I'm curious what you think of this paper out of the University of Utah law school: https://dc.law.utah.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1202&context=scholarship

It discusses the problems we face using closure rates and similar agency-filtered metrics to measure crime and police effectiveness.

Also, a separate question: why are major crimes typically scaled by population density, rather than by square population density? All major crimes (murder, assault, theft, etc) are interactions between at least two people, which we should expect to scale quadratically with population size in the absence of other factors.

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Hi Jeff: I read every word you offer. Your writings are uniformly instructive.

As to your current article, it's a good analysis as to the problems associated with the National Incident Based reporting System. But it says nothing about the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey. Please see https://www.crimeinamerica.net/crime-rates-united-states/ for my analysis.

There is nothing in the literature disputing the survey. There is nothing in methodological terms suggesting that the survey is incorrect thus the official position of the US Department of Justice is that violent crime was flat in 2021 based on the NCVS and The FBI.

I offer an array of data in my article suggesting that violent crime, especially urban violent crime increased considerably in 2021.

I would appreciate your thoughts on the findings of the National Crime Victimization Survey. As my article states, I believe that COVID had and continues to have an impact on survey data as stated in several observations within the survey literature.

Thanks for your insightful articles. If you send me your RSS feed, I'll put your site on my front page.

Best, Len.

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