In a bit of a surprise, the FBI released its annual report this Friday afternoon covering crime in 2025. This report provides the first formal estimates of how much crime there was in the United States last year. The FBI estimates that murder fell 18 percent in 2025 compared to 2024. There was an estimated 9 percent drop in overall violent crime and a 12 percent drop in overall property crime.
Overall, it was the largest percentage point drop in murder, violent crime and property crime ever recorded. With murder you have to go all the way back to 2024 to find the previous largest one-year drop in murder and before that the previous largest one-year drop was in 2023.
Of course, none of this is news if you have been reading this newsletter (or other places like CCJ). Here’s what I wrote on December 30, 2025:
“The number of crimes reported to law enforcement agencies almost certainly fell at a historic clip in 2025 led by the largest one-year drop in murder ever recorded — the third straight year setting a new record — and sizable drops in reported violent and property crime. This assessment will not be confirmed until the FBI releases formal estimates for 2025 sometime in the second half of next year, but it is based on a variety of sources all saying the same thing.”
I’ll write more about this in subsequent posts (and you’ll get a reprieve from Monday’s post because of the unorthodox timing of this release), but first here’s a quick glance at the data:
Murder
The FBI estimates that there were 14,085 murders in the US in 2025, down 18 percent from the upwardly revised 2024 count. This piece from March held up well!
The US murder rate in 2025 was 4.1 per 100k. The FBI’s report says “the 2025 estimated murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate—4.1 per 100,000 inhabitants—matches the rates observed in 1955 and 1956, making it tied for lowest rates recorded since national estimates began.”
I wrote about this as well a few months ago here and noted the unreliability of those mid-1950s estimates and that the more modern estimates really begin in 1958. I think it’s fair to say that the US murder rate in 2025 was roughly the lowest ever recorded and there probably won’t be any ambiguity when the 2026 data is released next year.
What we do know is that the currently reported figure for 2025 was the fewest murders reported in the US since 1968 and lowest murder rate since before 1960. I say “currently” the lowest number of murders because I would expect 2025’s total to be revised up above 2014’s 14,177 when the 2026 data is released next year though that shouldn’t impact the murder rate enough to put it above 2014.
The bottom line is that the US murder rate was lower last year than it has been in the lifetime of anyone born after Kennedy was elected president and it’s plunging even lower in 2026.
Violent Crime
The FBI estimates that there were around 1.1 million violent crimes in 2025 with a rate of 328 per 100k. That’s the lowest number of violent crimes reported since 1978 and the lowest violent crime rate since 1968 (just barely).
The drop in violent crime has been more muted than with property crime, but it is still headed for 50+ year lows for the third straight year here in 2026.
Property Crime
The FBI estimates there were around 5.25 million property crimes reported in the US in 2025. Some property crimes have a propensity to be underreported, especially non-auto thefts, but that is still the fewest number of property crimes reported since 1966 and the lowest rate ever recorded.
Of note, the second straight enormous drop in reported auto thefts has placed that crime now well below COVID levels and into nearly the lowest rate ever recorded. It’s a pretty remarkable turnaround after an enormous spike in auto thefts occurred in the years after COVID.
Clearance Rates
I’ll have to write about this more at length, but national clearance rates rose even more than expected. The violent crime clearance rate was 47 percent, the highest in a decade and up more than 10 percentage points from 2022. The murder clearance rate in 2025 was 68.8 percent, that’s the highest national murder clearance rate reported since 1988 and represents a 16.5 percentage point increase from 2022. And quite interestingly, the robbery clearance rate was 35.8 percent which is the highest robbery clearance rate in the US since 1965
The property crime clearance rate also improved although those tend to get solved less often. The 17.4 percent clearance rate for burglaries was the best in the US since 1975.
Participation
More than 96 percent of the US population was covered by an agency reporting data to the FBI making up the 2025 crime data release. That’s the highest since before the NIBRS switch in 2021. The idea that crime is being reported as down because fewer agencies are reporting than normal will not die as evidenced by the following quote from a recent social media post I saw mentioning the drop in murder:
“This is false. The DOJ underwent some massive software changes which affected the reporting habits of many jurisdictions across the nation.”
And yet, the data is pretty clear — FBI estimates are coming from the same amount of the country as before.
2021 was still an asterisk year, but other than that the crime data is as trustworthy as ever.
How’d The Crime Index Do?
The Crime Index launched in September 2024 with the goal of getting really close to the FBI’s is now fully capable of identifying crime trends. At this point last year we had the trends virtually pegged and by our end of year sample (making up around 580 agencies nationwide was published in February 2026) we were basically spot on. The midyear sample was pre-FBI monthly data releases and likely would have been even closer to the FBI if done today with a larger sample.
The 2025 data release is somewhat old news by the time it’s out, but it’s also an important reassurance that we know what’s happening in 2026 because of how accurate these collection and reporting systems have become. It’s already mid-August 2026 and the 2025 numbers don’t tell us what’s happening now, but we know that crime is continuing to fall in the United States at a strong clip to levels not seen in decades (if ever).
New on the Jeff-alytics Podcast
Every time a gun is recovered at a crime scene in America, a quiet process begins. The gun is traced backward through manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers to find out where it came from and how it got to the scene. Most people have no idea this system exists, let alone what it entails.
Tom Chittum has spent 25 years inside it. He’s a former associate deputy director of the ATF and has spent his career at the intersection of federal law enforcement, firearms law, and the technology used to connect guns to crimes.
Tom Chittum was a career federal agent and retired from ATF as Associate Deputy Director. After leaving government service, he was Senior Vice President of Forensic Services at SoundThinking, the maker of the gunshot detection system, ShotSpotter. He is an adjunct law professor at UNLV’s Boyd School of Law, where he teaches ‘Firearms Law and the Second Amendment.’ He also works as a private attorney, representing federal law enforcement officers and advising on matters of firearms and explosives law.
You can also catch it on the Jeff-alytics YouTube page where I’ll be posting episodes and video clips, so be sure to like and subscribe there if you’re so inclined!
And while you’re here, be sure to check out these other recent great episodes:
Northwestern sociologist Andrew Papachristos
Vera President Insha Rahman
Director, NORC Center on Public Safety & Justice John Roman
Criminologist Andy Wheeler
This is such an interesting story. Couple more theories on why the decline continues:
The slow aging of the population is a continued tailwind. Smaller family sizes and later ages of pregnancy is also allowing kids to be more supervised as they age into later teens.
The slow adoption of COMPAS and other risk assessment tools is allowing prisons to keep the most high-risk individuals locked up.
The proliferation of video cameras and cell phones makes everyone feel like they're being watched whenever they are in public (and they probably are!). And it makes prosecutions more easy to close when a crime does happen.
A bunch of smaller advances in law enforcement, like the firearm tracking, are slowly getting adopted by police departments and making it easier to trace crimes. Each one might be kind of small but put them all together and it's a real impact.