Hi Jeff: That's why there should be a significant increase in the research budget at OJP. We have golden opportunities to probe why, same as the massive increase in violence per the National Crime Victimization Survey (yes, BJS can geolocate) . If we were the CDC or NTSB, we would look for explanations for recent incidents. We don't do that for crime. It makes little to no sense. Len.
I flip to this page every morning https://www.phillypolice.com/crimestats and have yet to see an explanation for the remarkable decline. Is it possible that enough of those who were committing the crimes are dead or in jail?
This year's homicide rate in philly is well below 2018-2019. Near record low. Oddly the homicide rate for 2020 pre-covid was pretty damn high although it was only 11 weeks.
I can't help wondering that kind of thing myself, although I don't think the numbers are anywhere close enough to really add up.
That said, it's probably some of the decline, as there was a truly big rise in excess deaths from murder, traffic accidents and drug overdoses beginning in May 2020. In Louisiana it's maybe accounted for an extra 5,000 fatalities, concentrated among people who are disproportionately likely to commit crimes. That would make some difference, although it couldn't account for all of it. I don't have a good source for arrests or prison population.
My guess is that fewer murders and shootings is what's driving lower response times, not the other way around. When those major crimes occur, many squad cars respond at the same time and often stay on scene for hours, leading to significantly slower response times for other lower-level stuff.
The reason that "reported" crime is declining is totally clear. No victim or witness in their right mind will report a crime anymore. Arrests are through the floor. Prosecutions are even more sparse. Response times were up 5 fold before people stopped reporting crime. Now that nobody reports crime response times are coming back down. Felonies are plead to misdemeanors and misdemeanors are plead to no crime.
Evidence: take a look at your violent crime rates for Chicago. But ShotSpotter records 360,000 shoots fired annually, each discharge of a weapon in the city is a felony, not counting a citizen threatened, mugged assaulted or robbed, none of which is ever reported. Every time I am in a drug store or food store or big box store there are tons of folks picking up merchandise and walking out. Store personnel are told to not intervene. In Cook County you can now steal $999 eight times, and its OK. Nobody reports this. Cashless bail puts the criminal back at the victim's or witness's door the same day as the crime. Have you adjusted the FBI "reported crime" stats to compensate for this? Please stop saying crime is down until you get a handle on "Unreported Crime" I have hundreds of family and friends living in daily fear in these neighborhoods and it really hurts when they hear crime is down, when its out of control.
We have a very complete view of the number of actual murders, which are way down. Hospitals are required to report Gunshot Wound Victims, so we have a pretty reliable and complete accounting of those as well, and they have also seen a significant reduction nationwide.
Possible that property crime reporting rates are down a bit, but that's why we have the annual National Crime Victimization Survey.
I think what you are seeing is that local crime-fighting has extremely little impact on index crime rates. Despite different state criminal punishments, different levels of police staffing and tactics, and so forth, national trends generally control what's going on. Nationally, index crimes (both violent and property) have been plummeting since the 1990s; nobody really knows why. There was an increase among certain crimes during COVID and then a decrease (with cities like DC being toward the end of the wave) and nobody really knows why. If you don't know why crime goes up and down nationally, then you can't really "fight" it; the arguments for one solution or another are just people repeating their preexisting beliefs.
Jeff, in your role do you get an opportunity to talk to NOPD LEOs or Dispatchers? Particularly with regards to response times, I'd be very curious to simply hear opinions from the rank and file. They must have some insights into what's driving the changes.
Hi Jeff: That's why there should be a significant increase in the research budget at OJP. We have golden opportunities to probe why, same as the massive increase in violence per the National Crime Victimization Survey (yes, BJS can geolocate) . If we were the CDC or NTSB, we would look for explanations for recent incidents. We don't do that for crime. It makes little to no sense. Len.
I flip to this page every morning https://www.phillypolice.com/crimestats and have yet to see an explanation for the remarkable decline. Is it possible that enough of those who were committing the crimes are dead or in jail?
or maybe this is just reversion to the pre-2020 mean as society largely returns to normal.
This year's homicide rate in philly is well below 2018-2019. Near record low. Oddly the homicide rate for 2020 pre-covid was pretty damn high although it was only 11 weeks.
I can't help wondering that kind of thing myself, although I don't think the numbers are anywhere close enough to really add up.
That said, it's probably some of the decline, as there was a truly big rise in excess deaths from murder, traffic accidents and drug overdoses beginning in May 2020. In Louisiana it's maybe accounted for an extra 5,000 fatalities, concentrated among people who are disproportionately likely to commit crimes. That would make some difference, although it couldn't account for all of it. I don't have a good source for arrests or prison population.
My guess is that fewer murders and shootings is what's driving lower response times, not the other way around. When those major crimes occur, many squad cars respond at the same time and often stay on scene for hours, leading to significantly slower response times for other lower-level stuff.
The reason that "reported" crime is declining is totally clear. No victim or witness in their right mind will report a crime anymore. Arrests are through the floor. Prosecutions are even more sparse. Response times were up 5 fold before people stopped reporting crime. Now that nobody reports crime response times are coming back down. Felonies are plead to misdemeanors and misdemeanors are plead to no crime.
Evidence: take a look at your violent crime rates for Chicago. But ShotSpotter records 360,000 shoots fired annually, each discharge of a weapon in the city is a felony, not counting a citizen threatened, mugged assaulted or robbed, none of which is ever reported. Every time I am in a drug store or food store or big box store there are tons of folks picking up merchandise and walking out. Store personnel are told to not intervene. In Cook County you can now steal $999 eight times, and its OK. Nobody reports this. Cashless bail puts the criminal back at the victim's or witness's door the same day as the crime. Have you adjusted the FBI "reported crime" stats to compensate for this? Please stop saying crime is down until you get a handle on "Unreported Crime" I have hundreds of family and friends living in daily fear in these neighborhoods and it really hurts when they hear crime is down, when its out of control.
We have a very complete view of the number of actual murders, which are way down. Hospitals are required to report Gunshot Wound Victims, so we have a pretty reliable and complete accounting of those as well, and they have also seen a significant reduction nationwide.
Possible that property crime reporting rates are down a bit, but that's why we have the annual National Crime Victimization Survey.
I think what you are seeing is that local crime-fighting has extremely little impact on index crime rates. Despite different state criminal punishments, different levels of police staffing and tactics, and so forth, national trends generally control what's going on. Nationally, index crimes (both violent and property) have been plummeting since the 1990s; nobody really knows why. There was an increase among certain crimes during COVID and then a decrease (with cities like DC being toward the end of the wave) and nobody really knows why. If you don't know why crime goes up and down nationally, then you can't really "fight" it; the arguments for one solution or another are just people repeating their preexisting beliefs.
Jeff, in your role do you get an opportunity to talk to NOPD LEOs or Dispatchers? Particularly with regards to response times, I'd be very curious to simply hear opinions from the rank and file. They must have some insights into what's driving the changes.
"New Orleans is like every other American city, only more so."
Maybe, but I doubt there are too many other places that parse traffic stops since Mardi Gras...except Mobile of course !🤪