Thanks for these data, Jeff. The problem with the public's perception of crime is that the news media, especially local news, focuses on crime stories whether the rate is high or low. This gives the public the sense that crime is high no matter what the actual rates are!
Unfortunately we also have a public that’s so incurious to the underlying data that they will let their emotions be dictated by biases and nod along as the media tries to sensationalize crime stories. The public needs to do a better job of understanding what the crime rate really is and not allow the media to continue to willfully mislead them.
Given all the issues around retail theft right now (both lying and genuine confusion), I would love a piece on how we could have better understanding of theft. Thanks!
I think some of the psychology of crime from the public perspective mimics how the public feels about inflation. As the post mentions, homicides will likely remain above 2019, and in 2019 homicides had been trending up for about five years.
The same effect occurs with actual prices being well above the pre-inflation norm. By contrast the S & P is up about 35% from its pre pandemic high and double its pre-pandemic low. And the public is still a little mad about the economy.
I think inflation and crime are particularly sensitive to negative news because they do not rebound like the stock market. If homicides go up by a huge amount, it takes a long time (in some cases decades, in the most recent instance it seems to have taken a few years) to get them back under control. My sense is that, intuitively, people understand this difference. Many are willing to wait out a bad stock market but freak out about possible crime increases or jumps in inflation. This causes them to by hyper aware of negative news.
In a real sense this awareness is helpful, because it places pressure on politicians and police to address things like crime and inflation earlier and to pay more attention. This often prevents the big blow ups, like we saw post pandemic/George Floyd (I use both because of the debate about the relative importance of the two events).
What we saw post pandemic/George Floyd was police agencies, politicians, and the public dramatically, and incredibly rapidly switching focus from some combination of concern about crime and social justice, to a very narrow focus on social justice. Justice Reinvestment, which had been progressing at a more orderly pace, was thrown into overdrive and its worst ideas happened to be the most popular and dramatic, as opposed to the more thoughtful but less dramatic options such as specialized courts for mental health and drugs.
So led to a bunch of poorly conceived ideas (see Washington States use of force and policing mental health laws or Oregon's Drug decriminalization laws), implement quickly. These ideas, even if they were sound at some foundational or theoretical level, were generally poorly written and implemented in a slipshod manner. Create a bunch of poor policy nationally, paralyze policing with indecision as the profession tries to adjust to a rapid change in expectations and policy (concurrent with massive retirements and people leaving the profession), and you get a few very bad years as people adjust.
My guess is that we are on the downhill side. Hopefully we can sift through the policy changes in a thoughtful manner, keeping as many of the well-thought-out and implemented ideas as possible, while trying to figure out which of the poorly implemented ideas were just plain stupid (and many of them were) and which were just poorly implemented (and many of them were).
What we are seeing now is the result of people refocusing, cleaning up the worst policies, and police agencies adjusting to the new expectations.
So my personal theory is that this "illogical" perception of crime, while often problematic and leading to bad policy decisions for other reasons, has some upside. Again, just a theory but there is a fair amount of research on how people react to inflation, and I think the similarities are at least worth discussing (even if incorrect).
There is an anarcho tyranny aspect to it all as well.
Let’s say you ride the subway. Each day you see people hoping the turnstiles. There are homeless people and the smell of urine. Some mentally ill person screams on the train.
No crime has occurred, but there is a sense that the scene is chaotic and dangerous and out of control. That person screaming could commit a crime, and would anyone stop it? If they did stop it, what would happen to them? Would they get in trouble?
People can “solve” this problem by disengaging from society. And it will be a reduction in crime if people avoid victimhood by avoiding contact, but it doesn’t feel that way. It feels like being pushed out and retreating.
I don’t understand why you chose to show the first two charts that you do (about murder rate) if your argument is that crime is so overblown.
It looks like for the last 4 years, crime is out of control. But part of 2023 wasn’t as bad. Obviously, people aren’t going to “feel” safe: first of all, it’s still way less safe than it was 5 years ago; second, imagine you lived with an abusive partner who hit you all the time, and then after 4 years of living together, he stopped hitting you quite as often. Wouldn’t you still feel in danger in his presence, or would you say to yourself, “he’s not currently punching me in the face and yet I still feel unsafe, what’s wrong with me?”
