Jeff, as you say, you're a "keyboard jockey sitting in New Orleans." You have your niche and you're doing a great job within it. But I'm in Washington, D.C. and your analysis seems bloodless and out-of-context.
This is what Trump said about DC: “Our capital city has been overtaken by violent gangs and bloodthirsty criminals, roving mobs of wild youth, drugged out maniacs and homeless people.... Caravans of mass youth rampage through city streets at all times of the day. They're on ATVs, motorbikes, they travel pretty well..... Today, we're formally declaring a public safety emergency. This is an emergency. This is a tragic emergency and it's embarrassing for me to be up here."
Only the last eight words are true. As you know, DC's violent crime rate was lower in 2024 than any time in the past 30+ years. Whatever the nitpicking, our violent crime rate is now lower in 2025 than in 2024. There are no roving gangs, mobs, maniacs, or mass youth rampage, and no emergency. This is all a big lie, which is a well-known tactic, literally from the fascist handbook.
We now have mobs of federal police and national guardsmen roaming our streets, not knowing what they are doing. This is a disgrace to America; our foreign allies are appalled and our enemies are laughing at us. I hope it never happens in New Orleans, but I think this is a test-run and you will be subjected to the same sooner or later.
So, maybe your columns could start with the overall truth before you get to your detailed data?
1) I think the News Media is being dishonest in its reporting re Washington DC. If you live in Northwest DC (Wards 1-3) then things may be peachy keen. Life is much different in Wards 8 and 7 south of the Anacostia River. But those people are poor so beneath the notice of the Washington Post and NY Times.
Note the MUCH higher number of homicides recently: 2022: 80 ; 2023: 98 ; 2024: 66
The same is true in Ward 7: 2013: 23 homicides 2014: 28
2022: 47 2023: 56 2024: 45
3) In my opinion, the News Media’s loud claim that violence has been falling in the past 30 years is an example of lying with statistics. Concealing things by diluting the homicides in Ward 7 and 8 with much larger population of the city as a whole.
4) Ward 8 population is 87,043. Using the usual measure of homicides per 100,000 , Ward 8’s homicide rate was 113 per 100,000 in 2023 and 76 in 2024.
5) The homicide rate in the US is 5 per 100,000 (FBI UCR 2024). In Mexico City it is 11 per 100,000. In Iraq it is 6 per 100,000. In Pakistan it is 4 per 100,000.
6) Our loyalty should be to our fellow Americans --especially to those most likely to be with our sons in the foxholes of the next war – and not to political parties. I say that as a registered Democrat who worked as a volunteer in Howard Dean and Barack Obama's Presidential campaigns and in the campaigns of several Democratic candidates for Congress.
And instead of defending the overall truth you would rather blanket this in hatred for the president with a longwinded and rather incorrect diatribe? As a person that isn’t a keyboard jockey, a person that lived this as a street cop - become more objective and take the politics out of your equation. Come out from behind your white picket fence and into the real deal. You may wind up agreeing with Trump after you see how muddied the water are in the world of Criminal Statistic gathering.
So your crime is lower now than last year when it was still a higher incidence t of crime? Do you understand what CompStat is? I suggest that you read up on that and the improprieties in the NYPD with that and you’ll see that numbers with downward trends with no specific conditions set forth by law enforcement should be handled with suspicion.
Agreed but let’s take one more step and ask ourselves if any rational adult in DC actually believes that Trump has our best interests at heart and that this isn’t just another colossal distraction from his failure/refusal to release the Epstein files. American civil liberties are taking a huge step backwards to obfuscate the sex crimes of some wealthy old men.
Please. Refresh your tin foil hat. Biden was in office for four years. Trump, from the moment he declared his candidacy to run again was persecuted, arrested, prosecuted, and even an attempted assassination on his life, not once but twice. Multiple outdated redundant misdemeanors stacked up that writhing the NYS PL mandated that such an amount of misdemeanors created felonies, without any victims would be enough to get him off the ballot. Combined with states trying to remove him from the ballot, and failing. Don’t you think a simple release of such files would have been authorized by Bidens DoJ? That even today an Obama judge is the one stating these files can’t be released - if Trump was mentioned even in one sentence that wouldn’t have already been written exposed? You’re throwing the proverbial spaghetti to see where it sticks, again. Move on from the nonsense. It’s a nothing burger and you’re sitting on the wrong side of history. DC is now ground zero for suppressing violent crime. Those that protest about it are obviously not residents of DC, or they are white libs that stand in false pretense so that crime doesn’t come to their suburban towns in Maryland and Virginia. You make a comment about sex crimes by old white men being obfuscated. Yet you ignore the fact that young black men’s lives are endangered by other young black men. But obviously it’s a play out of the left’s strategical play book. Go after the contrasting ideology without caring about the very people you want to champion - because you really don’t.
Even if that data is tainted? Turning burglaries into trespass, grand theft auto into joyriding, felony assaults into misdemeanors, attempted murders into Assaults, robberies into larcenies…did you even add to the fact that a metro DC commander has been suspended for cooking the books on stats? This is a practice that goes back to 1994 in the NYPD - I know first hand because I lived it, and I complained about it.
Nationwide data shows that both Violent and Property Crime are down dramatically all across The Land of The (used to be) Free.
Is it your contention is that somehow, some way, the "metro DC" cops have figured out how to cook the books on ALL of the crime data/analyses from the FBI, BJS, CDC, Gun Violence Archive, Pew Research, Johns Hopkins, Brennan Center, Jeff-Alytics, ad Nauseam…? An impressive feat, that.
Like you, I don't have the data to comment on data manipulation, but I would like to focus on the serious problem with insinuating “reported” crime is the same thing as total crime which includes "unreported" crime. The result is that people from poor and fringe neighborhoods are being abused daily and living in totally intolerable conditions while the analyst and media mistakenly insinuate total crime is going down. The only three crimes where reported crime may have some correlation to actual numbers are murder, carjackings, and shootings where a bullet hole in a human being forces the victim to seek medical attention. These crimes are usually reported for obvious reasons.
