I would love to read any ideas on why this is occurring. Are there any criminal justice theories that are reinforced or disproven by this decline? Does it help explain or reinterpret what caused the sharp rise in 2020? Is it connected somehow to the similarly timed rise and fall in drug overdoses and traffic fatalities? Are other countries seeing similar trends?
When changes this big occur, there have to be some lessons to learn. Hopefully we're learning them!
The homicide rate was an abberation from other crime trends from 2015 to 2021. As rates of burglary and robbery fell, the homicide rate spiked. Now, it is returning back toward "normal" historical standards. Why? The drug epidemic is waning, alcohol consumption is on the decline again, and firearm purchases have fallen for five straight years. All of the reasons for an escalating homicide trend have disappeared.
From I could see of the homicide data, the periods of increase (2015 and 2020-2022) were especially concentrated in demographics that are most exposed to gang violence - particularly young black males. And the declines in other years were least felt in those same demographics.
How much is gang violence fueled by alcohol and drugs? My sense is less than other types of murders. So I feel like there's some other part of these story that is related to gang-type violence, in both increasing and decreasing phases.
You're right that alcohol is not as big of an issue for gang violence, but one of the primary (systemic) reasons for conflict among/between gangs is share of drug markets. As the opioid epidemic went underground, street sales of heroin and fentanyl increased. It also gave gangs something to fight over and drug dealers a reason to rip off potential "customers."
Maybe? This is probably somewhat testable on a regional level, because the overdose wave shifted regionally, with the earliest peaks occurring in the Northeast and Appalachia, and the latest peaks occurring in parts of the Southeast, NorthWest and West. And other regions, like Texas and Plains Midwest, had somewhat modest peaks of ODs. If homicide at least loosely tracks that same pattern, then it strengthens that idea, but if it doesn't it weakens it.
I subscribe to a (https://we.tl/t-iBdu9iftqj) modified version of the lead poisoning crime hypothesis. See especially chapter 4, section 3---the actual scale of lead poisoning under a sporadic dosing regime is not well captured by "geometric mean of confirmed blood lead level" shenanigans, and even gross changes in population exposure may be missed.
Recall the early LEADSAFE rules of hand sanding and a water spray bottle for cleaning up lead paint---as if any contractors that didn't have a bankruptcy wish were going to do that, instead of use power tools. I refer here to the context of the 1992 lead paint abatement law, and de facto associated practices (think big lead dust clouds where paint was being removed, in many cases). I believe sanders with vacuum attachments and HEPA filters for shop/contractor vacuums only became popular later.
I hold that there was a building but unnoticed lead poisoning epidemic that peaked around 2001-2002.
Another matter is urban budget problems---based e.g. on comments on certain police related websites (I have Heyjackass.com in mind), police effort was often heavily invested in gang suppression, leaving other matters behind.
When the police do not even bother to investigate theft cases (a joke around here is that a murder must be very prominent to get the police to look for fingerprints), people may simply not bother to report crimes, especially if not needed e.g. for insurance purposes.
When it comes to lead, I've never studied it closely, but I would assume that lead is linked to a whole range of impulsive behaviors, and so my question is why do I only ever hear it put out there as a driver of homicide and crime? Shouldn't we see changes in everything from divorce, truancy, gambling, traffic accidents, etc.?
On the etc count, include urban teen pregnancy, although rural people tend just to form families earlier, so not such a good predictor.
It is tied to school drop-out rates. The contribution to truancy may be swamped by other social tendencies, but I have not checked.
Traffic accidents also have other contributors, that may swamp impulsive behaviour, e.g. cell phone use, ice/slippery conditions, et alia.
As for gambling, I have not investigated, but cultural considerations may make it either an impulsive behaviour (where it is frowned upon heavily) or not (I think of stereotypes of Southern China).
-;aw enforcement is back, illegals rounded up and deported, racial turmoil like we saw under Obama & with George Floyd has quieted, and the big one -- the border is closed, the massive amount of drugs that fuel the drug wars is drying up.
How did you make that table of city murder % decreases? Spot checking Denver as the top decrease, the numbers don’t match the Major Cities Chiefs Association pdf, and the RTCI as of today is only showing numbers through Feb.
Whether it happens in 2025 or not is an open question, but I think it is going to happen in the next few years. If you trace the robbery rate since 2015 - the homicide rate should be less than 4 per 100,000 by historical precedent. If drug abuse, alcohol consumption, and firearm purchases trends continue to decline, the homicide rate could be very low by American standards. These trends, coupled with the decline in teenage offending, suggest that we could fall below 3.5 per 100,000 at some point in the next few years.
Very interesting data!
I would love to read any ideas on why this is occurring. Are there any criminal justice theories that are reinforced or disproven by this decline? Does it help explain or reinterpret what caused the sharp rise in 2020? Is it connected somehow to the similarly timed rise and fall in drug overdoses and traffic fatalities? Are other countries seeing similar trends?
