Hi Jeff: There's no doubt that "reported" crime is falling. It's good news. Your assessment is a valuable service. Thank you.
But as you know, only a small percentage of crime is reported to law enforcement per BJS. If approximately 80 percent of the crime data we collect is property crimes, and if BJS is correct that only 30 percent are reported, that leaves a huge gap in our understanding of crime.
Then there are individual reports on property crime: USA Today: Scammers and cybercriminals stole a record total of $16.6 billion from Americans in 2024, marking a 33% increase in losses from 2023, the FBI said in a new report on April 23. Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, only 7 percent are reported.
The Hill (the newspaper of Congress) addressed cargo theft. The average value of each cargo theft is more than $200,000, and according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau, there has been a 1,500 percent increase in cargo theft incidents since 2021. Total cargo theft losses increased by 27 percent in 2024 and are projected to rise another 22 percent in 2025.
Retail shrink (shoplifting-organized attacks) hit $94.5 billion in 2021, a 53% jump from 2019, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey, CNN. According to the National Retail Federation, $112.1 billion in losses were attributed to shrinkage, mostly theft and organized retail crime (ORC)—in 2022, a 19% increase over the year before.
There are 120 million porch package thefts in the US. The survey indicated that there are far more porch pirate thefts than total reported property crimes to the FBI. The financial toll of these thefts is $16 billion.
A growing number of firearms are being stolen from parked cars, especially in urban areas, according to a new report that highlights a frequently overlooked source of illegally circulating guns. The number of guns reported stolen from vehicles increased by 31% over five years. In large urban areas, the overall gun theft rate jumped by 42% between 2018 and 2022.
Then we have issues as to what states and locals are reporting: States and cities continue to struggle with their crime counts. “California says crime is down. But officials know the data is flawed,” is an article in the San Francisco Chronicle.“ It happened again. The California Department of Justice this week published a major report, and a corresponding press release, touting a drop in violent crime across the state. But the data underlying the report is substantially flawed — thanks to a big mistake that the DOJ was made aware of last year after Chronicle reporting, but did not fix.”
We have cities like Baltimore proclaiming that they are no longer in the top 25 American cities for crime. Baltimore is no longer among the most dangerous places in the United States, according to U.S. News & World Report. Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott noted Baltimore’s lack of inclusion on the list during his State of the City Address.
But according to the UK's Daily Mail, using the Numbeo Index, it’s the 18th most dangerous city in the world out of 385 cities measured.
Again, it’s an indication of how difficult it is to accurately count crime and the perceptions of crime. Counting crime is the wild west of sociology. It’s possible to suggest that Baltimore is a cherished place to live and, concurrently, a place to be avoided.
Contextually, we have American cities that are more dangerous than cities in South Africa or Venezuela, or Central America, so Memphis or Detroit, or Baltimore can “celebrate” reported crime reductions, yet they may be more dangerous than world cities known for significant crime problems based on the dubious Numbeo Index.
But as uncertain as the Numbeo Index is as to a quality crime assessment, is it any worse than using crimes reported to law enforcement when the great majority are not? Should BJS geo-locate their crime data through the National Crime Victimization Survey? Yes, they have that capacity.
Then we have the analysis from Politico about the economy, stating that Biden was frustrated with Americans not acknowledging that the economy had improved. But Politico stated that BLS was using the wrong filters and Americans were correct in their assessment of economic conditions. Is there a paralel here as to Gallup's finding that fear or concern about crime is at record levels? Should we be using the National Crime Victimization Survey (and the record increase in rates of violence) rather than "reported" crime? Can we use both reported and survey measures?
Again, "reported" crime is down. Even if I or others feel that it's an inadequate method of collecting crime data, there's comfort that it's been collected somewhat uniformly over decades (except for the introduction of the NIBRS). What you are others are doing is valuable. Thank you.
But, in my opinion, we owe the public a fuller explanation of crime data and what it means for policy. We have every chief of police and people advocating for violence interrupters taking credit for the crime drop. Based on approved research methods, we have very iffy evidence that programs work nearly as well as some suggest. Crime could be returning (regressing) to previous levels as it has done endless times before, regardless of interventions.
I stated that counting crime is the wild west of sociology. People taking credit for the "reported" crime drops is sorta the same. There was a chief of police who stated that violence decreased because he sent squad cars into hot spots and had them turn on their lights.
I sometimes feel that we, collectively, are only delivering partial truths to the public when it comes to crime.
If anyone is interested in the underlying causes of the crime decline: https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/explaining-the-crime-decline?r=4v7etj&utm_medium=ios
Great explanation. Thank you.
Jeff-any indication as to why these numbers are falling? Thanks
Hi Jeff: There's no doubt that "reported" crime is falling. It's good news. Your assessment is a valuable service. Thank you.