Something totally unprecedented has occurred in poor and fringe neighborhoods over the last 4 years, something you formerly only saw in third world countries. Virtually, nobody will report theft, robbery, assault, harassment, physical threats, or display of or firing a gun because:
1. Laws have changed making drug possession, use, and distribution legal.
2. It is now a non-prosecutable misdemeanor or less to steal up to $1,000 or $1,500 a day in over half the states and $2,500 a day in some states.
3. It is now a non-prosecutable misdemeanor to empty the shelves of local stores multiple times.
4. It is now a non-prosecutable crime to mug, rob, beat, and assault people on the street or public transportation because they are always plead down to misdemeanor or no-crime.
5. Police have been neutered, and can no longer stop, search, chase or arrest suspected criminals.
6. Police have been demonized to the point where no sane person would ever aspire to be a cop.
7. Police have been defunded to the point where there is no proactive crime deterrence.
8. Police response times have risen from 30 minutes or less to 4 or 5 hours.
9. Police are powerless to stop retaliation against victims or witnesses who report crimes.
10. Cashless bail puts the criminal back at the victim's or witness's door the same day as the crime.
11. Arrests have dropped through the floor, and not because crime has decreased.
12. Soft-on-crime prosecutors reduce felonies to misdemeanors or no-crimes in the vast majority of cases.
13. Prosecutions have dropped through the floor. Every arrest but the most serious of crimes is pled down to no consequence.
14. In the unlikely event of both an arrest, and a prosecution, the possibility of any serious consequence for committing a crime is virtually zero.
15. And last but probably most important retaliation by the criminal or his gang makes it impossible for any victim or witness to ever appear in court.
Because of the above, justifiably no sane victim or witness will report a crime anymore. The result is “Unreported” crime which 4 years ago was estimated at 60% of “reported” crime, is now many times larger than “reported” crime. “Reported” and “unreported crime are now inversely correlated. No one can disagree that the above 15 items have and are occurring and that they discourage reporting of crime.
Evidence: take a look at your violent shooting rates for Chicago. But ShotSpotter records 360,000 shots fired annually, each discharge of a weapon in the city is a felony, not counting a citizen threatened, mugged, assaulted, or robbed, none of which is ever reported. Every time I am in a drug store or food store or big box store there are tons of folks picking up merchandise and walking out. Store personnel are told to not intervene. In Cook County you can now steal $999 eight times, and it’s OK. Nobody reports this. Have you adjusted the FBI "reported crime" stats to compensate for this? Please stop saying crime is down until you get a handle on "Unreported Crime”. I have hundreds of family and friends living in daily fear in these neighborhoods and it really destroys them when they hear crime is down, when its totally out of control in the neighborhoods of our most defenseless. At the very least, there should be a footnote on all crime reports (other than murder, car jackings, and shootings requiring medical attention) that this data only represents “reported crime”, and it is estimated that “unreported crime” could easily exceed “reported crime” by many times.
This is what Grok had to say about that: The comment raises valid concerns about the distinction between reported and total crime, particularly in underserved neighborhoods, and attributes a supposed surge in unreported crime to recent policy shifts. While unreported crime has long been a significant issue in the US—historically accounting for around 50-60% of incidents based on victimization surveys—research from sources like the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) does not support the claim of a dramatic recent increase in unreported incidents or an “inverse correlation” with reported crime. Instead, both reported crime (via FBI Uniform Crime Reporting, or UCR) and total victimization rates (which include unreported incidents) have generally declined from 2021-2025, with some fluctuations during the early pandemic years. For instance, the NCVS indicates that the violent victimization rate fell from 23.5 per 1,000 persons in 2022 to 22.5 in 2023, and further decreased in 2024, while property victimization also dropped. [4] [5] [11] Reporting rates have remained relatively stable, with about 42% of violent crimes and 32% of property crimes reported in 2022, similar to pre-2020 levels. [8] This suggests that while underreporting persists, especially in low-income areas due to factors like distrust of police or fear of retaliation, it hasn’t ballooned to “many times larger” than reported crime as claimed.
The comment correctly notes that murders, carjackings, and shootings requiring medical attention are among the most reliably reported crimes, as they often involve mandatory hospital or coroner notifications. NCVS data shows reporting rates for these can exceed 80-90%, compared to lower rates for theft or assault. [3] [9] However, the assertion that “virtually nobody” reports other crimes like theft, robbery, or assault due to recent changes is overstated. Victimization surveys indicate consistent underreporting for these offenses over decades, driven by longstanding issues like perceived futility or minor perceived harm, rather than a sudden “unprecedented” shift post-2020.
Evaluating the 15 listed reasons:
1. Drug possession/use/distribution has been decriminalized in some jurisdictions (e.g., Oregon’s Measure 110 in 2020, partially reversed in 2024; cannabis legalization in over 20 states). Studies on these changes show no clear causal link to reduced reporting of unrelated crimes like theft or assault. In Oregon, crime trends remained stable or declined post-decriminalization, with no evidence of broader underreporting spikes. [82] [91]
2-3. Theft thresholds for felony charges have been raised in many states (e.g., $950 in California via Prop 47; up to $2,500 in Texas and Wisconsin), but research from Pew and others finds no correlation with increased property crime or larceny rates. Shoplifting and “emptying shelves” incidents may be underreported due to store policies against intervention, but this predates recent changes and hasn’t driven overall crime up. [29] [30] [33]
1. Plea deals reducing felonies to misdemeanors occur frequently, but prosecution rates for violent crimes have actually improved in some areas (e.g., murder clearance rates rose from 49% in 2021 to 61% in 2024 nationally). No widespread data supports a post-2020 drop in reporting due to this. [69] [74]
5-7. Post-2020 protests led to some restrictions on stops/searches/chases in certain cities, alongside recruitment challenges and brief “defund” efforts (many reversed by 2022-2023). Evidence is mixed: some studies link reduced proactive policing to temporary crime increases in 2020-2021, but others show no overall effect on crime rates or reporting. Increased funding doesn’t reliably reduce crime, and many departments have seen budgets rebound. [48] [50] [61]
1. Police response times have indeed lengthened in many cities post-2020 (e.g., averages rose from 51 minutes in 2019 to 146 in New Orleans by 2022; similar trends in Seattle and Nashville). This can discourage reporting, but times vary widely (national average around 10-15 minutes for emergencies), and improvements are noted in 2024-2025 data for some areas.   
