Do you have any data to back that up besides an eyeball "correlation"? Charlotte and Jackson murders are up while NYC and Baltimore murders are bottoming out. Even being as generous as possible I don't see it
There seems to be a pretty strong correlation between the strength of the positive change and the political party controlling the pertinent Statehouse. Since that factor is also highly correlated with whether the state and local law enforcement cooperates with ICE, that suggests a meaningful amount of the drop is due to ICE operations, and/or the deterrent effect thereof.
Do you have any data to back that up besides an eyeball "correlation"? Charlotte and Jackson murders are up while NYC and Baltimore murders are bottoming out. Even being as generous as possible I don't see it
There seems to be a pretty strong correlation between the strength of the positive change and the political party controlling the pertinent Statehouse. Since that factor is also highly correlated with whether the state and local law enforcement cooperates with ICE, that suggests a meaningful amount of the drop is due to ICE operations, and/or the deterrent effect thereof.
GOP in control:
2018-19: very little change
2019-20: big rise
Dems in control:
2020-21: big rise
2021-22: very little change
2022-23: decrease starting
2023-24: decrease accelerating
GOP in control
2024-25: decrease continues
2025-26: decrease continues
I don't really see the strong correlation you are seeing.
And since the changes from a November election don't take place until mid-January of the next year, that seems to weaken the suggested correlation.