Good news and I added it to my overview in Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S. Thanks Jeff.
There needs to be some analysis of survey data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (violence up 44 percent in 2022) and Gallup where you could make a case that most Americans are victimized by crime on a yearly based on household data.
Then there needs to be an examination of the variables involved in crime reported to law enforcement (regression, lack of reporting, cops not taking reports for a variety of reasons). If 7 percent of identity theft crimes are reported to law enforcement (BJS), do we judge that issue based on 7 percent? If 42 percent of violent crimes are reported (32 percent for property crimes), do we judge crime based on that figure?
There really needs to be consensus on how we view crime numbers/rates and its impact on everyday Americans. Until that happens, we are stuck with data that wildly contradicts and negates just about any point of view.
Question, will Baltimore improve the quality of life for its citizens based on reductions in reported crime? I'm not sure that's how it works.
Regardless, reductions in crime reported to law enforcement is wonderful news. I hope it continues. Thanks for sharing.
12/9/2023 at 3am I was a gunshot victim in an armed home invasion. 3 suspects kicked down the front door, and I was shot in the eye as I ran to save my pet. One suspect held me at gunpoint in a small room, while the two other robbers ransacked my home for valuables for almost an hour. I called the police after the suspects fled the crime scene, my eye bleeding and blackened from the gunshot. Local news reports of a recent home invasion crime spree in north King County WA appear strikingly similar to what happened to me in December. The robbers committed several class A felonies: attempted murder, kidnapping, aggravated assault, discharge of a firearm, robbery, forced entry. Your data does not include the most recent crime increase from late 2023 to early 2024. Likewise, because people are seeing that the suspects are likely not going to be caught or jailed, people may have given up on reporting smaller crimes to the police. Please don’t tell the public there is less crime; I am living proof that the escalation in violent crime has long lasting impacts on crime victims. Your data is out of date, from well over a year ago. People know they there is more crime because they have to deal with it every single day.
You lie with statistics, Jeff Asher. You say that "Detroit is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1966." At the 1960 census, Detroit's population was 1,670,000. By 2020, the population had declined to 639,000. Now you talk about the "fewest" murders since 1966 despite a massive decline in overall numbers. How are we supposed to trust anything else you say?
Detroit News: "The homicide rate per 100,000 people in 1966 was 12.8 based on the 1960 population, whereas 214 killings with the current population would result in a rate of 33.4." Your "fewest murders" is a murder rate almost 3x that of 1966.
Disgraceful. Why do you tell these lies? Is it considered acceptable at the Atlantic?
Can you speak a little to the possible discrepancies that might emerge from UCR vs NIBRS reporting? Has anyone accounted % of missing data from UCR that is now reported to NIBRS or vice versa?
First of all, thank you for your work. I followed a link from an NYTimes article.
In a prior day, this would have been the work of journalists. Today, it's a link, while journalists spend time writing about whatever some politician claimed.
Surely you understand that the crime statistic reports are whatever the reporting agency wants them to say.
If the FBI is being pressured to lower crime numbers by the President, their reports will report lower crime even if there are slowly decaying bodies in the Oval Office and crime is soaring everywhere.
Same with local city cops. The mayor is running for reelection, tells the Chief crime has to be seen as dropping, and suddenly bodies found in trunks with their hands tied behind them and a bullet hole in their forehead are being classified as 'suicides'.
Let's keep in mind that Governor DeSantis decreed at the height of the Covid pandemic that at least half the deaths were to list "Pneumonia" as the cause on the death certificate under penalty of the ME being fired, and Florida's Covid death statistics suddenly dropped like a stone. And then he bragged about them.
If you want to know if crime is really up, ask the store owners, the list of burglary and robbery victims that grows by the day, the victims of home invasions, carjackings, muggings, the civilians who refuse to dine out for fear of being robbed and killed. These are people reacting to the reality on the ground, not the bullshit the politicians and law enforcement liars spew to the press.
