To focus on “reported” crime is to ignore the elephant in the room, “Unreported” crime. The result is that people from poor and fringe neighborhoods are being abused daily and living in totally intolerable conditions while the analyst and media mistakenly insinuate crime is going down.
Something totally unprecedented has occurred in poor and fringe neighborhoods over the last 4 years, something you formerly only saw in third world countries.
1. Laws have changed making drug possession, use, and distribution legal.
2. It is now a non-prosecutable misdemeanor or less to steal up to $1000 a day.
3. It is now a non-prosecutable misdemeanor to empty the shelves of local stores multiple times.
4. It is now a non-prosecutable crime to mug, rob, beat, and assault people on the street or public transportation
5. Police have been neutered, and can no longer stop, search, chase or arrest suspected criminals.
6. Police have been demonized to the point where no sane person would ever aspire to be a cop.
7. Police have been defunded to the point where there is no proactive crime deterrence.
8. Police response times have risen from 30 minutes to 4 or 5 hours.
9. Police are powerless to stop retaliation against victims or witnesses who report crimes.
10. Arrests have dropped through the floor.
11. Soft-on-crime prosecutors reduce felonies to misdemeanors or no-crimes 60% of the time.
12. Prosecutions have dropped through the floor.
13. In the unlikely event of both an arrest, and a prosecution, the possibility of any serious consequence for committing a crime is virtually zero.
Because of the above, justifiably no sane victim or witness will report a crime anymore. The result is “Unreported” crime which 4 years ago was estimated at 60% of “reported” crime, is now many times larger than “reported” crime. “Reported” and “unreported crime are inversely related.
Solution: The reason given for focusing on the FBI statistics for “reported” crime, and not focusing on the much larger number of “unreported” crime is it is too difficult to estimate “unreported” crime. I would suggest that the Federal Government will pay for phone or in-person surveys of representative samples of the people in these neighborhoods and the results be extrapolated. A version of the following simple questions would suffice:
1. In the last year have you or a family member been a victim of a crime? How many? Did you or they report the crime?
2. In the past year have you or a family member witnessed a crime? How many? Was the crime reported?
3. In the past year, do you or a family member know anyone who was a victim of a crime? How many? Was the crime reported?
You really need to google National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), I think you've missed the existence of this long running victimization survey, that covers much more than you are asking for, which is based on interviews, not police reporting.
But I suspect whomever is feeding you these points you have presented it is aware of it.
Hii Jeff: Per Gallup, The United States and Canada (and Sub-Saharan Africa) are the only regions of the world where perceptions of safety decreased because of crime. For the US and Canada, it declined from 76 percent in 2006 to 72 percent in 2023.
For the rest of the world, perceptions of safety increased. In 2023, 70% of adults worldwide said they feel safe walking alone at night where they live, which is considerably higher than it was a decade ago and at most points in Gallup’s nearly 20-year trend. However, progress has stalled on this measure in the past several years, and slightly fewer people today feel safe than in 2020 when a record-high 72% felt safe.
Gallup’s latest annual update on global safety shows people worldwide feel safer today than they did a decade ago, but many countries have a long way to go to achieve the “peaceful societies” that are essential for sustainable development.
Reported crime increased in Canada. The National Crime Victimization Survey in the US offered data (interpreted by you and others) that there was a 44 percent increase in violent crime in 2022 and that violence was essentially unchanged for 2023.
While there was no mention of political affiliation throughout the world, per Gallup, we in the US and Canada plus the Sub-Saharan area of Africa are the only areas where "fear" increased.
It certainly doesn't help that right wing media is constantly saying crime is rising. Playing to a mainly white consecutive audience who's also been indoctrinated into racism and white supremacy. Though I have seen a disturbing trend by both the democrats/liberals and the Democrats siding with the MAGA crowd on immigration and crime😞
I don't think you can really treat this topic in a passably decent manner without opening a large can of worms, so to speak. Even if you want to avoid political polarization as a topic.
You'd have to touch on the history of how communications media treats crime, back to the first days of print news, up to today, where almost everyone is walking around with a camera and can share the video from the camera *with the globe* in the space of a few heart beats.
You'd also have to touch upon some fundamental premises from psychology or economics, to deal with how 'perceptions' are formed. And how people evaluate data and statistics.
It's easy to be a rational 'believer' and assume it's a simple step to just share with 'people' the results you produce, assuming they are accepting of your scientific rational thought, the reality is another matter.
Right wing news media talks about and reports on crime way more than other outlets —especially in the run up to an election
To focus on “reported” crime is to ignore the elephant in the room, “Unreported” crime. The result is that people from poor and fringe neighborhoods are being abused daily and living in totally intolerable conditions while the analyst and media mistakenly insinuate crime is going down.