9 & 15. Witness/victim retaliation is a real barrier to reporting, especially in gang-related or high-violence areas, and federal laws (18 U.S.C. §§ 1512-1513) criminalize it. However, this issue isn’t new or uniquely worse post-2020; NCVS data shows fear of reprisal as a consistent factor in 10-20% of unreported cases. No research indicates it’s now the “most important” driver or has made reporting “impossible.”   
1. Bail reforms (e.g., cashless bail in states like New York and Illinois) have been implemented since 2019-2020. Multiple studies, including from the Brennan Center and Loyola, find no causal link to increased crime or reduced reporting; recidivism rates remained stable or slightly decreased.   
11-13. Arrest rates dropped sharply in 2020 due to COVID restrictions, reduced proactive policing, and policy shifts, but have partially rebounded. For example, drug arrests fell 27% from 2019-2020 but stabilized. Prosecutions vary by city, with some progressive DAs reducing charges, but national clearance rates for violent crimes improved by 2024. These changes correlate more with pandemic disruptions than a direct cause of underreporting.  
1. Consequences for crimes aren’t “virtually zero,” as conviction rates for arrested felonies hover around 60-70% nationally, though low clearance rates mean many crimes go unsolved.
On Chicago: ShotSpotter data historically showed 80,000-100,000 alerts annually (not 360,000), with only a small fraction leading to confirmed crimes or arrests. Post-removal in 2024, shootings and homicides dropped 17-37% in covered areas, suggesting the system didn’t significantly boost reporting or deterrence.  
2. [PDF] Criminal Victimization, 2023 - Bureau of Justice Statistics - In 2023, the rate of violent victimization was 22.5 per 1,000, higher than in 2021 but stable overall. - https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv23.pdf
6. [PDF] Criminal Victimization, 2022 - Bureau of Justice Statistics - Findings based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). - https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv22.pdf
8. National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) - The nation’s primary source of information on criminal victimization. - https://bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/ncvs
9. Carjacking Victimization, 1995–2021 - E-Report - Published: Sep 30, 2022 - Nonfatal carjacking victimization rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.15 per 1,000 over 2012–2021. - https://bjs.ojp.gov/carjacking-victimization-1995-2021
32. From defunding to refunding police: institutions and the persistence of policing budgets - Published: May 31, 2023 - Crime increases in some cities post-defund. - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10231296/
I concur with your take, Jeff. There's some noise, but it's coming from reporting by MPDC. It's not as if the NIBRS reporting is the result of independent counting or auditing from the FBI. I might, given some of the complexity in NIBRS reporting, actually put more weight on the department public reporting as most accurate if not entirely matching. What do you think the role of NIBRS is here in inherently raising the number of reported crimes? The traditional UCR model was hierarchical, report the most serious offence involved. NIBRS captures multiple offences in a single incident. I've seen estimates that it accounts for a low percentage of increase but that resounds differently to an analyst and a law enforcement chief executive.
I've spent convivial hours in the bar at both the old and new FOP lodge in DC. Lodge 1, in fact. folks are convinced that there is motivation by the brass to cook the books downward, I would note there is motivation by the union to got the other way a bit. The FOP endorses for President based on the vote of the Lodge members and has endorsed POTUS. I'm not seeing a chef in the data Jeff has published and analyzed
It's not that your stats are right or wrong - and I believe they are correct. It's the Trump angle that Dems are up in arms about. Don't believe me? The Democrat Governor of New Mexico activated the NM National Guard in April 2025 to patrol the streets of Albuquerque without controversy.
Hi Jeff: BJS recently offered "Only 38 Percent of Urban Crimes Are Reported To Law Enforcement."
The 38% figure comes from a BJS report titled “Reporting to Police by Type of Crime and Location of Residence, 2020–2023″. The report breaks down reporting rates by area type:
Urban areas: approximately 38% of violent victimizations were reported to police
Suburban areas: about 43%
Rural areas: around 51%
National or local "reported" crime figures vastly understate the degree of crime, especially for urban areas, and especially for property crimes. Based on this data, the 4.5 percent national decrease in violence for 2024 could be a theoretical increase of 4.5 percent.
Having said this, your data for D.C. or elsewhere remains trustworthy. It may be a sample, but it's large enough to establish trends.
As to D.C., you can make whatever case you want as to crime statistics, as stated by several national publications. But 65 percent of D.C. residents told The Washington Post that crime was a “very” or “extremely” serious problem last year, even as violence declined. D.C. was ranked 2nd in the country for rates of homicides for cities with a population of 400,000-one million. D.C. was ranked 4th overall for homicides in 2024 per a university study, and as you know, homicides historically correlate nicely with overall crime statistics.
Is the surge in D.C. justified? We will have to wait for the results, but it's a radical departure from past practices. I traveled to high-crime cities courtesy of the federal government, and I have never seen sections of a city (D.C.) where practically every house has bars on the doors and windows. Yet the politics makes me uncomfortable.
I am very curious about the citywide increase in robberies in 2023-2024. Why? what kind of robberies? If not carjackings, then what? I hope that this article prompts many agencies to compare the public data to what was reported to the FBI. I would bet money that very few departments do that with any consistency.
A theft accomplished by force of fear is a robbery. And you are wrong. Data analysis is robust and ongoing both within law enforcement, in political circles, think tanks, advocacy groups, and universities
I know what constitutes a robbery and I also know that quality, actionable analysis is being done all over the place. I remain curious about the citywide increase in 2023 and I believe that few agencies consistently compare what is reported to the FBI with what is shared publicly.