America's larger cities and rural towns are festering shitholes of increasing violence and crime and drug use no matter how much you wish it were otherwise.
Except no stats from Chicago and Los Angeles??? These important factors make this a misleading article looking for attention rather than accurate reporting. Another misleading media manipulating stats for publicity.
What a terrifically clear and detailed explanation, thank you. It should be required reading for gun haters, who insist that rising and falling rates of murder are due only to Da Gunz. Like you, I agree that gun violence is still unacceptably high. BUT, "the only thing that reduces murders is to pass more gun laws!" is so simplistic a kindergartner would reject it.
Also, the gap between actual crime diving and perception crime rising is surely due to the news notion of "If it bleeds, it leads." Turn on any local TV station, the first ten minutes are filled with mayhem and murder from around the world. Break for commercial, back to crime, crime, crime. Much of our popular televised entertainment has murder and mayhem plots. It's no wonder we feel like we're being iinvaded by Crime!
But when I go outside and away from the TV and social media, a normal, lovely, everyday America awaits.
It would be interesting to see the numbers if Chicago & LA were included. Though Detroit’s numbers are encouraging, the absence of those two high-crime population centers calls for a slightly less sanguine viewpoint.
It would also be interesting to see how the declines correlate with the multiple states that passed permitless concealed-carry laws recently. While NYT and Atlantic readers might reject the hypothesis out of hand, it’s possible that law-abiding citizens arming themselves has helped deter criminal activity.
The stats do not consider the inner city, nor crime stats in Jewish or Asian communities. Your feel good stats are found in the ny times and nyc.gov. Nyc.gov does not consider smash and grab and fare hopping to be a crime anymore. And the stats posted do not consider stats showing crime rates have doubled in the worst parts of places like ny. And chicago. The always forgotten inner city. Here are some recent NYC (Nov 2023) stats:
“The jump in grand larceny auto over the past month was particularly notable in the 42nd Precinct — which covers Claremont, Crotona Park East and Crotona Park — which was up 60% for the 28-day period ending Nov. 5, compared to last year. It was also up 38% in the 47th Precinct — which covers Woodlawn, Wakefield, Baychester and surrounding areas.
Meanwhile, the trouble spots for felony assaults over the past month were found in the 52nd Precinct — which includes Bedford Park, Fordham, Kingsbridge and surrounding neighborhoods — where such crimes were up 73% for the 28-day period ending Nov. 5, compared to the same period last year. They were also up 45.7% over that period in the 48th Precinct, which covers Arthur Avenue, the Cross Bronx Expressway and surrounding neighborhoods.” — https://www.bxtimes.com/police-beat-i-crime-is-up-in-the-bronx-with-stolen-vehicles-and-felony-assaults-on-the-rise/
I find the law and order neglect, for decades, in parts of Harlem, Brooklyn, east New York, and the Bronx by our mayors and politicians to be the biggest crime. Have you ever spent time in the Bronx for any extended period of time?
Did you know: “In 1940, there were approximately 260 registered tax-exempt synagogues and at least twice as many unregistered synagogues in the South Bronx. (30) And more than 360,000 Jews lived in the South Bronx.(10) By 2007 there was one active community synagogue and, the author estimates, fewer than 2,500 Jews in the South Bronx. -bronxsynagogues.org
My info is from a wide variety of sources - not just ny times. It is how I discern truth.
Thanks for these data, Jeff. The problem with the public's perception of crime is that the news media, especially local news, focuses on crime stories whether the rate is high or low. This gives the public the sense that crime is high no matter what the actual rates are!
Unfortunately we also have a public that’s so incurious to the underlying data that they will let their emotions be dictated by biases and nod along as the media tries to sensationalize crime stories. The public needs to do a better job of understanding what the crime rate really is and not allow the media to continue to willfully mislead them.
because it is high especially in big cities , altough the crime rates in 2023 did decline they are not anywhere near where they were in 2017-2020
Thanks for this.