When changes this big occur, there have to be some lessons to learn. Hopefully we're learning them!
The homicide rate was an abberation from other crime trends from 2015 to 2021. As rates of burglary and robbery fell, the homicide rate spiked. Now, it is returning back toward "normal" historical standards. Why? The drug epidemic is waning, alcohol consumption is on the decline again, and firearm purchases have fallen for five straight years. All of the reasons for an escalating homicide trend have disappeared.
You can read more about it here: https://crimeforecast.substack.com/p/before-and-after-the-2020-homicide?r=4v7etj
And here: https://nyupress.org/9781479831166/crime-wave/
From I could see of the homicide data, the periods of increase (2015 and 2020-2022) were especially concentrated in demographics that are most exposed to gang violence - particularly young black males. And the declines in other years were least felt in those same demographics.
How much is gang violence fueled by alcohol and drugs? My sense is less than other types of murders. So I feel like there's some other part of these story that is related to gang-type violence, in both increasing and decreasing phases.
You're right that alcohol is not as big of an issue for gang violence, but one of the primary (systemic) reasons for conflict among/between gangs is share of drug markets. As the opioid epidemic went underground, street sales of heroin and fentanyl increased. It also gave gangs something to fight over and drug dealers a reason to rip off potential "customers."
Maybe? This is probably somewhat testable on a regional level, because the overdose wave shifted regionally, with the earliest peaks occurring in the Northeast and Appalachia, and the latest peaks occurring in parts of the Southeast, NorthWest and West. And other regions, like Texas and Plains Midwest, had somewhat modest peaks of ODs. If homicide at least loosely tracks that same pattern, then it strengthens that idea, but if it doesn't it weakens it.
I shall bite, from another angle.
I subscribe to a (https://we.tl/t-iBdu9iftqj) modified version of the lead poisoning crime hypothesis. See especially chapter 4, section 3---the actual scale of lead poisoning under a sporadic dosing regime is not well captured by "geometric mean of confirmed blood lead level" shenanigans, and even gross changes in population exposure may be missed.
Recall the early LEADSAFE rules of hand sanding and a water spray bottle for cleaning up lead paint---as if any contractors that didn't have a bankruptcy wish were going to do that, instead of use power tools. I refer here to the context of the 1992 lead paint abatement law, and de facto associated practices (think big lead dust clouds where paint was being removed, in many cases). I believe sanders with vacuum attachments and HEPA filters for shop/contractor vacuums only became popular later.
I hold that there was a building but unnoticed lead poisoning epidemic that peaked around 2001-2002.
Another matter is urban budget problems---based e.g. on comments on certain police related websites (I have Heyjackass.com in mind), police effort was often heavily invested in gang suppression, leaving other matters behind.
When the police do not even bother to investigate theft cases (a joke around here is that a murder must be very prominent to get the police to look for fingerprints), people may simply not bother to report crimes, especially if not needed e.g. for insurance purposes.
When it comes to lead, I've never studied it closely, but I would assume that lead is linked to a whole range of impulsive behaviors, and so my question is why do I only ever hear it put out there as a driver of homicide and crime? Shouldn't we see changes in everything from divorce, truancy, gambling, traffic accidents, etc.?
On the etc count, include urban teen pregnancy, although rural people tend just to form families earlier, so not such a good predictor.
It is tied to school drop-out rates. The contribution to truancy may be swamped by other social tendencies, but I have not checked.
Traffic accidents also have other contributors, that may swamp impulsive behaviour, e.g. cell phone use, ice/slippery conditions, et alia.
As for gambling, I have not investigated, but cultural considerations may make it either an impulsive behaviour (where it is frowned upon heavily) or not (I think of stereotypes of Southern China).
your answers:
-;aw enforcement is back, illegals rounded up and deported, racial turmoil like we saw under Obama & with George Floyd has quieted, and the big one -- the border is closed, the massive amount of drugs that fuel the drug wars is drying up.
How did you make that table of city murder % decreases? Spot checking Denver as the top decrease, the numbers don’t match the Major Cities Chiefs Association pdf, and the RTCI as of today is only showing numbers through Feb.
I gathered data from each individual city. Denver has a dashboard that they update daily:
https://denvergov.org/Government/Agencies-Departments-Offices/Agencies-Departments-Offices-Directory/Police-Department/Crime-Information
I hope you didn't just jynx it.
Whether it happens in 2025 or not is an open question, but I think it is going to happen in the next few years. If you trace the robbery rate since 2015 - the homicide rate should be less than 4 per 100,000 by historical precedent. If drug abuse, alcohol consumption, and firearm purchases trends continue to decline, the homicide rate could be very low by American standards. These trends, coupled with the decline in teenage offending, suggest that we could fall below 3.5 per 100,000 at some point in the next few years.
Should it be 1962 and 1963 instead of 1963 twice?
"1963 (4.58) and 1963 (4.59)"