Hi Jeff: The "highly likely" analysis is similar to what I was taught in crisis communication courses; groups have their own preconceived notion of what is a fact. We were taught that we were obligated to offer facts (i.e., the dam was about to burst) while noting that "facts" are interpreted by group mindsets. The lesson was that groups are going to respond to your emergency messaging differently and that we (as spokespeople) should be prepared for that reality.
It's sorta like policing where Gallup recently offered data that the image of law enforcement improved more than other institutions. But for those who mistrust law enforcement, they trust their group instincts more than they trust Gallup's "fact." Thus "facts," unfortunately, become mired in group mindsets.
There is no doubt that homicides have decreased. There is no doubt that "reported" crimes have decreased. Yet murder becomes a proxy for overall crime and groups seem wedded (per Gallup and other polls) to the sense that crime remains at the top of their list of priorities. I'm doing an article today (based on data) where crime is a top reason for people moving.
Regardless of the data we offer, groups (especially Democrats and Republicans and Independents who lean their way ) seem to view the world differently regardless of the researched offered. I don't say this to discourage a fact based discussion. I'm playing off your "highly likely" analysis and suggesting that regardless as to what you or I may offer, people are going to see the world based on their preconceived notions, something that you are undoubtedly aware of.
Could be true... just checked my favorite gun crime stat site. for example in Chicago YTD shootings are up.. 1 person shot every 2:48 min this year vs 2:51min last year... but murders are down 1 person murdered every14:20min this year vs 13:36 last year. https://heyjackass.com/
Hi Jeff: The "highly likely" analysis is similar to what I was taught in crisis communication courses; groups have their own preconceived notion of what is a fact. We were taught that we were obligated to offer facts (i.e., the dam was about to burst) while noting that "facts" are interpreted by group mindsets. The lesson was that groups are going to respond to your emergency messaging differently and that we (as spokespeople) should be prepared for that reality.
It's sorta like policing where Gallup recently offered data that the image of law enforcement improved more than other institutions. But for those who mistrust law enforcement, they trust their group instincts more than they trust Gallup's "fact." Thus "facts," unfortunately, become mired in group mindsets.
There is no doubt that homicides have decreased. There is no doubt that "reported" crimes have decreased. Yet murder becomes a proxy for overall crime and groups seem wedded (per Gallup and other polls) to the sense that crime remains at the top of their list of priorities. I'm doing an article today (based on data) where crime is a top reason for people moving.
Regardless of the data we offer, groups (especially Democrats and Republicans and Independents who lean their way ) seem to view the world differently regardless of the researched offered. I don't say this to discourage a fact based discussion. I'm playing off your "highly likely" analysis and suggesting that regardless as to what you or I may offer, people are going to see the world based on their preconceived notions, something that you are undoubtedly aware of.
Best, Len.
This report is excellent - thanks for sharing the data
Could be true... just checked my favorite gun crime stat site. for example in Chicago YTD shootings are up.. 1 person shot every 2:48 min this year vs 2:51min last year... but murders are down 1 person murdered every14:20min this year vs 13:36 last year. https://heyjackass.com/