Given all the issues around retail theft right now (both lying and genuine confusion), I would love a piece on how we could have better understanding of theft. Thanks!
https://www.vox.com/politics/24025691/shoplifting-scare-criminal-justice-reform. It is easier for executives to blame the big ooga booga for shrink rather than the causes of poor inventory and supply chain management and self checkout
I think some of the psychology of crime from the public perspective mimics how the public feels about inflation. As the post mentions, homicides will likely remain above 2019, and in 2019 homicides had been trending up for about five years.
The same effect occurs with actual prices being well above the pre-inflation norm. By contrast the S & P is up about 35% from its pre pandemic high and double its pre-pandemic low. And the public is still a little mad about the economy.
I think inflation and crime are particularly sensitive to negative news because they do not rebound like the stock market. If homicides go up by a huge amount, it takes a long time (in some cases decades, in the most recent instance it seems to have taken a few years) to get them back under control. My sense is that, intuitively, people understand this difference. Many are willing to wait out a bad stock market but freak out about possible crime increases or jumps in inflation. This causes them to by hyper aware of negative news.
In a real sense this awareness is helpful, because it places pressure on politicians and police to address things like crime and inflation earlier and to pay more attention. This often prevents the big blow ups, like we saw post pandemic/George Floyd (I use both because of the debate about the relative importance of the two events).
What we saw post pandemic/George Floyd was police agencies, politicians, and the public dramatically, and incredibly rapidly switching focus from some combination of concern about crime and social justice, to a very narrow focus on social justice. Justice Reinvestment, which had been progressing at a more orderly pace, was thrown into overdrive and its worst ideas happened to be the most popular and dramatic, as opposed to the more thoughtful but less dramatic options such as specialized courts for mental health and drugs.
So led to a bunch of poorly conceived ideas (see Washington States use of force and policing mental health laws or Oregon's Drug decriminalization laws), implement quickly. These ideas, even if they were sound at some foundational or theoretical level, were generally poorly written and implemented in a slipshod manner. Create a bunch of poor policy nationally, paralyze policing with indecision as the profession tries to adjust to a rapid change in expectations and policy (concurrent with massive retirements and people leaving the profession), and you get a few very bad years as people adjust.
My guess is that we are on the downhill side. Hopefully we can sift through the policy changes in a thoughtful manner, keeping as many of the well-thought-out and implemented ideas as possible, while trying to figure out which of the poorly implemented ideas were just plain stupid (and many of them were) and which were just poorly implemented (and many of them were).
What we are seeing now is the result of people refocusing, cleaning up the worst policies, and police agencies adjusting to the new expectations.
So my personal theory is that this "illogical" perception of crime, while often problematic and leading to bad policy decisions for other reasons, has some upside. Again, just a theory but there is a fair amount of research on how people react to inflation, and I think the similarities are at least worth discussing (even if incorrect).
There is an anarcho tyranny aspect to it all as well.
Let’s say you ride the subway. Each day you see people hoping the turnstiles. There are homeless people and the smell of urine. Some mentally ill person screams on the train.
No crime has occurred, but there is a sense that the scene is chaotic and dangerous and out of control. That person screaming could commit a crime, and would anyone stop it? If they did stop it, what would happen to them? Would they get in trouble?
People can “solve” this problem by disengaging from society. And it will be a reduction in crime if people avoid victimhood by avoiding contact, but it doesn’t feel that way. It feels like being pushed out and retreating.
Your 2023 uniform crime report link is for 2019. Do you have a source for the 2023 data?
I don’t understand why you chose to show the first two charts that you do (about murder rate) if your argument is that crime is so overblown.
It looks like for the last 4 years, crime is out of control. But part of 2023 wasn’t as bad. Obviously, people aren’t going to “feel” safe: first of all, it’s still way less safe than it was 5 years ago; second, imagine you lived with an abusive partner who hit you all the time, and then after 4 years of living together, he stopped hitting you quite as often. Wouldn’t you still feel in danger in his presence, or would you say to yourself, “he’s not currently punching me in the face and yet I still feel unsafe, what’s wrong with me?”
Yes, Ross - data analysis does get very complicated.
Good news and I added it to my overview in Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S. Thanks Jeff.