Something totally unprecedented has occurred in poor and fringe neighborhoods over the last 4 years, something you formerly only saw in third world countries.
1. Laws have changed making drug possession, use, and distribution legal.
2. It is now a non-prosecutable misdemeanor or less to steal up to $1000 a day.
3. It is now a non-prosecutable misdemeanor to empty the shelves of local stores multiple times.
4. It is now a non-prosecutable crime to mug, rob, beat, and assault people on the street or public transportation
5. Police have been neutered, and can no longer stop, search, chase or arrest suspected criminals.
6. Police have been demonized to the point where no sane person would ever aspire to be a cop.
7. Police have been defunded to the point where there is no proactive crime deterrence.
8. Police response times have risen from 30 minutes to 4 or 5 hours.
9. Police are powerless to stop retaliation against victims or witnesses who report crimes.
10. Arrests have dropped through the floor.
11. Soft-on-crime prosecutors reduce felonies to misdemeanors or no-crimes 60% of the time.
12. Prosecutions have dropped through the floor.
13. In the unlikely event of both an arrest, and a prosecution, the possibility of any serious consequence for committing a crime is virtually zero.
Because of the above, justifiably no sane victim or witness will report a crime anymore. The result is “Unreported” crime which 4 years ago was estimated at 60% of “reported” crime, is now many times larger than “reported” crime. “Reported” and “unreported crime are inversely related.
Solution: The reason given for focusing on the FBI statistics for “reported” crime, and not focusing on the much larger number of “unreported” crime is it is too difficult to estimate “unreported” crime. I would suggest that the Federal Government will pay for phone or in-person surveys of representative samples of the people in these neighborhoods and the results be extrapolated. A version of the following simple questions would suffice:
1. In the last year have you or a family member been a victim of a crime? How many? Did you or they report the crime?
2. In the past year have you or a family member witnessed a crime? How many? Was the crime reported?
3. In the past year, do you or a family member know anyone who was a victim of a crime? How many? Was the crime reported?
You really need to google National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), I think you've missed the existence of this long running victimization survey, that covers much more than you are asking for, which is based on interviews, not police reporting.
But I suspect whomever is feeding you these points you have presented it is aware of it.
Hii Jeff: Per Gallup, The United States and Canada (and Sub-Saharan Africa) are the only regions of the world where perceptions of safety decreased because of crime. For the US and Canada, it declined from 76 percent in 2006 to 72 percent in 2023.
For the rest of the world, perceptions of safety increased. In 2023, 70% of adults worldwide said they feel safe walking alone at night where they live, which is considerably higher than it was a decade ago and at most points in Gallup’s nearly 20-year trend. However, progress has stalled on this measure in the past several years, and slightly fewer people today feel safe than in 2020 when a record-high 72% felt safe.
Gallup’s latest annual update on global safety shows people worldwide feel safer today than they did a decade ago, but many countries have a long way to go to achieve the “peaceful societies” that are essential for sustainable development.
Reported crime increased in Canada. The National Crime Victimization Survey in the US offered data (interpreted by you and others) that there was a 44 percent increase in violent crime in 2022 and that violence was essentially unchanged for 2023.
While there was no mention of political affiliation throughout the world, per Gallup, we in the US and Canada plus the Sub-Saharan area of Africa are the only areas where "fear" increased.
See https://www.crimeinamerica.net/gallup-the-us-and-canada-feel-less-safe-because-of-crime-podcast-available/
Best, Len.
It certainly doesn't help that right wing media is constantly saying crime is rising. Playing to a mainly white consecutive audience who's also been indoctrinated into racism and white supremacy. Though I have seen a disturbing trend by both the democrats/liberals and the Democrats siding with the MAGA crowd on immigration and crime😞
*Conservative. Stupid auto correct 🤦♀️
I don't think you can really treat this topic in a passably decent manner without opening a large can of worms, so to speak. Even if you want to avoid political polarization as a topic.
You'd have to touch on the history of how communications media treats crime, back to the first days of print news, up to today, where almost everyone is walking around with a camera and can share the video from the camera *with the globe* in the space of a few heart beats.
You'd also have to touch upon some fundamental premises from psychology or economics, to deal with how 'perceptions' are formed. And how people evaluate data and statistics.
It's easy to be a rational 'believer' and assume it's a simple step to just share with 'people' the results you produce, assuming they are accepting of your scientific rational thought, the reality is another matter.
Anecdotal evidence is king in the everyday world.