Data analysis is robust and ongoing - it’s the data that is tainted. I can’t tell you how many reports that I took and properly classified as a specific crime wound up being finalized as either a lower classified crime or altogether reduced to a violation (non-crime). All in the name of statistics for local administrations for political gain. Data starts in the streets from the preliminary investigation, and goes askew after it leaves the sergeants desk.
Jeff, as you say, you're a "keyboard jockey sitting in New Orleans." You have your niche and you're doing a great job within it. But I'm in Washington, D.C. and your analysis seems bloodless and out-of-context.
This is what Trump said about DC: “Our capital city has been overtaken by violent gangs and bloodthirsty criminals, roving mobs of wild youth, drugged out maniacs and homeless people.... Caravans of mass youth rampage through city streets at all times of the day. They're on ATVs, motorbikes, they travel pretty well..... Today, we're formally declaring a public safety emergency. This is an emergency. This is a tragic emergency and it's embarrassing for me to be up here."
Only the last eight words are true. As you know, DC's violent crime rate was lower in 2024 than any time in the past 30+ years. Whatever the nitpicking, our violent crime rate is now lower in 2025 than in 2024. There are no roving gangs, mobs, maniacs, or mass youth rampage, and no emergency. This is all a big lie, which is a well-known tactic, literally from the fascist handbook.
We now have mobs of federal police and national guardsmen roaming our streets, not knowing what they are doing. This is a disgrace to America; our foreign allies are appalled and our enemies are laughing at us. I hope it never happens in New Orleans, but I think this is a test-run and you will be subjected to the same sooner or later.
So, maybe your columns could start with the overall truth before you get to your detailed data?
1) I think the News Media is being dishonest in its reporting re Washington DC. If you live in Northwest DC (Wards 1-3) then things may be peachy keen. Life is much different in Wards 8 and 7 south of the Anacostia River. But those people are poor so beneath the notice of the Washington Post and NY Times.
2) Ref: https://www.crimedatadc.com/ward/8
Number of homicides in Ward 8 in 2013-2014: 35,40
Note the MUCH higher number of homicides recently: 2022: 80 ; 2023: 98 ; 2024: 66
The same is true in Ward 7: 2013: 23 homicides 2014: 28
2022: 47 2023: 56 2024: 45
3) In my opinion, the News Media’s loud claim that violence has been falling in the past 30 years is an example of lying with statistics. Concealing things by diluting the homicides in Ward 7 and 8 with much larger population of the city as a whole.
4) Ward 8 population is 87,043. Using the usual measure of homicides per 100,000 , Ward 8’s homicide rate was 113 per 100,000 in 2023 and 76 in 2024.
5) The homicide rate in the US is 5 per 100,000 (FBI UCR 2024). In Mexico City it is 11 per 100,000. In Iraq it is 6 per 100,000. In Pakistan it is 4 per 100,000.
6) Our loyalty should be to our fellow Americans --especially to those most likely to be with our sons in the foxholes of the next war – and not to political parties. I say that as a registered Democrat who worked as a volunteer in Howard Dean and Barack Obama's Presidential campaigns and in the campaigns of several Democratic candidates for Congress.
And instead of defending the overall truth you would rather blanket this in hatred for the president with a longwinded and rather incorrect diatribe? As a person that isn’t a keyboard jockey, a person that lived this as a street cop - become more objective and take the politics out of your equation. Come out from behind your white picket fence and into the real deal. You may wind up agreeing with Trump after you see how muddied the water are in the world of Criminal Statistic gathering.
So your crime is lower now than last year when it was still a higher incidence t of crime? Do you understand what CompStat is? I suggest that you read up on that and the improprieties in the NYPD with that and you’ll see that numbers with downward trends with no specific conditions set forth by law enforcement should be handled with suspicion.
Agreed but let’s take one more step and ask ourselves if any rational adult in DC actually believes that Trump has our best interests at heart and that this isn’t just another colossal distraction from his failure/refusal to release the Epstein files. American civil liberties are taking a huge step backwards to obfuscate the sex crimes of some wealthy old men.
Please. Refresh your tin foil hat. Biden was in office for four years. Trump, from the moment he declared his candidacy to run again was persecuted, arrested, prosecuted, and even an attempted assassination on his life, not once but twice. Multiple outdated redundant misdemeanors stacked up that writhing the NYS PL mandated that such an amount of misdemeanors created felonies, without any victims would be enough to get him off the ballot. Combined with states trying to remove him from the ballot, and failing. Don’t you think a simple release of such files would have been authorized by Bidens DoJ? That even today an Obama judge is the one stating these files can’t be released - if Trump was mentioned even in one sentence that wouldn’t have already been written exposed? You’re throwing the proverbial spaghetti to see where it sticks, again. Move on from the nonsense. It’s a nothing burger and you’re sitting on the wrong side of history. DC is now ground zero for suppressing violent crime. Those that protest about it are obviously not residents of DC, or they are white libs that stand in false pretense so that crime doesn’t come to their suburban towns in Maryland and Virginia. You make a comment about sex crimes by old white men being obfuscated. Yet you ignore the fact that young black men’s lives are endangered by other young black men. But obviously it’s a play out of the left’s strategical play book. Go after the contrasting ideology without caring about the very people you want to champion - because you really don’t.
Thanks again, Jeff.
Data talks (tho' it doesn't always enunciate well);
BS walks…
Even if that data is tainted? Turning burglaries into trespass, grand theft auto into joyriding, felony assaults into misdemeanors, attempted murders into Assaults, robberies into larcenies…did you even add to the fact that a metro DC commander has been suspended for cooking the books on stats? This is a practice that goes back to 1994 in the NYPD - I know first hand because I lived it, and I complained about it.
Nationwide data shows that both Violent and Property Crime are down dramatically all across The Land of The (used to be) Free.
Is it your contention is that somehow, some way, the "metro DC" cops have figured out how to cook the books on ALL of the crime data/analyses from the FBI, BJS, CDC, Gun Violence Archive, Pew Research, Johns Hopkins, Brennan Center, Jeff-Alytics, ad Nauseam…? An impressive feat, that.
