This is excellent and a discussion that is sorely needed. I would only add that the right-wing media's uber-focus on crime in cities is designed to (and does) increase racism. Racism is a key to their in-group/out-group political strategy. So, sure, Republicans perceive a lot of crime because it is intentionally spoon-fed to them. Democrats perceive it mostly because of the mainstream media's "if it bleeds it leads" and legitimate media's desire to keep up with the popularity of Fox News et al.
I just got blasted for posing the same question in a Reddit group.
One can make any observation they want regarding crime data. There's "proof" that homicides increased by 50 percent and aggravated assaults increased by 36 percent 2019-2022 via big city crime dashboards. There's "proof" that via the NCVS that violence increased 44 percent in 2022. There's "proof" that rates of reported crime are lower than previous decades. There's "proof" that fear or concern depends on age or political affiliation.
But do we run a risk of downplaying concerns about crime? Those of us who are/were in the mainstream justice system came into direct contact with endless people victimized by "minor" crimes who were so negatively impacted that they moved or restricted their movements or who spent thousands on security systems or bought firearms (now in 50 percent of households per Gallup).
I'm aware of a newly hired news director for a Baltimore TV station who wanted to live in the city but their garage was broken into three times to steal bikes. They moved 30 miles away from the city. I just finished reading a story about e bikes in NYC having the potential for solving an array of problems but people keep stealing the bikes.
After personally witnessing (and assisting) multiple victims of crime, their reactions are posted on social media and shared with family and friends. This is multiplied many thousands of times daily. We may believe that their distress is an overreaction based on inaccurate data but, to them, it's real fear with considerable consequences.
I'm unwilling to suggest that that their feelings are invalid (and I understand that's not what you’re saying) but what we consider "minor" crimes lives with them and their friends and family for a very long period of crime.
Now, take it to the next level of violent crimes. The examples of human distress are literally endless with people living their lives in fear and they share that fear with every Facebook photo of them sleeping with Pitbulls. It's the well documented instances of people living in high crime areas with PTSD.
So I'm torn between a statistical approach as to how people "should" feel and how crime has affected them. I'll go back to my experience posting on a Reddit group where I was called every name in the book with people saying that I was "fear mongering" for posting the same data.
I don't know the answer as to how people should feel but I have great sympathy for those who are affected by crime and how it's impacted their lives. It's almost like we are telling rape victims that they shouldn't feel afraid or concerned or that they should stop expressing those feelings via social media.
It would help if there was an accurate synthesis of crime data. It would help if crime victims got the support they need to overcome their very real issues. Yet I understand that, like my experience on Reddit, I just made a lot of people upset for saying the above because they believe that it has a negative impact on their preferred justice policies.
I don't have answers but I believe that we must tread carefully or we alienate a ton of people directly or indirectly victimized.
Or maybe it’s because people have lost faith in the system. They are victimized but no longer report it And the no longer participate in government surveys.
“. A sweeping poll commissioned by The Chronicle drew sobering results: Nearly half of respondents said they were victims of theft in the past five years, while roughly a quarter were physically attacked or threatened. The majority had negative impressions of law enforcement.”
Do you have any plans to explore the NCVS UCR relationship in the future? This is something I think about and am always concerned with, muddies the water and all.
This is excellent and a discussion that is sorely needed. I would only add that the right-wing media's uber-focus on crime in cities is designed to (and does) increase racism. Racism is a key to their in-group/out-group political strategy. So, sure, Republicans perceive a lot of crime because it is intentionally spoon-fed to them. Democrats perceive it mostly because of the mainstream media's "if it bleeds it leads" and legitimate media's desire to keep up with the popularity of Fox News et al.
I just got blasted for posing the same question in a Reddit group.
One can make any observation they want regarding crime data. There's "proof" that homicides increased by 50 percent and aggravated assaults increased by 36 percent 2019-2022 via big city crime dashboards. There's "proof" that via the NCVS that violence increased 44 percent in 2022. There's "proof" that rates of reported crime are lower than previous decades. There's "proof" that fear or concern depends on age or political affiliation.
But do we run a risk of downplaying concerns about crime? Those of us who are/were in the mainstream justice system came into direct contact with endless people victimized by "minor" crimes who were so negatively impacted that they moved or restricted their movements or who spent thousands on security systems or bought firearms (now in 50 percent of households per Gallup).
I'm aware of a newly hired news director for a Baltimore TV station who wanted to live in the city but their garage was broken into three times to steal bikes. They moved 30 miles away from the city. I just finished reading a story about e bikes in NYC having the potential for solving an array of problems but people keep stealing the bikes.
After personally witnessing (and assisting) multiple victims of crime, their reactions are posted on social media and shared with family and friends. This is multiplied many thousands of times daily. We may believe that their distress is an overreaction based on inaccurate data but, to them, it's real fear with considerable consequences.
I'm unwilling to suggest that that their feelings are invalid (and I understand that's not what you’re saying) but what we consider "minor" crimes lives with them and their friends and family for a very long period of crime.
Now, take it to the next level of violent crimes. The examples of human distress are literally endless with people living their lives in fear and they share that fear with every Facebook photo of them sleeping with Pitbulls. It's the well documented instances of people living in high crime areas with PTSD.
So I'm torn between a statistical approach as to how people "should" feel and how crime has affected them. I'll go back to my experience posting on a Reddit group where I was called every name in the book with people saying that I was "fear mongering" for posting the same data.
I don't know the answer as to how people should feel but I have great sympathy for those who are affected by crime and how it's impacted their lives. It's almost like we are telling rape victims that they shouldn't feel afraid or concerned or that they should stop expressing those feelings via social media.
It would help if there was an accurate synthesis of crime data. It would help if crime victims got the support they need to overcome their very real issues. Yet I understand that, like my experience on Reddit, I just made a lot of people upset for saying the above because they believe that it has a negative impact on their preferred justice policies.
I don't have answers but I believe that we must tread carefully or we alienate a ton of people directly or indirectly victimized.
Best, Len.
Or maybe it’s because people have lost faith in the system. They are victimized but no longer report it And the no longer participate in government surveys.
“. A sweeping poll commissioned by The Chronicle drew sobering results: Nearly half of respondents said they were victims of theft in the past five years, while roughly a quarter were physically attacked or threatened. The majority had negative impressions of law enforcement.”
https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/sfnext-poll-crime-sfpd-17439346.php
The partisan breakdown is wild.
Do you have any plans to explore the NCVS UCR relationship in the future? This is something I think about and am always concerned with, muddies the water and all.
If there is a data vacuum, how can anybody say if crime is up or down. The only thing left is anecdotes...