merely _reporting_ the lowest violent crime/property crime since the 60s, or are we actually _experiencing_ the lowest rates?
Hi: It's been my experience that 20-30 percent of criminal charges in urban areas are dropped, but that's based on old BJS data. Newer BJS data on federal prosecutions claims that some categories exceed 50 percent. Then, 95 percent of the rest are plea-bargained to lower charges or dropped. What gets entered in the NIBRS (original charges or court-altered charges) is uncertain. Len.
Thanks for that helpful context. It seems like one headline would read: “Lowest reported crime rates since 1960s.” But from what you’re saying (and from what I’m hearing), I wonder if another headline worth exploring might be: “Divergence between reported crime and actual crime growing increasingly wide.”As someone who lived through NYC’s transition in the 90s, and then through DC’s lag in its recovery after 2020, I certainly hope that’s not the case! I don’t claim any expertise and would love to be able to dispel that latter interpretation.
We would have to know what the NIBRS is using for data and whether it's corrected by the courts or the prosecutors' office. I do not know, but it would make for an interesting question for the FBI. Jeff probably knows. If the FBI is solely using the initial reports, the crime count per charge would be way off. Len.
One or two fewer murders in Chicago doesn’t make people feel safer walking around the streets when there’s a murder a day average and hooliganism affects the Magnificent Mile and residential neighborhoods. These stats are always quoted by politicians in attempt to divert from the fact that people don’t feel safe on the streets, because they aren’t…
Lots of skepticism in this comment sections - which is fair. We ought to be sure our stats are solid before we ascribe too much weight to them. However I will say, I find crime stats to be incredibly important politically as otherwise we only have individuals perception of crime which can be skewed by media coverage and/or personal experience. And fear of crime is always used as a reason to increase the militarization of the police, vilify the unhoused, and generally create a sense of distrust in the public. So I guess my point is that in this case, imperfect data is better than no data.
A few additional points about crime data to remember; 1) crime reporting by major metropolitan cities is voluntary 2) Many of these same large cities (that may or may not be reporting) with ‘sanctuary’ status, also outlaw the tracking of any distinction between citizens and non-citizens in crime stats 3) These crimes being reported to the FBI are many times downgraded (or dropped and not even reported) by soft on crime DA’s.
I don’t trust crime stats because of these bad data collection issues and of course, DA’s that affect the prosecution of crimes. If a community knows that a man will get released on bail and the charges likely dropped / downgraded/ hardly punished for assault, this also impacts the likelihood that a woman would even bother reporting the man who assaulted her, for her own safety in many cases. The FBI, if they would like the American public to take their data seriously, should really consider changing the reporting requirements.