PS: Anecdotal evidence is an oxymoron.
We saw what soft-on-crime policy was like for the last 30 years and what it’s done to black communities. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but midnight basketball doesn’t work. https://torrancestephensphd.substack.com/p/white-milksops-protest-in-dc-to-advocate
Like you, I don't have the data to comment on data manipulation, but I would like to focus on the serious problem with insinuating “reported” crime is the same thing as total crime which includes "unreported" crime. The result is that people from poor and fringe neighborhoods are being abused daily and living in totally intolerable conditions while the analyst and media mistakenly insinuate total crime is going down. The only three crimes where reported crime may have some correlation to actual numbers are murder, carjackings, and shootings where a bullet hole in a human being forces the victim to seek medical attention. These crimes are usually reported for obvious reasons.
Something totally unprecedented has occurred in poor and fringe neighborhoods over the last 4 years, something you formerly only saw in third world countries. Virtually, nobody will report theft, robbery, assault, harassment, physical threats, or display of or firing a gun because:
1. Laws have changed making drug possession, use, and distribution legal.
2. It is now a non-prosecutable misdemeanor or less to steal up to $1,000 or $1,500 a day in over half the states and $2,500 a day in some states.
3. It is now a non-prosecutable misdemeanor to empty the shelves of local stores multiple times.
4. It is now a non-prosecutable crime to mug, rob, beat, and assault people on the street or public transportation because they are always plead down to misdemeanor or no-crime.
5. Police have been neutered, and can no longer stop, search, chase or arrest suspected criminals.
6. Police have been demonized to the point where no sane person would ever aspire to be a cop.
7. Police have been defunded to the point where there is no proactive crime deterrence.
8. Police response times have risen from 30 minutes or less to 4 or 5 hours.
9. Police are powerless to stop retaliation against victims or witnesses who report crimes.
10. Cashless bail puts the criminal back at the victim's or witness's door the same day as the crime.
11. Arrests have dropped through the floor, and not because crime has decreased.
12. Soft-on-crime prosecutors reduce felonies to misdemeanors or no-crimes in the vast majority of cases.
13. Prosecutions have dropped through the floor. Every arrest but the most serious of crimes is pled down to no consequence.
14. In the unlikely event of both an arrest, and a prosecution, the possibility of any serious consequence for committing a crime is virtually zero.
15. And last but probably most important retaliation by the criminal or his gang makes it impossible for any victim or witness to ever appear in court.
Because of the above, justifiably no sane victim or witness will report a crime anymore. The result is “Unreported” crime which 4 years ago was estimated at 60% of “reported” crime, is now many times larger than “reported” crime. “Reported” and “unreported crime are now inversely correlated. No one can disagree that the above 15 items have and are occurring and that they discourage reporting of crime.
Evidence: take a look at your violent shooting rates for Chicago. But ShotSpotter records 360,000 shots fired annually, each discharge of a weapon in the city is a felony, not counting a citizen threatened, mugged, assaulted, or robbed, none of which is ever reported. Every time I am in a drug store or food store or big box store there are tons of folks picking up merchandise and walking out. Store personnel are told to not intervene. In Cook County you can now steal $999 eight times, and it’s OK. Nobody reports this. Have you adjusted the FBI "reported crime" stats to compensate for this? Please stop saying crime is down until you get a handle on "Unreported Crime”. I have hundreds of family and friends living in daily fear in these neighborhoods and it really destroys them when they hear crime is down, when its totally out of control in the neighborhoods of our most defenseless. At the very least, there should be a footnote on all crime reports (other than murder, car jackings, and shootings requiring medical attention) that this data only represents “reported crime”, and it is estimated that “unreported crime” could easily exceed “reported crime” by many times.
This is what Grok had to say about that: The comment raises valid concerns about the distinction between reported and total crime, particularly in underserved neighborhoods, and attributes a supposed surge in unreported crime to recent policy shifts. While unreported crime has long been a significant issue in the US—historically accounting for around 50-60% of incidents based on victimization surveys—research from sources like the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) does not support the claim of a dramatic recent increase in unreported incidents or an “inverse correlation” with reported crime. Instead, both reported crime (via FBI Uniform Crime Reporting, or UCR) and total victimization rates (which include unreported incidents) have generally declined from 2021-2025, with some fluctuations during the early pandemic years. For instance, the NCVS indicates that the violent victimization rate fell from 23.5 per 1,000 persons in 2022 to 22.5 in 2023, and further decreased in 2024, while property victimization also dropped. [4] [5] [11] Reporting rates have remained relatively stable, with about 42% of violent crimes and 32% of property crimes reported in 2022, similar to pre-2020 levels. [8] This suggests that while underreporting persists, especially in low-income areas due to factors like distrust of police or fear of retaliation, it hasn’t ballooned to “many times larger” than reported crime as claimed.
The comment correctly notes that murders, carjackings, and shootings requiring medical attention are among the most reliably reported crimes, as they often involve mandatory hospital or coroner notifications. NCVS data shows reporting rates for these can exceed 80-90%, compared to lower rates for theft or assault. [3] [9] However, the assertion that “virtually nobody” reports other crimes like theft, robbery, or assault due to recent changes is overstated. Victimization surveys indicate consistent underreporting for these offenses over decades, driven by longstanding issues like perceived futility or minor perceived harm, rather than a sudden “unprecedented” shift post-2020.
