Has anyone attempted an explanation for what has occurred in Philadelphia? Boston getting press for its drop but numbers are so low that it is almost anecdotal.
"Maine was the only state with a double digit increase in murder due to the October 2023 mass shooting in Lewiston" -- your chart shows Rhode Island +11. Maybe a slip-up?
28 cities and countries didn’t submit their 2023 crime stats to Cal DOJ. Including San Jose PD and San Bernardino Sheriff’s Office. Between that’s over 90 murders based on 2022 stats. The other 26 probably account for a significant number. I’d put California undercount at 120-140.
San Jose submitted as did San Bernardino CO. There were fewer agencies that didn't report in 2022 than in 2023 though nearly all of those agencies were small and accounted for a tiny fraction of crimes.
As I note in the piece "but the sample may be overstating the change because some agencies may not have reported 2023 data that reported 2022 data" so there's a healthy amount of uncertainty still attached, but I don't think it changes the CA number all that much.
Wrong again. That’s the cumulative total of cities within San Bernardino Co. not the County itself. If you look there was a drop of 98 murders in 2023 over 2022. That was not a drop. It’s a missing agency In this case San Bernardino County sheriff.
It’s a huge undercount
Your link is a searchable version of Californias admitted undercount.
I think you're vastly overstating the undercount. San Bernardino city reported fully, they just had a massive decline. The county sheriff and Victorville appear to have reported but not fully which is impacting the grand total but it's not clear how much because neither place publishes crime data. My guess is it might move the needle in California by 2 or so percent (maybe 50ish underreported murders) just back of the napkin mathing the paces for each of those two places. Other places in the county with multiple murders appear to have fully reported.
Has anyone attempted an explanation for what has occurred in Philadelphia? Boston getting press for its drop but numbers are so low that it is almost anecdotal.
"Maine was the only state with a double digit increase in murder due to the October 2023 mass shooting in Lewiston" -- your chart shows Rhode Island +11. Maybe a slip-up?
Blergh! You're right. Will fix, thanks!
CDC homicide victim count is also around 10-12% lower. It's gathered from a very different source (death certificates) so it's a great cross-check.
28 cities and countries didn’t submit their 2023 crime stats to Cal DOJ. Including San Jose PD and San Bernardino Sheriff’s Office. Between that’s over 90 murders based on 2022 stats. The other 26 probably account for a significant number. I’d put California undercount at 120-140.
So much for a 14 percent drop
San Jose submitted as did San Bernardino CO. There were fewer agencies that didn't report in 2022 than in 2023 though nearly all of those agencies were small and accounted for a tiny fraction of crimes.
They didn’t. Page 5.
https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2024-07/Crime%20In%20CA%202023f.pdf
Tiny?!? The missing Orange Co cities combined population is nearly 500,000
They clearly reported murder data for 2023, it may not have been a full year but they reported 29 murders here:
https://openjustice.doj.ca.gov/exploration/crime-statistics/crimes-clearances
And 35 murders reported for 2023 online (https://www.sjpd.org/records/crime-stats-maps/police-dashboards and https://www.sjpd.org/records/crime-stats-maps/crime-statistics-monthly
As I note in the piece "but the sample may be overstating the change because some agencies may not have reported 2023 data that reported 2022 data" so there's a healthy amount of uncertainty still attached, but I don't think it changes the CA number all that much.
Wrong again. That’s the cumulative total of cities within San Bernardino Co. not the County itself. If you look there was a drop of 98 murders in 2023 over 2022. That was not a drop. It’s a missing agency In this case San Bernardino County sheriff.
It’s a huge undercount
Your link is a searchable version of Californias admitted undercount.
I think you're vastly overstating the undercount. San Bernardino city reported fully, they just had a massive decline. The county sheriff and Victorville appear to have reported but not fully which is impacting the grand total but it's not clear how much because neither place publishes crime data. My guess is it might move the needle in California by 2 or so percent (maybe 50ish underreported murders) just back of the napkin mathing the paces for each of those two places. Other places in the county with multiple murders appear to have fully reported.
https://www.sbcity.org/common/pages/DownloadFileByUrl.aspx?key=rl%2bzSn3P7LinUxwSL%2fXsK8wjvZ%2bQVCXrToS6jHIxbmnj4lLmX3AA%2f8LLUGq5ICRvohx9wjKDTp0RBmj4825FC07NEezAckkle9VT8sd7fdXvvrS%2f1OvHTeoSdzQrAIIck6bqneyzineJ0G1J7K4w0b3dWBP9DomYcG3LTPwOkURPNiF8svBXmQvknADfSI7uxISQCbqE7U9Tr7ijrD4S%2fSkeyJUIam4C2ZJSIA5a3Zvq9GTKcS7q6CXwgCAtzS9vL7%2bmZA%3d%3d
Anyhow, not here for an argument, have a good one!
You’re conflating cities with the unincorporated jurisdiction