The Disappearing American Bank Robbery

Bank robberies are going the way of Blockbuster.

The United States produced more than 1 billion tons of coal in 2003, but by 2023 that figure had fallen to under 600 million tons. Blockbuster had more than 9,000 stores at its peak in 2004, but there is just one last store remaining today. And in 1992 there were 9,540 bank robberies reported to the FBI (this includes all violations of the Federal Bank Robbery and Incidental Crimes Statute). By 2023, however, the FBI reported just 1,362 bank robberies per its annual bank crime report released late last year.

That's the lowest number of bank robberies reported to the FBI since before 1990 (I couldn’t find older figures than that online) and highlights a continuing trend of falling bank robberies for most of the last 15 years.

Bank robberies have held the fascination of the American public for more than a century, from Bonnie & Clyde and John Dillinger to Scott Scurlock, the subject of a recent Netflix docudrama that was pretty good! Yet bank robberies are becoming less and less frequent as time marches on.

The FBI has bank crime reports for every year from 2003 to 2023 available online and aggregated counts for 1990 to 2001 in a report from 2002. These reports point to an 83 percent decline in bank robberies nationally over the last 20 years, far exceeding the 50 percent decline in all types of robberies reported to the FBI over that span.

The decline in bank robberies has meant far fewer deaths (usually the perpetrator getting killed), injuries, and hostages taken during such traumatic events. Indeed, 2023 was the first year on record with zero deaths resulting from bank robberies that were reported to the FBI. In 2003, by contrast, there were 21 deaths in bank robberies including 14 perpetrators, 3 customers, 2 employees, 1 guard, and 1 “other”.

So what is to blame for the dramatic decline in the American bank robbery?

My best guess is the internet. The growth in online sales and the ease of performing transactions with just your phone means people need cash less often and use banks less often. It also provides new, less physically dangerous avenues for thieving for those who are so inclined.

To show this I compared E-commerce sales per year dating back to 2003 per MarketPulse with the number of bank robberies reported to the FBI each year over that span. The lines seem to match up perfectly with bank robberies plummeting while internet sales have skyrockets over the last two decades (alternative piece title: How Amazon Is Reducing Bank Robberies).

Fewer bank robberies almost certainly means less money being taken though the FBI stopped reporting monetary figures in 2014. Very little, around 20 percent, of money stolen in bank robberies was ever recovered by authorities, so insurance companies also win with fewer bank robberies.

The above graph suggests that bank robberies may have become less profitable starting around 2008. Bank robberies averaged about $9,600 stolen per incident from 2003 to 2008 but that total dropped to around $7,500 stolen from 2009 to 2013.

It’s certainly possible — probable even — that other factors such as improvements in surveillance technology and money tracking are contributing to declining bank robberies. Still, rising internet sales seems like the most obvious explanation for such a sharp decline in the last 20 years.

Whatever the cause, fewer bank robberies means fewer traumatic experiences, less money stolen, and fewer deaths. It may mean less material for future Netflix docudramas, but fewer bank robberies — like a transition away from coal — is probably for the best for America as a whole.