Evaluating the 15 listed reasons:
1. Drug possession/use/distribution has been decriminalized in some jurisdictions (e.g., Oregon’s Measure 110 in 2020, partially reversed in 2024; cannabis legalization in over 20 states). Studies on these changes show no clear causal link to reduced reporting of unrelated crimes like theft or assault. In Oregon, crime trends remained stable or declined post-decriminalization, with no evidence of broader underreporting spikes. [82] [91]
2-3. Theft thresholds for felony charges have been raised in many states (e.g., $950 in California via Prop 47; up to $2,500 in Texas and Wisconsin), but research from Pew and others finds no correlation with increased property crime or larceny rates. Shoplifting and “emptying shelves” incidents may be underreported due to store policies against intervention, but this predates recent changes and hasn’t driven overall crime up. [29] [30] [33]
1. Plea deals reducing felonies to misdemeanors occur frequently, but prosecution rates for violent crimes have actually improved in some areas (e.g., murder clearance rates rose from 49% in 2021 to 61% in 2024 nationally). No widespread data supports a post-2020 drop in reporting due to this. [69] [74]
5-7. Post-2020 protests led to some restrictions on stops/searches/chases in certain cities, alongside recruitment challenges and brief “defund” efforts (many reversed by 2022-2023). Evidence is mixed: some studies link reduced proactive policing to temporary crime increases in 2020-2021, but others show no overall effect on crime rates or reporting. Increased funding doesn’t reliably reduce crime, and many departments have seen budgets rebound. [48] [50] [61]
1. Police response times have indeed lengthened in many cities post-2020 (e.g., averages rose from 51 minutes in 2019 to 146 in New Orleans by 2022; similar trends in Seattle and Nashville). This can discourage reporting, but times vary widely (national average around 10-15 minutes for emergencies), and improvements are noted in 2024-2025 data for some areas.   
9 & 15. Witness/victim retaliation is a real barrier to reporting, especially in gang-related or high-violence areas, and federal laws (18 U.S.C. §§ 1512-1513) criminalize it. However, this issue isn’t new or uniquely worse post-2020; NCVS data shows fear of reprisal as a consistent factor in 10-20% of unreported cases. No research indicates it’s now the “most important” driver or has made reporting “impossible.”   
1. Bail reforms (e.g., cashless bail in states like New York and Illinois) have been implemented since 2019-2020. Multiple studies, including from the Brennan Center and Loyola, find no causal link to increased crime or reduced reporting; recidivism rates remained stable or slightly decreased.   
11-13. Arrest rates dropped sharply in 2020 due to COVID restrictions, reduced proactive policing, and policy shifts, but have partially rebounded. For example, drug arrests fell 27% from 2019-2020 but stabilized. Prosecutions vary by city, with some progressive DAs reducing charges, but national clearance rates for violent crimes improved by 2024. These changes correlate more with pandemic disruptions than a direct cause of underreporting.  
1. Consequences for crimes aren’t “virtually zero,” as conviction rates for arrested felonies hover around 60-70% nationally, though low clearance rates mean many crimes go unsolved.
On Chicago: ShotSpotter data historically showed 80,000-100,000 alerts annually (not 360,000), with only a small fraction leading to confirmed crimes or arrests. Post-removal in 2024, shootings and homicides dropped 17-37% in covered areas, suggesting the system didn’t significantly boost reporting or deterrence.  
Sources:
1. Criminal Victimization, 2023 | Bureau of Justice Statistics - Published: Sep 12, 2024 - The rate of violent victimization was 22.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2023. - https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/criminal-victimization-2023
2. [PDF] Criminal Victimization, 2023 - Bureau of Justice Statistics - In 2023, the rate of violent victimization was 22.5 per 1,000, higher than in 2021 but stable overall. - https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv23.pdf
3. 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) | NAVAA - Approximately 45% of violent victimizations were reported to police in 2023, similar to 2022. - https://navaa.org/2023-national-crime-victimization-survey-ncvs/
4. When Crime Statistics Diverge - Council on Criminal Justice - UCR reported a 2% drop in violent crime from 2021 to 2022, while NCVS showed fluctuations. - https://counciloncj.org/when-crime-statistics-diverge/
5. Violent victimization unchanged year over year and at prepandemic levels - Published: Sep 12, 2024 - Violent victimization rates remained stable from 2022 to 2023. - https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDOJOJP_COMMS/bulletins/3b54e02
6. [PDF] Criminal Victimization, 2022 - Bureau of Justice Statistics - Findings based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). - https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv22.pdf
7. Custom Graphics: Multi-Year Trends: Crime Type - NCVS Dashboard - Rate of violent victimizations by crime type, 1993-2023. - https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/multi-year-trends/crimeType
8. National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) - The nation’s primary source of information on criminal victimization. - https://bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/ncvs
9. Carjacking Victimization, 1995–2021 - E-Report - Published: Sep 30, 2022 - Nonfatal carjacking victimization rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.15 per 1,000 over 2012–2021. - https://bjs.ojp.gov/carjacking-victimization-1995-2021
10. Violent Victimization is Decreasing—But Not for Everyone - Nonlethal violent victimization decreased by 11% in 2023. - https://counciloncj.org/violent-victimization-is-decreasing-but-not-for-everyone/
11. Rising crime, overdoses reflect pre-pandemic trends – not drug decriminalization - Published: Aug 14, 2025 - Crime and overdose trends in Oregon post-Measure 110. - https://www.opb.org/article/2025/08/14/psu-study-crime-overdose-pandemic-trends/
12. Oregon shouldn’t go backwards on drug decriminalization - Published: Feb 15, 2024 - Crime in Oregon was 14% lower in 2023 than in 2020. - https://www.prisonpolicy.org/blog/2024/02/15/oregon-110/
13. Did Oregon’s Drug Decriminalization Increase Crime or Overdoses? - Published: Aug 15, 2025 - Property crime saw a brief increase but returned to pre-pandemic levels. - https://www.cato.org/blog/did-oregons-drug-decriminalization-increase-crime-or-overdoses-separating-short-term-spikes
