Hi Jeff: The data is what the data is. FBI numbers have their issues but it's all we have as to reported crime. There's nothing wrong with making assumptions using big city dashboards as long as people understand it's limitations.
Based on "Unmasking The Discrepancy: The Overlooked Surge in Violent Crime" addressing a 44 percent increase in violent crime per the 2022 National Crime Victimization Survey.........
The Need For A National Survey-The Great Majority Of Crimes Are Not Reported
The National Crime Victimization Survey was promoted 50 years ago as NECESSARY for understanding crime in America because the vast majority of crime is not reported to law enforcement.
The latest 2022 data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics indicates that 42 percent of violent crime is reported and 32 percent of property crimes are reported. So what the FBI (or big city crime dashboards) offer is a small portion of crime in the US.
Approximately 75-80 percent of what we call crime is property-related. If 32 percent of property crimes are reported, then that means that the overwhelming majority of crimes in the US are not brought to the attention of law enforcement.
Only 7 percent of identity thefts were reported to law enforcement per the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Are we to make policy based on the reported 7 percent or the 93 percent that happened and were not reported?
The National Crime Victimization Survey was demanded by those concerned with understanding the totality of crime in America. The national media criticized a system where only a small percentage of crime was analyzed. Criminologists and politicians insisted on accurate counts.
Now, it’s ignored.
Crimes Reported To Law Enforcement Have Big Issues With Reliability and Accuracy
Beyond being a small subset of total crime, there are other issues to consider with reported crimes:
There is a long history of manipulating data (including homicides) downward at the local level for endless reasons. In Washington, D.C., there are disputes over what counts as a homicide.
There is well-documented mistrust among some minority communities and law enforcement leading to a reluctance to report crimes.
The majority of violent crimes involve someone the victim knows (including family members) making crime reporting difficult. Many of these events are seen by the victim as a private matter.
The wait times for police officers to arrive at a crime scene can be considerable, well over an hour is common. We have lost thousands of police officers due to resignation and retirement. If there’s no report because people were tired of waiting for officers to arrive, there’s no crime counted.
Major law enforcement organizations are still having issues transitioning to the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System (although the percentage has greatly improved). Some suggest that it’s having an impact on crime reporting.
There are over 18,000 police agencies in the US. Getting all to define and report crime accurately is a daunting task. For example, there are thousands of law enforcement agencies stating that there were no hate crimes in their jurisdiction for the latest reporting period.
Some states and cities promote “crime-free” housing meaning that occupants could lose their homes if a crime (i.e., domestic violence) is reported.
Note that arrests have plummeted over the last two decades and arrests declined sharply since the beginning of the police use of force protests (2014) and COVID-19 (2020) thus there is evidence that events affect numbers. If there’s no arrest, was the crime counted in official statistics?
Let’s go back to the Bureau Of Justice Statistics report itself and look at the vast increases in groups. There are two categories, overall rates of violence and rates of what the Bureau of Justice Statistics calls “serious violent crime” (excluding simple assaults). Results:
Huge increases in overall rates of violence and serious violence.
There are huge increases in violence and serious violence for crimes against females.
Huge increases in violence and serious violence for crimes for African Americans and Whites.
Rates doubled for serious violent crimes for Hispanics.
Rates doubled for serious violent crimes for those aged 12-17.
Rates doubled for serious violent crimes for those aged 50 and above.
Rates skyrocketed for serious violent crimes for those in the poorest category.
So for me what you are using for data (big city crime dashboards) is appropriate and useful. The homicide data is probably 98 percent accurate and homicides have traditionally been used as an indicator of overall crime.
It's just that people need to comprehend the limitations of that data. For example, Baltimore has very high rates of crime and violence and they seem to be declining for 2023 police reports. But Maryland can be seen as one large city (with some rural counties with small crime numbers) thus crime reductions for the state may increase regardless of Baltimore’s contribution.
And I'm guessing that reductions in reported crime are a regression to the mean and not a matter of interventions after a 50 percent increase in homicides and a 36 percent increase in aggravated assaults per the Major City Chiefs Association.
I would also point out that there are dozens of cities (using Major City Chiefs Association data) recording increases in categories of violence.
There's definitely a point to be made for 2019 being the last year for good actionable data. 2020 was an outlier for sociopolitical reasons, and the new methodology for 21-23 (and low compliance rates for agencies and reporting nationwide) has made apples to apples comparison something of a difficulty.
I don't think that means we can't compare 22 and 23 data and get some real crunchy stuff out of it though. As you stated quite well, 2022 had better data than 21, and if anything 23 had even more reporting compliance, so a significant reduction in murder across 22-23 is an absolutely valid data point.
"One of the most common responses I hear from people pushing back on the belief that murder fell…"
I often comment on crime articles by citing data - from multiple sources, gathered by different methods - all of which show that US crime is low (except for gun crime, but that's a somewhat separate issue) and has steadily dropped for decades. The pushback from The Fearful is fascinating.
There is a portion of our citizenry who insist on believing, who seemingly NEED to believe, that crime is rampant and that we're all in Danger (Yikes!). Where does that come from? Is it Faux Nooz and/or the manipulative (R) pols who gin up the Fear of Crime to their political benefit? Is it simply myopic Fear of The Other? Seems like some smart peeps should study that, doncha' think?
