Thanks as always for your great work! I wonder if the estimate on population increase may be too large? Revised estimates released earlier this month by the CBO on population growth for 2025 estimate only a 0.2% increase. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61390
Very possible! Even a 0.2% population increase and 15% decline with a +700 revision to 2024's number would set a new record low though, at least initially.
After reading your posts last month I started looking into other countries to see if they were experiencing similar drops and saw that out of 12 countries that had recent data, 10 had decreases larger than 5%, and only Ecuador had an increase (although a big increase).
Also London is currently at 61 homicides, a 20% decrease since YTD 2024.
This led me to look into Spain, where I live, as the only country besides the U.S. where I am pretty well-informed. Crime overall is very low here, though you wouldn't know it from the way people talk on social media. I found this analysis (you need to know Spanish) hilarious, as he analyzes the data and shows that crime is down this year from already very low statistics, but comments sarcastically "this can't be, if on social media, we are in a state of war," "we're worse than Afghanistan," "murders are like in the U.S. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiLLKdoxIRI
Luckily it was automatically dubbed for me so I could understand most of it. I would say that crime has more variation, in the UK there has been more shoplifting and robbery from person in the last few years even as homicides/other violent crimes have decreased. So there can be a sense that very visible crimes are getting worse (especially if something that happens 100k time goes up 10% whereas people rarely encounter murder so it makes no visible difference if it's down 20%.)
I agree with you that if very visible crimes are getting worse (e.g. I previously lived for many years in NYC, and a couple very visible random murders on/near public transit caused shock for many). However, what I witness in Spain is similar to that of Fox News in the U.S. with right-wing media/influencers distorting anecdotal stories for attempted political gain.
Very interesting! I wonder if results might be muddied by delays in reporting? These countries all likely revise past data just like the USA does, and if revisions systematically skew higher then that could explain the overall trend. But that's just speculation.
Other pure speculations: #1) Best practice crime prevention strategies are spreading worldwide. #2) Drops in testosterone due to pollutants? #3) Lower birth rates and aging populations means the proportion of people in "prime crime years" is steadily dropping, while parental investments are increasing.
In the post I looked at quite a few countries and the data is pretty bad generally so could be revised, the only one I have a lot of confidence in is UK/London data.
My speculations were a combination of declining number of young people and smartphones providing enough distraction/other tech making it harder to get away with things. (And maybe smartphones are also contributing to declining fertility rates).
I was taught in college decades ago that Western industrialized nations had similar rates of crime trends over time. There’s even a name for it—criminologists often call it the international crime drop. Research has shown that many developed nations experienced synchronized declines in crime starting in the 1990s, suggesting shared structural causes rather than just national policy effects.
Question: since you're measuring the murder RATE, i.e., murders per 100,000 people, why does an increase in absolute population figure into your calculations at all?
Thanks as always for your great work! I wonder if the estimate on population increase may be too large? Revised estimates released earlier this month by the CBO on population growth for 2025 estimate only a 0.2% increase. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61390
Very possible! Even a 0.2% population increase and 15% decline with a +700 revision to 2024's number would set a new record low though, at least initially.
Thanks for your reply!
After reading your posts last month I started looking into other countries to see if they were experiencing similar drops and saw that out of 12 countries that had recent data, 10 had decreases larger than 5%, and only Ecuador had an increase (although a big increase).
Also London is currently at 61 homicides, a 20% decrease since YTD 2024.
https://gdea.substack.com/p/global-homicide-2025-so-far
Country----------2024 Rate(per 100k) --2025 Rate so far--(Rate of Change)
Jamaica------------40.1--------------------23.3--------------(−42%)
Canada-------------1.9---------------------1.4---------------(−23%)
United States-------5.0--------------------4.0----------------(−20%)
Honduras----------25.3--------------------20.5--------------(−19%)
The Philippines-----4.3--------------------3.5----------------(−19%)
Mexico--------------19.3------------------16.2---------------(−16%)
South Africa--------43.5-------------------38.1---------------(−12%)
Spain----------------0.61-------------------0.54--------------(−12%)
Bangladesh---------2.4--------------------2.2----------------(−8%)
England and Wales-0.94------------------0.88---------------(−6%)
Costa Rica----------16.6-------------------16----------------(−4%)
Ecuador-------------38.8-------------------57----------------(+47%)
This led me to look into Spain, where I live, as the only country besides the U.S. where I am pretty well-informed. Crime overall is very low here, though you wouldn't know it from the way people talk on social media. I found this analysis (you need to know Spanish) hilarious, as he analyzes the data and shows that crime is down this year from already very low statistics, but comments sarcastically "this can't be, if on social media, we are in a state of war," "we're worse than Afghanistan," "murders are like in the U.S. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiLLKdoxIRI
Luckily it was automatically dubbed for me so I could understand most of it. I would say that crime has more variation, in the UK there has been more shoplifting and robbery from person in the last few years even as homicides/other violent crimes have decreased. So there can be a sense that very visible crimes are getting worse (especially if something that happens 100k time goes up 10% whereas people rarely encounter murder so it makes no visible difference if it's down 20%.)
I agree with you that if very visible crimes are getting worse (e.g. I previously lived for many years in NYC, and a couple very visible random murders on/near public transit caused shock for many). However, what I witness in Spain is similar to that of Fox News in the U.S. with right-wing media/influencers distorting anecdotal stories for attempted political gain.
Very interesting! I wonder if results might be muddied by delays in reporting? These countries all likely revise past data just like the USA does, and if revisions systematically skew higher then that could explain the overall trend. But that's just speculation.
Other pure speculations: #1) Best practice crime prevention strategies are spreading worldwide. #2) Drops in testosterone due to pollutants? #3) Lower birth rates and aging populations means the proportion of people in "prime crime years" is steadily dropping, while parental investments are increasing.
In the post I looked at quite a few countries and the data is pretty bad generally so could be revised, the only one I have a lot of confidence in is UK/London data.
My speculations were a combination of declining number of young people and smartphones providing enough distraction/other tech making it harder to get away with things. (And maybe smartphones are also contributing to declining fertility rates).
I was taught in college decades ago that Western industrialized nations had similar rates of crime trends over time. There’s even a name for it—criminologists often call it the international crime drop. Research has shown that many developed nations experienced synchronized declines in crime starting in the 1990s, suggesting shared structural causes rather than just national policy effects.
Question: since you're measuring the murder RATE, i.e., murders per 100,000 people, why does an increase in absolute population figure into your calculations at all?