14. Public calls for service to the police: Trends before and during drug decriminalization in Oregon - Oregon decriminalized possession from 2021 to 2024. - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0955395925001343
15. Drug Decriminalization, Fentanyl, and Fatal Overdoses in Oregon - Recriminalized in March 2024. - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11378001/
16. California Proposition 47: The Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act - Predicted better health and safety outcomes. - https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/data-visualizations/2015/hia-map/state/california/california-proposition-47-the-safe-neighborhoods-and-schools-act
17. Proposition 47’s Impact on California’s Criminal Justice System | KQED - Published: Feb 14, 2024 - Shifted drug and property crimes to misdemeanors. - https://www.kqed.org/news/11975692/prop-47s-impact-on-californias-criminal-justice-system
18. Crime after Proposition 47 and the Pandemic - Published: Sep 4, 2024 - Arrests for drug and property crimes plummeted. - https://www.ppic.org/publication/crime-after-proposition-47-and-the-pandemic/
19. Did Prop 47 increase crime in California? A major study says yes - Published: Oct 18, 2024 - Property crime rose, but shoplifting decreased by 2%. - https://www.reddit.com/r/sanfrancisco/comments/1g6izyw/did_prop_47_increase_crime_in_california_a_major/
20. Shoplifting Trends: What You Need to Know - Median value of stolen goods grew from $75 in 2019 to $100 in 2021. - https://counciloncj.org/shoplifting-trends-what-you-need-to-know/
21. Myth vs. Reality: Trends in Retail Theft | Brennan Center for Justice - Published: Mar 7, 2024 - Shoplifting rose steadily since 2006, with a spike in 2022. - https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/myth-vs-reality-trends-retail-theft
22. Between the Aisles: A Closer Look at Shoplifting Trends - Shoplifting levels remain higher than pre-pandemic rates through 2024. - https://counciloncj.org/between-the-aisles-a-closer-look-at-shoplifting-trends/
23. New shoplifting data explains why they’re locking up the toothpaste - Published: Dec 19, 2024 - Shoplifting rate increased by 3% in 2024. - https://stateline.org/2024/12/19/new-shoplifting-data-explains-why-theyre-locking-up-the-toothpaste/
24. FBI Releases 2024 Reported Crimes in the Nation Statistics - Published: Aug 5, 2025 - Murder decreased by 14.9% in 2024. - https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2024-reported-crimes-in-the-nation-statistics
25. Nationwide 2024 Crime Data Demonstrate the Value of Violence Prevention - Published: Aug 5, 2025 - Historic lows in murder and violent crime rates. - https://www.americanprogress.org/article/nationwide-2024-crime-data-demonstrate-the-value-of-violence-prevention-and-local-law-enforcement/
26. FBI Releases 2024 Quarterly Crime Report and Use-of-Force Data - Published: Jun 10, 2024 - Violent crime decreased by 15.2%. - https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2024-quarterly-crime-report-and-use-of-force-data-update
27. Actually, Murder Clearance Rates Probably Rose A Good Bit In 2024 - Published: Jun 30, 2025 - DC’s murder clearance rate correlated with number of murders. - https://jasher.substack.com/p/actually-murder-clearance-rates-probably
28. How proactive policing can move forward: An evidence-based roadmap - Published: May 14, 2025 - Using research for proactive strategies. - https://www.police1.com/patrol-issues/how-proactive-policing-can-move-forward-an-evidence-based-roadmap
29. The 2020 De-Policing: An Empirical Analysis - Published: Nov 24, 2023 - No association between reduced proactive policing and crime in 53 cities. - https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/10986111231218438
30. Proactive policing | EBSCO Research Starters - Proactive policing can reduce crime but raises ethical questions. - https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/law/proactive-policing
31. The Truth Behind Crime Statistics: Avoiding Distortions - Increased police funding does not decrease crime. - https://www.naacpldf.org/the-truth-behind-crime-statistics/
32. From defunding to refunding police: institutions and the persistence of policing budgets - Published: May 31, 2023 - Crime increases in some cities post-defund. - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10231296/
33. An investigative analysis into the correlation between police department funding and crime - Quantitative study on funding effects. - https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/17508/
34. Longer police response times alarm citizens across the U.S. - Published: Jun 21, 2024 - Response times from 13 minutes in 2019 to 16 in 2022. - https://okcfox.com/news/nation-world/longer-police-response-times-alarm-citizens-across-the-us-due-to-staffing-shortages-nashville-tennessee-open-the-books-emergency-cops-deputy-police-department
35. Police Are Taking Longer To Respond - Published: Jan 9, 2023 - Response times increased in 2022 across agencies. - https://jasher.substack.com/p/police-are-taking-longer-to-respond
36. Police Response Times Improve In Many Cities, But Still Higher Than In 2019 - Published: Jul 14, 2025 - Averages rose significantly in some cities. - https://crimjj.wordpress.com/2025/07/14/police-response-times-improve-in-many-cities-but-still-higher-than-in-2019/
37. [PDF] Criminal Victimization, 2023 - Reasons for not reporting include fear of reprisal. - https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv23.pdf
38. [PDF] Criminal Victimization, 2022 - Data on reported and unreported crimes. - https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv22.pdf
39. National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) Series - ICPSR - Includes reasons for non-reporting. - https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/NACJD/series/95
40. No Evidence Connecting Bail Reform with Crime Rates - Published: Sep 11, 2024 - No relationship between bail reforms and crime trends. - https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/no-evidence-connecting-bail-reform-crime-rates
41. Does Bail Reform Impact Crime? | Brennan Center for Justice - Published: Aug 15, 2024 - Examined trends in 22 cities. - https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/does-bail-reform-impact-crime
42. [PDF] Examining the System-Wide Effect of Eliminating Bail in New York City - No impact on crime. - https://datacollaborativeforjustice.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/cits_final.pdf
43. Illinois Bail Reform Makes Justice System More Equitable and Fair - Published: Sep 18, 2023 - Crime rates not higher post-reform. - https://www.macfound.org/press/perspectives/illinois-bail-reform-makes-justice-system-more-equitable-and-fair
44. FBI — Table 43 - 2019 arrest data by race and ethnicity. - https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/tables/table-43