But as you know, only a small percentage of crime is reported to law enforcement per BJS. If approximately 80 percent of the crime data we collect is property crimes, and if BJS is correct that only 30 percent are reported, that leaves a huge gap in our understanding of crime.
Then there are individual reports on property crime: USA Today: Scammers and cybercriminals stole a record total of $16.6 billion from Americans in 2024, marking a 33% increase in losses from 2023, the FBI said in a new report on April 23. Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, only 7 percent are reported.
The Hill (the newspaper of Congress) addressed cargo theft. The average value of each cargo theft is more than $200,000, and according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau, there has been a 1,500 percent increase in cargo theft incidents since 2021. Total cargo theft losses increased by 27 percent in 2024 and are projected to rise another 22 percent in 2025.
Retail shrink (shoplifting-organized attacks) hit $94.5 billion in 2021, a 53% jump from 2019, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey, CNN. According to the National Retail Federation, $112.1 billion in losses were attributed to shrinkage, mostly theft and organized retail crime (ORC)—in 2022, a 19% increase over the year before.
There are 120 million porch package thefts in the US. The survey indicated that there are far more porch pirate thefts than total reported property crimes to the FBI. The financial toll of these thefts is $16 billion.
A growing number of firearms are being stolen from parked cars, especially in urban areas, according to a new report that highlights a frequently overlooked source of illegally circulating guns. The number of guns reported stolen from vehicles increased by 31% over five years. In large urban areas, the overall gun theft rate jumped by 42% between 2018 and 2022.
Then we have issues as to what states and locals are reporting: States and cities continue to struggle with their crime counts. “California says crime is down. But officials know the data is flawed,” is an article in the San Francisco Chronicle.“ It happened again. The California Department of Justice this week published a major report, and a corresponding press release, touting a drop in violent crime across the state. But the data underlying the report is substantially flawed — thanks to a big mistake that the DOJ was made aware of last year after Chronicle reporting, but did not fix.”
Then we have Numbeo Index ranking world cities as to crime, and I went out of my way to cite the methodological problems of the Numbeo Index in https://www.crimeinamerica.net/21-us-cities-rank-among-the-worlds-most-dangerous/. There are 21 American cities in the top 100 most dangerous places in the world.
We have cities like Baltimore proclaiming that they are no longer in the top 25 American cities for crime. Baltimore is no longer among the most dangerous places in the United States, according to U.S. News & World Report. Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott noted Baltimore’s lack of inclusion on the list during his State of the City Address.
But according to the UK's Daily Mail, using the Numbeo Index, it’s the 18th most dangerous city in the world out of 385 cities measured.
Again, it’s an indication of how difficult it is to accurately count crime and the perceptions of crime. Counting crime is the wild west of sociology. It’s possible to suggest that Baltimore is a cherished place to live and, concurrently, a place to be avoided.
Contextually, we have American cities that are more dangerous than cities in South Africa or Venezuela, or Central America, so Memphis or Detroit, or Baltimore can “celebrate” reported crime reductions, yet they may be more dangerous than world cities known for significant crime problems based on the dubious Numbeo Index.
But as uncertain as the Numbeo Index is as to a quality crime assessment, is it any worse than using crimes reported to law enforcement when the great majority are not? Should BJS geo-locate their crime data through the National Crime Victimization Survey? Yes, they have that capacity.
Then we have the analysis from Politico about the economy, stating that Biden was frustrated with Americans not acknowledging that the economy had improved. But Politico stated that BLS was using the wrong filters and Americans were correct in their assessment of economic conditions. Is there a paralel here as to Gallup's finding that fear or concern about crime is at record levels? Should we be using the National Crime Victimization Survey (and the record increase in rates of violence) rather than "reported" crime? Can we use both reported and survey measures?
Again, "reported" crime is down. Even if I or others feel that it's an inadequate method of collecting crime data, there's comfort that it's been collected somewhat uniformly over decades (except for the introduction of the NIBRS). What you are others are doing is valuable. Thank you.
But, in my opinion, we owe the public a fuller explanation of crime data and what it means for policy. We have every chief of police and people advocating for violence interrupters taking credit for the crime drop. Based on approved research methods, we have very iffy evidence that programs work nearly as well as some suggest. Crime could be returning (regressing) to previous levels as it has done endless times before, regardless of interventions.
I stated that counting crime is the wild west of sociology. People taking credit for the "reported" crime drops is sorta the same. There was a chief of police who stated that violence decreased because he sent squad cars into hot spots and had them turn on their lights.
I sometimes feel that we, collectively, are only delivering partial truths to the public when it comes to crime.
Best, Len.
Why start in the 60s? Go back a bit.
why not include the stats of real crimes perpetrated on innocent victims by the government