There needs to be some analysis of survey data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (violence up 44 percent in 2022) and Gallup where you could make a case that most Americans are victimized by crime on a yearly based on household data.
Then there needs to be an examination of the variables involved in crime reported to law enforcement (regression, lack of reporting, cops not taking reports for a variety of reasons). If 7 percent of identity theft crimes are reported to law enforcement (BJS), do we judge that issue based on 7 percent? If 42 percent of violent crimes are reported (32 percent for property crimes), do we judge crime based on that figure?
There really needs to be consensus on how we view crime numbers/rates and its impact on everyday Americans. Until that happens, we are stuck with data that wildly contradicts and negates just about any point of view.
Question, will Baltimore improve the quality of life for its citizens based on reductions in reported crime? I'm not sure that's how it works.
Regardless, reductions in crime reported to law enforcement is wonderful news. I hope it continues. Thanks for sharing.
12/9/2023 at 3am I was a gunshot victim in an armed home invasion. 3 suspects kicked down the front door, and I was shot in the eye as I ran to save my pet. One suspect held me at gunpoint in a small room, while the two other robbers ransacked my home for valuables for almost an hour. I called the police after the suspects fled the crime scene, my eye bleeding and blackened from the gunshot. Local news reports of a recent home invasion crime spree in north King County WA appear strikingly similar to what happened to me in December. The robbers committed several class A felonies: attempted murder, kidnapping, aggravated assault, discharge of a firearm, robbery, forced entry. Your data does not include the most recent crime increase from late 2023 to early 2024. Likewise, because people are seeing that the suspects are likely not going to be caught or jailed, people may have given up on reporting smaller crimes to the police. Please don’t tell the public there is less crime; I am living proof that the escalation in violent crime has long lasting impacts on crime victims. Your data is out of date, from well over a year ago. People know they there is more crime because they have to deal with it every single day.
Where I live in DC, crime was a disaster in 2023 and the policies enacted by the city council and District Attorney have compounded the problem.
You lie with statistics, Jeff Asher. You say that "Detroit is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1966." At the 1960 census, Detroit's population was 1,670,000. By 2020, the population had declined to 639,000. Now you talk about the "fewest" murders since 1966 despite a massive decline in overall numbers. How are we supposed to trust anything else you say?
Detroit News: "The homicide rate per 100,000 people in 1966 was 12.8 based on the 1960 population, whereas 214 killings with the current population would result in a rate of 33.4." Your "fewest murders" is a murder rate almost 3x that of 1966.
Disgraceful. Why do you tell these lies? Is it considered acceptable at the Atlantic?
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/detroit-city/2023/12/04/detroit-on-pace-for-fewest-homicides-since-1966-officials-credit-this-program/71801454007/
Can you speak a little to the possible discrepancies that might emerge from UCR vs NIBRS reporting? Has anyone accounted % of missing data from UCR that is now reported to NIBRS or vice versa?
First of all, thank you for your work. I followed a link from an NYTimes article.
In a prior day, this would have been the work of journalists. Today, it's a link, while journalists spend time writing about whatever some politician claimed.
Come on, Jeff....don't be so naive.
Surely you understand that the crime statistic reports are whatever the reporting agency wants them to say.
If the FBI is being pressured to lower crime numbers by the President, their reports will report lower crime even if there are slowly decaying bodies in the Oval Office and crime is soaring everywhere.
Same with local city cops. The mayor is running for reelection, tells the Chief crime has to be seen as dropping, and suddenly bodies found in trunks with their hands tied behind them and a bullet hole in their forehead are being classified as 'suicides'.
Let's keep in mind that Governor DeSantis decreed at the height of the Covid pandemic that at least half the deaths were to list "Pneumonia" as the cause on the death certificate under penalty of the ME being fired, and Florida's Covid death statistics suddenly dropped like a stone. And then he bragged about them.
If you want to know if crime is really up, ask the store owners, the list of burglary and robbery victims that grows by the day, the victims of home invasions, carjackings, muggings, the civilians who refuse to dine out for fear of being robbed and killed. These are people reacting to the reality on the ground, not the bullshit the politicians and law enforcement liars spew to the press.
