Hi Jeff: A 44 percent increase in violent crime via the National Crime Victimization Survey per you, The Marshall Project and other sources for 2022 is, to my knowledge, the largest increase in violent crime in the nation's history. If BJS is stating that violent crime is essentially unchanged for 2023, the huge increase continues.
Gallup just put out their world study of their measure of fear of crime. It increased in two regions of the world, the US-Canada and Sub-Saharan Africa. It's down throughout the rest of the world.
Reported crime is up considerably in Canada but not in the US "but" Canada requires police participation in collecting crime data and is probably more efficient because of smaller numbers.
I understand a reliance on the small percentage of crimes reported to police in the US and I understand the difficulties of fully participating in the FBI's NIBRS and I understand that police reporting is voluntary.
But for a variety of reasons, the National Crime Victimization Survey was declared over 50 years ago as far superior count of national crimes compared to crimes reported to law enforcement.
Per Gallup and per the NCVS, something just doesn't add up or make sense, especially when considering the multiple flaws of crimes reported to law enforcement. We're the only section of the world (beyond an area of Africa) to record an increase in fear? Reported crime is up in Canada, and Mexico but it's down here?
I don't doubt your data on homicides but that could be nothing more than a reaction to the considerable increases in murder in past years. No crime category stays the same forever.
For those of us trying to understand national crime, the data leads us in multiple directions.
Hi Jordan: It's possible. But for a peer reviewed process that's existed for over 50 years, you would think that someone in the methodological community would have objected to the NCVS by now. On the other hand, there are endless objections (including Jeff's) to the use of reported crime data. Thirdly, Gallup's data is universally accepted. But you are correct, fear of crime is dependent on multiple issues beyond crime statistics. Best, Len.
Good point, I shouldn't have been so hasty to dismiss it. Necessary context for that 42% rise in 2022: 2020-2021 were historic lows for NCVS reported violent victimization, so even a 42% rise from that just brings us back to 2018-2019 levels, and well below pre-2008 levels. Tougher for the average person to be robbed or assaulted if they're staying at home due the pandemic.
You previously indicated violent crime was down in Chicago. I believe you had a number like 15,000 annually. How do you rationalize that with for just one crime ShotSpotter recording 350,000 shots fired in Chicago so far in 2024? Discharge of an illegal fire arm in Chicago is a class 2 felony.
You also indicate that property crimes are down. Why is it that all drug stores, food stores, and other retail and small businesses in poor areas are closing/moving out leaving entire communities as deserts for the necessities of life if property crime is going down?
You have indicated crime clearance rates are running consistently at 60% to 80%. What does clearance mean if when a crime is committed the probability of a successful prosecution is less than 5%.
Hi Jeff: A 44 percent increase in violent crime via the National Crime Victimization Survey per you, The Marshall Project and other sources for 2022 is, to my knowledge, the largest increase in violent crime in the nation's history. If BJS is stating that violent crime is essentially unchanged for 2023, the huge increase continues.
Gallup just put out their world study of their measure of fear of crime. It increased in two regions of the world, the US-Canada and Sub-Saharan Africa. It's down throughout the rest of the world.
Reported crime is up considerably in Canada but not in the US "but" Canada requires police participation in collecting crime data and is probably more efficient because of smaller numbers.
I understand a reliance on the small percentage of crimes reported to police in the US and I understand the difficulties of fully participating in the FBI's NIBRS and I understand that police reporting is voluntary.
But for a variety of reasons, the National Crime Victimization Survey was declared over 50 years ago as far superior count of national crimes compared to crimes reported to law enforcement.
Per Gallup and per the NCVS, something just doesn't add up or make sense, especially when considering the multiple flaws of crimes reported to law enforcement. We're the only section of the world (beyond an area of Africa) to record an increase in fear? Reported crime is up in Canada, and Mexico but it's down here?
I don't doubt your data on homicides but that could be nothing more than a reaction to the considerable increases in murder in past years. No crime category stays the same forever.
For those of us trying to understand national crime, the data leads us in multiple directions.
Best, Len.
The much simpler explanation is that the NCVS is flawed. And polled "fear of crime" is often completely unrelated to actual crime data.
Hi Jordan: It's possible. But for a peer reviewed process that's existed for over 50 years, you would think that someone in the methodological community would have objected to the NCVS by now. On the other hand, there are endless objections (including Jeff's) to the use of reported crime data. Thirdly, Gallup's data is universally accepted. But you are correct, fear of crime is dependent on multiple issues beyond crime statistics. Best, Len.
Good point, I shouldn't have been so hasty to dismiss it. Necessary context for that 42% rise in 2022: 2020-2021 were historic lows for NCVS reported violent victimization, so even a 42% rise from that just brings us back to 2018-2019 levels, and well below pre-2008 levels. Tougher for the average person to be robbed or assaulted if they're staying at home due the pandemic.
You may have already seen it, but Jeff wrote a more recent post about the Gallup data, pointing to the influence of political polarization on perception of crime: https://jasher.substack.com/p/exploring-the-chasm-between-how-democrats
Do you have a sense of what is going on in Washington state that means its trends are moving opposite the rest of the country so dramatically?
Hello Jeff,
You previously indicated violent crime was down in Chicago. I believe you had a number like 15,000 annually. How do you rationalize that with for just one crime ShotSpotter recording 350,000 shots fired in Chicago so far in 2024? Discharge of an illegal fire arm in Chicago is a class 2 felony.
You also indicate that property crimes are down. Why is it that all drug stores, food stores, and other retail and small businesses in poor areas are closing/moving out leaving entire communities as deserts for the necessities of life if property crime is going down?
You have indicated crime clearance rates are running consistently at 60% to 80%. What does clearance mean if when a crime is committed the probability of a successful prosecution is less than 5%.
Jeff - does West Virginia report stats ?