That is exactly the problem with crime statistics. Any city/state with high numbers will be hesitant to accurately report, or may chose to not report at all. Any attempt to say crime is up or down is suspect.
For New Orleans we use the Calls for Sevice open data that identifies shootings with a Report to Follow disposition. This mimics NOPD shooting data nearly exactly (I've audited it before)
Through Decades of work in the field along with research I found over 70% of all gun murders are tethered to illegal drug disputes. So is most non-violent and violent crime. Seems to me repealing drug prohibition would increase Public Safety significantly. There's a link for you to check out, don't worry it's fine lawenforcementactionpartnership.org
Hi Jeff: You write that "Gun violence is clearly falling nationally which shows up in city samples and it shows up in Gun Violence Archive data." Maybe it's the switch to daylight savings muddying my cognitive abilities but the chart (city-pre-covid-now-percent change) seems to indicate rising not decreasing shootings for most cities. Am I reading this correctly?
My contention in this case is that the trend is clearly down most places while the level is still higher than 2019 (though converging) most places. And fully agree with you on the perception gap! I had hoped the FBI Q4 data would be out by now which should give good confidence in the reported trend for 2023 though we have to wait 6 more months for NCVS.
I have a friend who retired from Memphis’ PD. They don’t want to publish that data, it would look terrible.
That is exactly the problem with crime statistics. Any city/state with high numbers will be hesitant to accurately report, or may chose to not report at all. Any attempt to say crime is up or down is suspect.
How did you pull the shooting data for New Orleans? I am struggling a lot. I am trying to pull the data from their open data portal (ex 2024: https://data.nola.gov/Public-Safety-and-Preparedness/Electronic-Police-Report-2024/c5iy-ew8n), but I am noticing several issues, like repeat 'item_number' that seem too big. For example: 'A-11290-21'.
Hi Raf,
For New Orleans we use the Calls for Sevice open data that identifies shootings with a Report to Follow disposition. This mimics NOPD shooting data nearly exactly (I've audited it before)
I see, I don't think I would've been able to figure that out on my own, thank you!
Through Decades of work in the field along with research I found over 70% of all gun murders are tethered to illegal drug disputes. So is most non-violent and violent crime. Seems to me repealing drug prohibition would increase Public Safety significantly. There's a link for you to check out, don't worry it's fine lawenforcementactionpartnership.org
Hi Jeff: You write that "Gun violence is clearly falling nationally which shows up in city samples and it shows up in Gun Violence Archive data." Maybe it's the switch to daylight savings muddying my cognitive abilities but the chart (city-pre-covid-now-percent change) seems to indicate rising not decreasing shootings for most cities. Am I reading this correctly?
I just offered https://www.crimeinamerica.net/so-its-impossible-to-have-an-honest-conversation-about-crime/ and I plan on following this with an overview of recent crime articles. My premise is that statistics and perceptions are clashing.
Thanks, Len.
Hey Len,
My contention in this case is that the trend is clearly down most places while the level is still higher than 2019 (though converging) most places. And fully agree with you on the perception gap! I had hoped the FBI Q4 data would be out by now which should give good confidence in the reported trend for 2023 though we have to wait 6 more months for NCVS.
Thanks Jeff. Best, Len.