45. FBI’s Crime Data Explorer (CDE) - Access to arrest and crime data. - https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/
46. 50-state violent crime data - CSG Justice Center - Clearance rates decreased in 32 states from 2019-2023. - https://projects.csgjusticecenter.org/tools-for-states-to-address-crime/50-state-crime-data/
47. [PDF] 2023 Annual Report | Chicago Police Department - Firearm discharges and shots fired data. - https://www.chicagopolice.org/wp-content/uploads/2023-Annual-Report.pdf
48. The Impact of Gunshot Detection Technology on Gun Violence - Effects in Kansas City and Chicago. - https://nij.ojp.gov/library/publications/impact-gunshot-detection-technology-gun-violence-kansas-city-and-chicago-multi
49. ShotSpotter Routinely Missed Reported Shootings, City Data Shows - Published: Oct 9, 2024 - Missed at least 180 gun homicides. - https://southsideweekly.com/shotspotter-routinely-missed-reported-shootings-city-data-shows/
50. CPD Data Shows Steep Drop in Shootings, Homicides - Published: Aug 7, 2025 - 17.8% decrease in violent crime post-ShotSpotter. - https://news.wttw.com/2025/08/07/cpd-data-shows-steep-drop-shootings-homicides-neighborhoods-where-shotspotter-was
51. Chicago’s Recent Crime Trends - Published: Aug 12, 2025 - Decreases in both ShotSpotter and non-ShotSpotter areas. - https://www.soundthinking.com/blog/chicagos-recent-crime-trends/
52. Assessing DC’s Violent Crime Trends - by Jeff Asher - Published: Aug 11, 2025 - Violent crime fell in 2024 and 2025. - https://jasher.substack.com/p/assessing-dcs-violent-crime-trends
53. Evaluating Crime Reporting in Washington, DC - Published: Aug 18, 2025 - Violent crime trends in DC for 2025. - https://jasher.substack.com/p/evaluating-crime-reporting-in-washington
54. Assessing Crime At Midyear - Published: Jul 21, 2025 - Mid-2025 crime assessments. - https://jasher.substack.com/p/assessing-crime-at-midyear
55. Unpacking National Crime Statistics - Published: Sep 17, 2024 - Differences between UCR and NCVS in 2020. - https://johnkroman.substack.com/p/unpacking-national-crime-statistics
56. Did Violent Crime Go Up or Down? Yes, It Did. - Published: Oct 18, 2023 - UCR showed drop in violent crime. - https://counciloncj.org/did-violent-crime-go-up-or-down-last-year-yes-it-did/
57. The UCR vs NCVS Conundrum - Published: Apr 8, 2024 - Violent crime trends discrepancies. - https://jasher.substack.com/p/the-ucr-vs-ncvs-conundrum
I concur with your take, Jeff. There's some noise, but it's coming from reporting by MPDC. It's not as if the NIBRS reporting is the result of independent counting or auditing from the FBI. I might, given some of the complexity in NIBRS reporting, actually put more weight on the department public reporting as most accurate if not entirely matching. What do you think the role of NIBRS is here in inherently raising the number of reported crimes? The traditional UCR model was hierarchical, report the most serious offence involved. NIBRS captures multiple offences in a single incident. I've seen estimates that it accounts for a low percentage of increase but that resounds differently to an analyst and a law enforcement chief executive.
I've spent convivial hours in the bar at both the old and new FOP lodge in DC. Lodge 1, in fact. folks are convinced that there is motivation by the brass to cook the books downward, I would note there is motivation by the union to got the other way a bit. The FOP endorses for President based on the vote of the Lodge members and has endorsed POTUS. I'm not seeing a chef in the data Jeff has published and analyzed
It's not that your stats are right or wrong - and I believe they are correct. It's the Trump angle that Dems are up in arms about. Don't believe me? The Democrat Governor of New Mexico activated the NM National Guard in April 2025 to patrol the streets of Albuquerque without controversy.
Hi Jeff: BJS recently offered "Only 38 Percent of Urban Crimes Are Reported To Law Enforcement."
The 38% figure comes from a BJS report titled “Reporting to Police by Type of Crime and Location of Residence, 2020–2023″. The report breaks down reporting rates by area type:
Urban areas: approximately 38% of violent victimizations were reported to police
Suburban areas: about 43%
Rural areas: around 51%
National or local "reported" crime figures vastly understate the degree of crime, especially for urban areas, and especially for property crimes. Based on this data, the 4.5 percent national decrease in violence for 2024 could be a theoretical increase of 4.5 percent.
Having said this, your data for D.C. or elsewhere remains trustworthy. It may be a sample, but it's large enough to establish trends.
As to D.C., you can make whatever case you want as to crime statistics, as stated by several national publications. But 65 percent of D.C. residents told The Washington Post that crime was a “very” or “extremely” serious problem last year, even as violence declined. D.C. was ranked 2nd in the country for rates of homicides for cities with a population of 400,000-one million. D.C. was ranked 4th overall for homicides in 2024 per a university study, and as you know, homicides historically correlate nicely with overall crime statistics.
Is the surge in D.C. justified? We will have to wait for the results, but it's a radical departure from past practices. I traveled to high-crime cities courtesy of the federal government, and I have never seen sections of a city (D.C.) where practically every house has bars on the doors and windows. Yet the politics makes me uncomfortable.
Thanks for what you are doing. Len.
I am very curious about the citywide increase in robberies in 2023-2024. Why? what kind of robberies? If not carjackings, then what? I hope that this article prompts many agencies to compare the public data to what was reported to the FBI. I would bet money that very few departments do that with any consistency.
A theft accomplished by force of fear is a robbery. And you are wrong. Data analysis is robust and ongoing both within law enforcement, in political circles, think tanks, advocacy groups, and universities
I know what constitutes a robbery and I also know that quality, actionable analysis is being done all over the place. I remain curious about the citywide increase in 2023 and I believe that few agencies consistently compare what is reported to the FBI with what is shared publicly.
Data analysis is robust and ongoing - it’s the data that is tainted. I can’t tell you how many reports that I took and properly classified as a specific crime wound up being finalized as either a lower classified crime or altogether reduced to a violation (non-crime). All in the name of statistics for local administrations for political gain. Data starts in the streets from the preliminary investigation, and goes askew after it leaves the sergeants desk.