America's larger cities and rural towns are festering shitholes of increasing violence and crime and drug use no matter how much you wish it were otherwise.
Except no stats from Chicago and Los Angeles??? These important factors make this a misleading article looking for attention rather than accurate reporting. Another misleading media manipulating stats for publicity.
What a terrifically clear and detailed explanation, thank you. It should be required reading for gun haters, who insist that rising and falling rates of murder are due only to Da Gunz. Like you, I agree that gun violence is still unacceptably high. BUT, "the only thing that reduces murders is to pass more gun laws!" is so simplistic a kindergartner would reject it.
Also, the gap between actual crime diving and perception crime rising is surely due to the news notion of "If it bleeds, it leads." Turn on any local TV station, the first ten minutes are filled with mayhem and murder from around the world. Break for commercial, back to crime, crime, crime. Much of our popular televised entertainment has murder and mayhem plots. It's no wonder we feel like we're being iinvaded by Crime!
But when I go outside and away from the TV and social media, a normal, lovely, everyday America awaits.
It would be interesting to see the numbers if Chicago & LA were included. Though Detroit’s numbers are encouraging, the absence of those two high-crime population centers calls for a slightly less sanguine viewpoint.
It would also be interesting to see how the declines correlate with the multiple states that passed permitless concealed-carry laws recently. While NYT and Atlantic readers might reject the hypothesis out of hand, it’s possible that law-abiding citizens arming themselves has helped deter criminal activity.
The stats do not consider the inner city, nor crime stats in Jewish or Asian communities. Your feel good stats are found in the ny times and nyc.gov. Nyc.gov does not consider smash and grab and fare hopping to be a crime anymore. And the stats posted do not consider stats showing crime rates have doubled in the worst parts of places like ny. And chicago. The always forgotten inner city. Here are some recent NYC (Nov 2023) stats:
“The jump in grand larceny auto over the past month was particularly notable in the 42nd Precinct — which covers Claremont, Crotona Park East and Crotona Park — which was up 60% for the 28-day period ending Nov. 5, compared to last year. It was also up 38% in the 47th Precinct — which covers Woodlawn, Wakefield, Baychester and surrounding areas.
Meanwhile, the trouble spots for felony assaults over the past month were found in the 52nd Precinct — which includes Bedford Park, Fordham, Kingsbridge and surrounding neighborhoods — where such crimes were up 73% for the 28-day period ending Nov. 5, compared to the same period last year. They were also up 45.7% over that period in the 48th Precinct, which covers Arthur Avenue, the Cross Bronx Expressway and surrounding neighborhoods.” — https://www.bxtimes.com/police-beat-i-crime-is-up-in-the-bronx-with-stolen-vehicles-and-felony-assaults-on-the-rise/
I find the law and order neglect, for decades, in parts of Harlem, Brooklyn, east New York, and the Bronx by our mayors and politicians to be the biggest crime. Have you ever spent time in the Bronx for any extended period of time?
I’ve witnessed it at Walgreens in nyc. Crime is way up in immigrant hotel occupation. I watched deblasio and sharpton paint “Defund the Police” on 5th Avenue. 1 billion taken from the nyc police budget and 650 detectives were fired; https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-protests-for-racial-justice/2020/07/01/886000386/de-blasio-on-shifting-1-billion-from-nypd-we-think-it-s-the-right-thing-to-do. And city government (nyc.org) did this in the name of racial injustice no less. Sure this was 18 months ago - but the effect has rippled through to poorest communities.
Here’s are some nyc stats about which most New York politicians ignore:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/police-data-shows-antisemitic-incidents-in-nyc-more-than-doubled-over-last-2-years/
Did you know: “In 1940, there were approximately 260 registered tax-exempt synagogues and at least twice as many unregistered synagogues in the South Bronx. (30) And more than 360,000 Jews lived in the South Bronx.(10) By 2007 there was one active community synagogue and, the author estimates, fewer than 2,500 Jews in the South Bronx. -bronxsynagogues.org
My info is from a wide variety of sources - not just ny times. It is how I discern truth.
Thanks and happy new year.