Talking about reported crime is completely ignoring the elephant in the room. By your own estimate unreported crime was 50% of reported crime 4 years ago. It is now many multiples of reported crime because:
Police defunded and demonized.
Police response times grew to 4 to 5 hours.
It's a minor misdemeanor or less to steal $1000 a day or do drugs.
Arrests and prosecutions are through the floor.
There are minor consequences in the very unlikely event of a conviction.
Retaliation by free criminals on victims and witnesses.
All homicides. Number of deaths: 24,849; Deaths per 100,000 population: 7.5. Source: National Vital Statistics System – Mortality Data (2022) via CDC WONDER ...
I don't care about rates per 100,000-- they mean nothing to the average reader unless you know the population of your city. I care about actual human beings killed, what their ages and ethnicities were and who killed them; actual dead people -- i.e., 560 people in Chicago were killed last year (in what neighborhoods would be nice to know too). It's no wonder average Americans overestimate the instances and rates of all crime. The media exaggerate all violent crimes, fail to put them in perspective and fail to point out that a huge percentage of homicide victims are young black males who have been killing each other for at least 40 years. The national and local media are too chicken-shit to point out the realities of crime and black leaders are loathe to address the slaughter in their midst. That's why I wrote this: https://clips.substack.com/p/2023-another-year-of-slaughter-for?utm_source=publication-search
Like James, per BJS, approximately 40 percent of violent crimes are reported to law enforcement. A 3.5 percent decline in violent crime could easily be a 3.5 percent increase. You offer a wonderful service but sooner or later, we need to consider describing increases or decreases as "reported" crime. I understand that we live in a world where we embrace simplicity but in the medical or scientific communities, we would never create policy based on data where the vast majority of "known" incidents (via the National Crime Victimization Survey) were not part of the equation. Thanks for everything you do. Regardless as to how it's described, real time data, however flawed, is better than year end data. Len.
I'll take those numbers! Of course there is lots of room for improvement but we are going in the right direction. You can replace property, but a life is impossible to resurrect. And of course looking at over the decades trends we are still in a better part of the curve. Will the voters believe, or even bother to check the data, or just listen to the toxic rhetoric from one side of the isles?
Talking about reported crime is completely ignoring the elephant in the room. By your own estimate unreported crime was 50% of reported crime 4 years ago. It is now many multiples of reported crime because:
Police defunded and demonized.
Police response times grew to 4 to 5 hours.
It's a minor misdemeanor or less to steal $1000 a day or do drugs.
Arrests and prosecutions are through the floor.
There are minor consequences in the very unlikely event of a conviction.
Retaliation by free criminals on victims and witnesses.
Prosecutions
Why do the homicide numbers you report equal about half of these: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention | CDC (.gov)
https://www.cdc.gov › nchs › fastats › homicide
All homicides. Number of deaths: 24,849; Deaths per 100,000 population: 7.5. Source: National Vital Statistics System – Mortality Data (2022) via CDC WONDER ...
I don't care about rates per 100,000-- they mean nothing to the average reader unless you know the population of your city. I care about actual human beings killed, what their ages and ethnicities were and who killed them; actual dead people -- i.e., 560 people in Chicago were killed last year (in what neighborhoods would be nice to know too). It's no wonder average Americans overestimate the instances and rates of all crime. The media exaggerate all violent crimes, fail to put them in perspective and fail to point out that a huge percentage of homicide victims are young black males who have been killing each other for at least 40 years. The national and local media are too chicken-shit to point out the realities of crime and black leaders are loathe to address the slaughter in their midst. That's why I wrote this: https://clips.substack.com/p/2023-another-year-of-slaughter-for?utm_source=publication-search
Like James, per BJS, approximately 40 percent of violent crimes are reported to law enforcement. A 3.5 percent decline in violent crime could easily be a 3.5 percent increase. You offer a wonderful service but sooner or later, we need to consider describing increases or decreases as "reported" crime. I understand that we live in a world where we embrace simplicity but in the medical or scientific communities, we would never create policy based on data where the vast majority of "known" incidents (via the National Crime Victimization Survey) were not part of the equation. Thanks for everything you do. Regardless as to how it's described, real time data, however flawed, is better than year end data. Len.
I'll take those numbers! Of course there is lots of room for improvement but we are going in the right direction. You can replace property, but a life is impossible to resurrect. And of course looking at over the decades trends we are still in a better part of the curve. Will the voters believe, or even bother to check the data, or just listen to the toxic rhetoric from one side of the isles?
It’s a good macro trend! If this holds true, however, you couldn’t blame Chicago or DC-area voters for having a little more to complain about.