Where would a 10 percent decline in murder this year rank with homicide declines in the 20th Century?
Well-said. The two biggest takeaways from this are not only the good news of this year, but also that the so-called "good old days" were far more violent than many people seem to think. And given today's high levels of economic inequality approaching Gilded Age levels, it's surprising that the murder rate isn't much higher than it is. (And while we have much better lifesaving medical treatment now making assaults less lethal, we also have more efficient and more readily available killing machines now at the same time.)
getting some concern of a 60 year cycle punctuated by 30-40 year 'violent phases' followed by 20-30 year periods of tranquility based on this graph.
Good article. Thanks!!!
Are homicide rates dropping or is trauma care improving?
During Covid trauma care suffered due to overstressed ER staff. Now that staffing is returning to normal trauma care is improving.
Aggravated assaults are increasing and within the aggravated assault statistics are assaults with a deadly weapon and attempt murders. And even while there’s a slight drop in gun violence - knife violence and other assaults are up. Perhaps look at trauma care centers and overlay homicides on the same map. Maybe compare Kern Co which has only 4 with LA that has 11. Maybe also look at air ambulance service. Kern has a higher official homicide rate. But does it really? Or does LA just so a better job of saving lives ?
In short I think murderous intent is far higher than the homicide numbers show and that were trauma care not as good as it now is the homicide numbers would be much higher.
This also means would be murderers are getting far shorter sentences than they would otherwise deserve.
Why is murder down so much especially when cities have been losing police at near record levels? Are there any compelling explanations?