Thanks for crunching these and other numbers. I'm not a numbers guy, just an ex-journalist who has always complained about the failure of the news media to report crime stats accurately and honestly. My latest complaint is the failure of media and black leaders to address the elephant in the room -- since 1994, by my rough but I think accurate estimate, at least 150,000 young black males have been murdered in the USA (primarily by other young black males). It an ongoing 'American Slaughter' that no one has, or wants to, notice. That huge death toll is a terrible tragedy, and though many many people try to address it on a neighborhood or city level, the full scope of it -- that big 150,000 number -- is never mentioned, as far as I can tell. Please address this issue: https://clips.substack.com/p/2023-another-year-of-slaughter-for
"It's the drug war, stupid", to paraphrase James Carville. Let Seagram's and RJR sell regulated street smack; the drug lords and their armies would become marginalized in no time. It will happen inevitably, and future social scientists will consider our approach to controlling street drugs as as modern medicine does blood-letting and leeches . No politician or police union has a better answer. Heck, Hamsterdam was a better answer.
As someone with an Econ background I always enjoy trend info in important stats, and yours seems quite nicely done
I also love to see changes in other data that can be inferred as CAUSES of changes such as you report. Seeing a large increase in reports of local (Oakland CA) crimes where guns are used, I wonder if it’s possible to differentiate murders in ① relationships going awry; ② economic crimes and ③ “random” anger/thrill shootings
The 15-30 demographic accounts for the lion's share of violence. I turned 30 in 1992, a late boomer; the subsequent drop in the violence-inclined age demographic -- the baby busters -- explains the precipitous murder drop through the decade. My boy just turned 30, a late echo-boomer. You've identified the beginning of the next trend. I speculate another factor is monopolization of the street-drug trade -- fewer foes to shoot possibly? The notion certainly enjoys precedent; see linky. In any case, anyone who thinks urban US streets are dangerous today either wasn't there or wasn't paying attention in the 1980s. Fear sells, fear garners votes. I live in Baltimore, not in fear. https://insightcrime.org/investigations/juarez-after-the-war/
The numbers could be compromised by lack of solid crime lab analysis or backlogged from staffing issues. Some crime labs have to ship bodies to other states cause they can't get to it.
It's been a while since I read this piece but I remember thinking a little bit, rereading my comment, that the data or validity of the data for saying murders are down based on this constant didn't seem very concrete. Investigating murder can be complicated. Big cities like new Orleans do not prioritize certain homicides, my knowledge of that is anecdotal, knowing a crime lab employee which doesn't create concrete reasoning either but does add to the convoluted inability to say 2024 has less murders than previous years.
As a 76 yoa w/f retiring criminal defense and civil rights attorney, i love to read your reports. I ran for Sheriff in Caddo Parish, LA in November 2023. I didn't win, but I sure did get people thinking. I have quite a file of things you shared with us. I look forward to more. Pat Gilley
Thanks for crunching these and other numbers. I'm not a numbers guy, just an ex-journalist who has always complained about the failure of the news media to report crime stats accurately and honestly. My latest complaint is the failure of media and black leaders to address the elephant in the room -- since 1994, by my rough but I think accurate estimate, at least 150,000 young black males have been murdered in the USA (primarily by other young black males). It an ongoing 'American Slaughter' that no one has, or wants to, notice. That huge death toll is a terrible tragedy, and though many many people try to address it on a neighborhood or city level, the full scope of it -- that big 150,000 number -- is never mentioned, as far as I can tell. Please address this issue: https://clips.substack.com/p/2023-another-year-of-slaughter-for
"It's the drug war, stupid", to paraphrase James Carville. Let Seagram's and RJR sell regulated street smack; the drug lords and their armies would become marginalized in no time. It will happen inevitably, and future social scientists will consider our approach to controlling street drugs as as modern medicine does blood-letting and leeches . No politician or police union has a better answer. Heck, Hamsterdam was a better answer.
As someone with an Econ background I always enjoy trend info in important stats, and yours seems quite nicely done
I also love to see changes in other data that can be inferred as CAUSES of changes such as you report. Seeing a large increase in reports of local (Oakland CA) crimes where guns are used, I wonder if it’s possible to differentiate murders in ① relationships going awry; ② economic crimes and ③ “random” anger/thrill shootings
Anyway, thanks again
The 15-30 demographic accounts for the lion's share of violence. I turned 30 in 1992, a late boomer; the subsequent drop in the violence-inclined age demographic -- the baby busters -- explains the precipitous murder drop through the decade. My boy just turned 30, a late echo-boomer. You've identified the beginning of the next trend. I speculate another factor is monopolization of the street-drug trade -- fewer foes to shoot possibly? The notion certainly enjoys precedent; see linky. In any case, anyone who thinks urban US streets are dangerous today either wasn't there or wasn't paying attention in the 1980s. Fear sells, fear garners votes. I live in Baltimore, not in fear. https://insightcrime.org/investigations/juarez-after-the-war/
The numbers could be compromised by lack of solid crime lab analysis or backlogged from staffing issues. Some crime labs have to ship bodies to other states cause they can't get to it.
Reference please. I smell a sardine.
It's been a while since I read this piece but I remember thinking a little bit, rereading my comment, that the data or validity of the data for saying murders are down based on this constant didn't seem very concrete. Investigating murder can be complicated. Big cities like new Orleans do not prioritize certain homicides, my knowledge of that is anecdotal, knowing a crime lab employee which doesn't create concrete reasoning either but does add to the convoluted inability to say 2024 has less murders than previous years.
As a 76 yoa w/f retiring criminal defense and civil rights attorney, i love to read your reports. I ran for Sheriff in Caddo Parish, LA in November 2023. I didn't win, but I sure did get people thinking. I have quite a file of things you shared with us. I look forward to more. Pat Gilley