Hi Jeff: The data is what the data is. FBI numbers have their issues but it's all we have as to reported crime. There's nothing wrong with making assumptions using big city dashboards as long as people understand it's limitations.
Based on "Unmasking The Discrepancy: The Overlooked Surge in Violent Crime" addressing a 44 percent increase in violent crime per the 2022 National Crime Victimization Survey.........
The Need For A National Survey-The Great Majority Of Crimes Are Not Reported
The National Crime Victimization Survey was promoted 50 years ago as NECESSARY for understanding crime in America because the vast majority of crime is not reported to law enforcement.
The latest 2022 data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics indicates that 42 percent of violent crime is reported and 32 percent of property crimes are reported. So what the FBI (or big city crime dashboards) offer is a small portion of crime in the US.
Approximately 75-80 percent of what we call crime is property-related. If 32 percent of property crimes are reported, then that means that the overwhelming majority of crimes in the US are not brought to the attention of law enforcement.
Only 7 percent of identity thefts were reported to law enforcement per the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Are we to make policy based on the reported 7 percent or the 93 percent that happened and were not reported?
The National Crime Victimization Survey was demanded by those concerned with understanding the totality of crime in America. The national media criticized a system where only a small percentage of crime was analyzed. Criminologists and politicians insisted on accurate counts.
Now, it’s ignored.
Crimes Reported To Law Enforcement Have Big Issues With Reliability and Accuracy
Beyond being a small subset of total crime, there are other issues to consider with reported crimes:
There is a long history of manipulating data (including homicides) downward at the local level for endless reasons. In Washington, D.C., there are disputes over what counts as a homicide.
There is well-documented mistrust among some minority communities and law enforcement leading to a reluctance to report crimes.
The majority of violent crimes involve someone the victim knows (including family members) making crime reporting difficult. Many of these events are seen by the victim as a private matter.
The wait times for police officers to arrive at a crime scene can be considerable, well over an hour is common. We have lost thousands of police officers due to resignation and retirement. If there’s no report because people were tired of waiting for officers to arrive, there’s no crime counted.
Major law enforcement organizations are still having issues transitioning to the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System (although the percentage has greatly improved). Some suggest that it’s having an impact on crime reporting.
There are over 18,000 police agencies in the US. Getting all to define and report crime accurately is a daunting task. For example, there are thousands of law enforcement agencies stating that there were no hate crimes in their jurisdiction for the latest reporting period.
Some states and cities promote “crime-free” housing meaning that occupants could lose their homes if a crime (i.e., domestic violence) is reported.
Note that arrests have plummeted over the last two decades and arrests declined sharply since the beginning of the police use of force protests (2014) and COVID-19 (2020) thus there is evidence that events affect numbers. If there’s no arrest, was the crime counted in official statistics?
Let’s go back to the Bureau Of Justice Statistics report itself and look at the vast increases in groups. There are two categories, overall rates of violence and rates of what the Bureau of Justice Statistics calls “serious violent crime” (excluding simple assaults). Results:
Huge increases in overall rates of violence and serious violence.
There are huge increases in violence and serious violence for crimes against females.
Huge increases in violence and serious violence for crimes for African Americans and Whites.
Rates doubled for serious violent crimes for Hispanics.
Rates doubled for serious violent crimes for those aged 12-17.
Rates doubled for serious violent crimes for those aged 50 and above.
Rates skyrocketed for serious violent crimes for those in the poorest category.
So for me what you are using for data (big city crime dashboards) is appropriate and useful. The homicide data is probably 98 percent accurate and homicides have traditionally been used as an indicator of overall crime.
It's just that people need to comprehend the limitations of that data. For example, Baltimore has very high rates of crime and violence and they seem to be declining for 2023 police reports. But Maryland can be seen as one large city (with some rural counties with small crime numbers) thus crime reductions for the state may increase regardless of Baltimore’s contribution.
And I'm guessing that reductions in reported crime are a regression to the mean and not a matter of interventions after a 50 percent increase in homicides and a 36 percent increase in aggravated assaults per the Major City Chiefs Association.
I would also point out that there are dozens of cities (using Major City Chiefs Association data) recording increases in categories of violence.
Best, Len.
More importantly, why does everyone believe crime has exploded?
There's definitely a point to be made for 2019 being the last year for good actionable data. 2020 was an outlier for sociopolitical reasons, and the new methodology for 21-23 (and low compliance rates for agencies and reporting nationwide) has made apples to apples comparison something of a difficulty.
I don't think that means we can't compare 22 and 23 data and get some real crunchy stuff out of it though. As you stated quite well, 2022 had better data than 21, and if anything 23 had even more reporting compliance, so a significant reduction in murder across 22-23 is an absolutely valid data point.
"One of the most common responses I hear from people pushing back on the belief that murder fell…"
I often comment on crime articles by citing data - from multiple sources, gathered by different methods - all of which show that US crime is low (except for gun crime, but that's a somewhat separate issue) and has steadily dropped for decades. The pushback from The Fearful is fascinating.
There is a portion of our citizenry who insist on believing, who seemingly NEED to believe, that crime is rampant and that we're all in Danger (Yikes!). Where does that come from? Is it Faux Nooz and/or the manipulative (R) pols who gin up the Fear of Crime to their political benefit? Is it simply myopic Fear of The Other? Seems like some smart peeps should study that, doncha' think?