“ Anybody suggesting the FBI’s figures are perfect is either naive about the way the data is collected and reported or doesn’t read my newsletter (or probably both).”
Does that include David Muir, The Atlantic, New York Times and S.F. Chronicle? All of whom selectively quote you and categorically state the FBI statistics are accurate.
Both the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics released data before the presidential election in 2020 indicating that violence decreased. Both clarified via emails that there were definitional issues and that violence did not decrease.
They did. The lesson is that what you get in yearly crime reports routinely changes.
The FBI's preliminary report for 2023 was significantly overestimated. There is a private organization that used police dashboard data and made woefully wrong predictions. The Bureau of Justice Statistics changed their minds three times in one year regarding violent crime. At least Jeff warns us that preliminary data should be treated with caution.
The conservative National Review offers, "David Mastio of the Kansas City Star reached out to the FBI’s press office, asking about RealClearInvestigations‘ scoop that the bureau quietly revised the 2022 crime statistics, “releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5 percent." I assume that Jeff's release today might be based on that assertion.
And people wonder why analyzing crime data and coming to reasonable conclusions becomes almost impossible.
"The FBI's preliminary report for 2023 was significantly overestimated. There is a private organization that used police dashboard data and made woefully wrong predictions. The Bureau of Justice Statistics changed their minds three times in one year regarding violent crime. At least Jeff warns us that preliminary data should be treated with caution."
Can you clarify? Were their numbers too high or too low?
Hi Max: They overestimated. As Jeff has warned, we should be cautious about FBI preliminary data. For example, a lot of police agencies send in their data at the end of the year.
It's summarized in https://www.crimeinamerica.net/crime-rates-united-states/. There are multiple times when the FBI or BJS changed their data. It's seems to be an issue before elections (I have no proof of intent-just examples).
“ Anybody suggesting the FBI’s figures are perfect is either naive about the way the data is collected and reported or doesn’t read my newsletter (or probably both).”
Does that include David Muir, The Atlantic, New York Times and S.F. Chronicle? All of whom selectively quote you and categorically state the FBI statistics are accurate.
The National Crime Victimization Survey offers similar revisions.
Thanks Jeff. That was pretty comprehensive.
It's like trusting your gut over the government is the better way to go when it comes to crime.
Both the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics released data before the presidential election in 2020 indicating that violence decreased. Both clarified via emails that there were definitional issues and that violence did not decrease.
Can you clarify what they mean by this? It sounds like the FBI and BJS basically refuted themselves.
They did. The lesson is that what you get in yearly crime reports routinely changes.
The FBI's preliminary report for 2023 was significantly overestimated. There is a private organization that used police dashboard data and made woefully wrong predictions. The Bureau of Justice Statistics changed their minds three times in one year regarding violent crime. At least Jeff warns us that preliminary data should be treated with caution.
The conservative National Review offers, "David Mastio of the Kansas City Star reached out to the FBI’s press office, asking about RealClearInvestigations‘ scoop that the bureau quietly revised the 2022 crime statistics, “releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5 percent." I assume that Jeff's release today might be based on that assertion.
And people wonder why analyzing crime data and coming to reasonable conclusions becomes almost impossible.
"The FBI's preliminary report for 2023 was significantly overestimated. There is a private organization that used police dashboard data and made woefully wrong predictions. The Bureau of Justice Statistics changed their minds three times in one year regarding violent crime. At least Jeff warns us that preliminary data should be treated with caution."
Can you clarify? Were their numbers too high or too low?
Hi Max: They overestimated. As Jeff has warned, we should be cautious about FBI preliminary data. For example, a lot of police agencies send in their data at the end of the year.
It's summarized in https://www.crimeinamerica.net/crime-rates-united-states/. There are multiple times when the FBI or BJS changed their data. It's seems to be an issue before elections (I have no proof of intent-just examples).
Len.