I think Covid and social media and PPP increased crime…and then decreased it because with free PPP cash thugs bought guns and fentanyl…and then killed other thugs. I also think gen x cops took early retirement and so a lot of institutional knowledge was lost right when we needed it the most in several decades. So once the cops started arresting thugs again a lot of thugs were dead from not just gun violence but also fentanyl…and then the thugs that managed to stay alive got busted and sent to prison. Social media played a big role in vehicle thefts and break-ins looking for guns. Maybe an entire generation of thugs got killed/locked up in a short period of time because so many guns and cash and fentanyl flooded the streets??
Curious if you think there is anything going on with immigrant crime reporting. There is plenty of research finding that aggressive immigration enforcement actions impact victim reporting, witnesses, etc. My guess is that the numbers here are not so large but curious if you have any ways of looking at this more rigorously.
Thank you for this insight. I tend to follow the Philly and Boston homicide stats because they are rather well tracked (and I lived in both) and the Philly pattern the past 5 years is startling but also seems to track nationally. https://www.phillypolice.com/crime-data/crime-statistics/
Thanks Jeff: A fair and balanced observation. But per media reports,
1. "MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WIAT) — "Rep. Reed Ingram (R-Pike Road) said crime has gotten out of hand. He said his bill will do more to curb lawlessness in some Alabama cities."
"His bill allows the governor and attorney general to pick an interim police chief to lead departments in high crime cities. That’s if they find an ongoing threat to public safety. Which means the department is operating at a 30% capacity. Rep. Ingram said this bill would work in cities like Birmingham, where recruitment has been a concern."
2. "National Guard to help Albuquerque fight crime, but some wonder if it's necessary. Although overall crime has decreased in the Sun Belt city of more than half a million people, the move is intended as a proactive measure to keep the numbers down, they said."
I could offer more examples of recent media reports indicating that crime remains an issue for many jurisdictions.
The great majority of city crime reports from the Major Cities Chiefs Association indicated increases for at least one crime category.
Firearm-related death Is more acute for Black and Latino men than deployed U.S. soldiers. Fear of crime is at an all-time high per Gallup. Crime was cited in numerous polls as a reason for voter preferences during the presidential election. A new poll from the Houston Chronicle documents national concerns about crime.
Democrats have consistently stated that their failure to embrace the crime issue may have cost them the election.
Preliminary national crime reports (one based on city crime numbers-one by the FBI) have been wrong in the past.
The reality of American concern about crime remains a challenge. As you are aware, the National Crime Victimization Survey tells another story about crime rates.
Putting all of this in its proper perspective (as you have nicely done in your article) is tricky. I have no doubt that you are correct in your analysis. But crime remains a concern for many cities, even those reporting decreases.
I think Covid and social media and PPP increased crime…and then decreased it because with free PPP cash thugs bought guns and fentanyl…and then killed other thugs. I also think gen x cops took early retirement and so a lot of institutional knowledge was lost right when we needed it the most in several decades. So once the cops started arresting thugs again a lot of thugs were dead from not just gun violence but also fentanyl…and then the thugs that managed to stay alive got busted and sent to prison. Social media played a big role in vehicle thefts and break-ins looking for guns. Maybe an entire generation of thugs got killed/locked up in a short period of time because so many guns and cash and fentanyl flooded the streets??
Curious if you think there is anything going on with immigrant crime reporting. There is plenty of research finding that aggressive immigration enforcement actions impact victim reporting, witnesses, etc. My guess is that the numbers here are not so large but curious if you have any ways of looking at this more rigorously.
Has anyone written on why homicide was on the rise in 2019 and 1st quarter of 2020 leading into the pandemic?
It is likely that the drug epidemic was escalating prior to 2020, beginning to spike in late 2019. As I cover in my book (https://nyupress.org/9781479831166/crime-wave/) and recent Substack post (https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/before-and-after-the-2020-homicide?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true), the three trends that have been strongly predictive of homicide are drug overdoses, alcohol consumption, and firearm purchases. These trends were all escalating in the late 2010s and have been falling rapidly since 2021.
Thank you for this insight. I tend to follow the Philly and Boston homicide stats because they are rather well tracked (and I lived in both) and the Philly pattern the past 5 years is startling but also seems to track nationally. https://www.phillypolice.com/crime-data/crime-statistics/
Thanks Jeff: A fair and balanced observation. But per media reports,
1. "MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WIAT) — "Rep. Reed Ingram (R-Pike Road) said crime has gotten out of hand. He said his bill will do more to curb lawlessness in some Alabama cities."
"His bill allows the governor and attorney general to pick an interim police chief to lead departments in high crime cities. That’s if they find an ongoing threat to public safety. Which means the department is operating at a 30% capacity. Rep. Ingram said this bill would work in cities like Birmingham, where recruitment has been a concern."
2. "National Guard to help Albuquerque fight crime, but some wonder if it's necessary. Although overall crime has decreased in the Sun Belt city of more than half a million people, the move is intended as a proactive measure to keep the numbers down, they said."
I could offer more examples of recent media reports indicating that crime remains an issue for many jurisdictions.
The great majority of city crime reports from the Major Cities Chiefs Association indicated increases for at least one crime category.
Firearm-related death Is more acute for Black and Latino men than deployed U.S. soldiers. Fear of crime is at an all-time high per Gallup. Crime was cited in numerous polls as a reason for voter preferences during the presidential election. A new poll from the Houston Chronicle documents national concerns about crime.
Democrats have consistently stated that their failure to embrace the crime issue may have cost them the election.
Preliminary national crime reports (one based on city crime numbers-one by the FBI) have been wrong in the past.
The reality of American concern about crime remains a challenge. As you are aware, the National Crime Victimization Survey tells another story about crime rates.
Putting all of this in its proper perspective (as you have nicely done in your article) is tricky. I have no doubt that you are correct in your analysis. But crime remains a concern for many cities, even those reporting decreases.
Best, Len.