How 2025 Could Feature The Lowest US Murder Rate Ever Recorded

Maybe!

The question recently got raised over on Bluesky regarding whether 2025 will feature the lowest murder rate in the US ever recorded. Shockingly, considering how much murder increased in the United States from 2020 to 2022, the answer is a very definitive “it’s plausible!”

Answering this question starts with identifying the previous record low rate. The current record low occurred in 2014 when the FBI reported a murder rate of 4.45 per 100,000. That’s slightly lower than the murder rates reported in 2013 (4.53), 1963 (4.58) and 1962 (4.59). Prior to that the FBI didn’t really release national murder estimates with sufficient participation to rely on.

There are predictably a few disclaimers to make before beginning to evaluate the likelihood of a record low murder rate.

First, the FBI reported a 12 percent drop in murder occurred in 2023 — the most recent year of reported data — which largely matches what the Real-Time Crime Index reported for 2023 (-10.7 percent). Of course, the FBI regularly revises the most recent year of reporting so the FBI’s reported 2023 murder rate may increase to more closer align to what the RTCI showed. It could also be revised even higher which may render this entire post moot.

Second, crime data reporting is not always complete and is always imprecise. The FBI’s estimates from the 1960s occurred before state UCR programs took over and improved agency reporting practices.

Third, the 2021 data was and remains terrible but it’s being included here for the sake of completeness.

Fourth, there is still more than half the year remaining in 2025. Trends can change, even if we’re measuring them accurately now.

Fifth (adding after the initial email went out), we only have reliable national murder estimates from the FBI dating back to 1960, so “ever recorded” dates to then.

And, finally, this is just a guesstimate to answer the question “is it possible.” Maybe around Halloween we can say “it’s likely” or “it’s not happening”, but right now we can only guesstimate whether the possibility exists.

With those disclaimers in mind, let’s be conservative with the 2023 murder figure and assume the FBI is going to increase it when then 2024 Uniform Crime Report is published this Fall.

The FBI didn’t release national estimates for 2021, but murder counts for every other year from 2018 to 2022 increased when the next annual estimates were released. It stands to reason, therefore, that the 2023 murder estimate will be revised up a bit when the 2024 figures are released.

Doing so has the handy effect of bringing the 2023 count more in line with what the RTCI showed.

Let’s increase the FBI’s 2023 murder count by 200 murders to 19,450 which would be right smack in the average of 2018 and 2019’s increase. I’ve written before about why the 2023 estimates were probably better than the 2020 and 2022 estimates and so should need a smaller revision, so a revision of that magnitude makes sense during this hypothetical exercise. It could be bigger but will probably be smaller than the revisions was to the 2022 figures.

Next, the RTCI points to a 14 percent decline nationally in the current sample of more than 400 agencies in 2024. It could be a little more, could be a little less, but applying a 14 percent decline puts the US murder rate in 2024 at just under 5 per 100,000. Calculating this rate assumes an identical population growth in the FBI estimates from 2023 to 2024 as occurred form 2022 to 2023.

Note that this guesstimate puts 2024 at roughly the same level at 2018 and 2019. The RTCI has murder slightly higher in 2024 than in 2019, so it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see the murder rate slightly higher in 2024.

Which brings us to 2025 and the initial question. Will the US murder rate in 2025 be below 2014’s historic low?

The assumptions I’m using are:

1. The 2023 murder count is revised up by 200ish murders.

2. Murder fell around 14 percent in 2024 based on the RTCI meaning there were around 16,700 murders in the US in 2024.

3. The US population grew steadily from 2023 to 2024 and 2024 to 2025.

It’s still early in 2025, but murder is down an enormous amount so far. The RTCI has it down more than 20 percent through February, fatal shootings are down 14 percent in the Gun Violence Archive, the Major Cities Chiefs Association has homicide down more than 20 percent in the first quarter, and I recently found a greater than 20 percent decline in the 30 cities with the most murders in 2023.

Still, it’s early and this trend could regress back towards a more normal rate of decline. Running the numbers suggests that a 10 percent or more decline in murder nationally in 2025 would roughly tie 2014 for the lowest murder rate ever recorded.

There are a ton of hypotheticals and factors that could change, and I hate to call the 2025 figures in the below graph showing US murders and rates with the above assumptions and a 10 or 15 percent decline anything more than a guess. But it’s fairly clear that a decline in the direction we’re currently seeing would safely give 2025 the title of lowest US murder rate ever recorded.

Another way to think of it is that following the trendline in the RTCI that murder has been on since mid-2022 in the RTCI and extending it out until the end of 2025 with no change would mean about 7,000 murders in this sample of 400ish cities. This sample accounted for a little more than 49 percent of murders that were estimated nationally in 2022 and 2023, so if that held true again then you’d be looking at about 14,100 murders nationally in 2025 and a rate of 4.2 per 100k.

Still, this trend could change or the decline could soften over the remainder of the year. The decline has a floor to it — just as the increase had a ceiling — and we won’t know where it is until we reach it. The counterpart to this entire line of reasoning is that it's May and our data covers 2 or 3 complete months, tops. Reading too much into trends at this point is, much like our mini Aussie puppy, nutso bananas.

So, to definitively answer the question of whether 2025 will feature the lowest murder rate ever recorded, I would say “maybe.” The math generally checks out, and the idea that it’s even plausible just 5 years after the largest increase in murder ever recorded is quite remarkable. Still, there’s a lot of time left in 2025 and these trends could change for the worse.

If this decline continues through the Fall then we should seriously start having a discussion about the probability of a record breaking year. Until then, it’s sufficient to be aware of and measuring the possibility of a new record low.