It isn’t “luck” or randomness. You need to peel the onion of individual shootings to better understand why some people die and others survive. In California, gun violence was up and up a lot in 2022. PPIC reports “ Compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, homicides jumped by 33.9% and aggravated assaults by 25.3% in 2022, with gun-related homicides and aggravated assaults surging by 37.7% and 61.1%”. Why didn’t deaths match up with gun violence? There are several possible reasons: Quick reporting and response by public safety including EMS, quick transportation to a trauma center, the ability of the trauma center to treat GSW victims, post operative care, the health of the victim prior to being shot, the presence of drugs in their system etc
People died as a result of GSW during Covid because the emergency medical system was taxed to its limits.
As for the reaction to police shootings and killings as precipitating increased homicides - it’s so esoteric that it’s almost laughable - two stories by one author about homicides in one city in one publication is hardly indicative of a trend. But that same publication also published you didn’t it? In fact, the media coverage of police shootings far exceeds their actual numbers creating an illusion of pervasive police violence that isn’t supported by statistics. Perhaps look at independent police auditors reporting and analysis more thoroughly- or a report by the Manhattan Institute that shows just a handful of controversial police shootings or fatal incidents driving public perceptions as a result of media coverage that’s more propaganda than factual.
Look at public policy, prosecutions, a decline in police staffing, gun laws, prison releases, the availability of drugs, trauma care etc.
Those are indicators of increasing or decreasing GSW and homicide rates.
I think you're missing the point in your criticisms and the alternative theories have even bigger logical holes.
Jeff is saying that luck or randomness probably explains most of the smaller variations in murder rates, and can't be ruled out as a factor in these outlier cities. That's a reasonable component of any data analysis examining events that occur a few dozen or at most hundreds of times in a year, like homicides in a particular city. He didn't say it was the only factor.
When he's talking about police killings precipitating increased homicides, he's talking about how high-profile police killings that gain wide press-attention and trigger Federal Justice department investigations, police chiefs being fired and often large waves of transfers or retirements of officers. Think Ferguson or Baltimore in 2015, Minneapolis in 2020 or Memphis last year. Actually, don't just think - look at the data for those cities at those times! There are major spikes in shootings and murders right after the police killing attracts attention.
The trauma care argument you're making might make sense over long time periods, ie when comparing homicide rates inn 1980 to today, but ERs being overwhelmed was a temperorary phenomenon in American cities. The big covid waves were April 2020 and winer 2020-21 and winter 2021-22. But those were the time periods when murder was actually at its lowers, post-Floyd. Summer 2020 and summer 2021 were the worst time for murder, and covid had abated in both of those seasons. You can find and download regional data on homicides and covid deaths if you're not convinced. I've done so myself to test this hypothesis - it doesn't fit. In any case - why would trauma care in California in 2022 suddenly be so much better than in 2021?
I think quoting a past article that quotes you and calls you indispensable to shore up a current blog is a bit self serving- don’t you think Mr Wigan - or whatever your name is.
It isn’t “luck” or randomness. You need to peel the onion of individual shootings to better understand why some people die and others survive. In California, gun violence was up and up a lot in 2022. PPIC reports “ Compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, homicides jumped by 33.9% and aggravated assaults by 25.3% in 2022, with gun-related homicides and aggravated assaults surging by 37.7% and 61.1%”. Why didn’t deaths match up with gun violence? There are several possible reasons: Quick reporting and response by public safety including EMS, quick transportation to a trauma center, the ability of the trauma center to treat GSW victims, post operative care, the health of the victim prior to being shot, the presence of drugs in their system etc
People died as a result of GSW during Covid because the emergency medical system was taxed to its limits.
As for the reaction to police shootings and killings as precipitating increased homicides - it’s so esoteric that it’s almost laughable - two stories by one author about homicides in one city in one publication is hardly indicative of a trend. But that same publication also published you didn’t it? In fact, the media coverage of police shootings far exceeds their actual numbers creating an illusion of pervasive police violence that isn’t supported by statistics. Perhaps look at independent police auditors reporting and analysis more thoroughly- or a report by the Manhattan Institute that shows just a handful of controversial police shootings or fatal incidents driving public perceptions as a result of media coverage that’s more propaganda than factual.
Look at public policy, prosecutions, a decline in police staffing, gun laws, prison releases, the availability of drugs, trauma care etc.
Those are indicators of increasing or decreasing GSW and homicide rates.
I think you're missing the point in your criticisms and the alternative theories have even bigger logical holes.
Jeff is saying that luck or randomness probably explains most of the smaller variations in murder rates, and can't be ruled out as a factor in these outlier cities. That's a reasonable component of any data analysis examining events that occur a few dozen or at most hundreds of times in a year, like homicides in a particular city. He didn't say it was the only factor.
When he's talking about police killings precipitating increased homicides, he's talking about how high-profile police killings that gain wide press-attention and trigger Federal Justice department investigations, police chiefs being fired and often large waves of transfers or retirements of officers. Think Ferguson or Baltimore in 2015, Minneapolis in 2020 or Memphis last year. Actually, don't just think - look at the data for those cities at those times! There are major spikes in shootings and murders right after the police killing attracts attention.
The trauma care argument you're making might make sense over long time periods, ie when comparing homicide rates inn 1980 to today, but ERs being overwhelmed was a temperorary phenomenon in American cities. The big covid waves were April 2020 and winer 2020-21 and winter 2021-22. But those were the time periods when murder was actually at its lowers, post-Floyd. Summer 2020 and summer 2021 were the worst time for murder, and covid had abated in both of those seasons. You can find and download regional data on homicides and covid deaths if you're not convinced. I've done so myself to test this hypothesis - it doesn't fit. In any case - why would trauma care in California in 2022 suddenly be so much better than in 2021?
I think quoting a past article that quotes you and calls you indispensable to shore up a current blog is a bit self serving- don’t you think Mr Wigan - or whatever your name is.
Trauma care improved in 2022 over 2021 because Covid subsided and that provided a respite for an EMS system that was breaking
I'm a little late with this, but Montgomery, Alabama went from 62 homicides in 2022 to 75 in 2023. Nearly as bad as 2021 (77).