Reported Crime May Be Falling At A Historic Rate In The US
How does 2025 stack up compared to other years?
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Murder is falling at the fastest pace ever recorded in 2025. Data from the Real-Time Crime Index shows murder down around 19 percent through August in a sample of more than 550 agencies covering nearly 115 million people nationwide.
And it's not just murder that is down a lot as seen in the latest data on reported crime from the RTCI:
We have more or less complete national estimates from the FBI back to 1960 and the largest decline in murder recorded so far was last year’s 14.9 percent drop which may get revised to be slightly smaller. Before that it was a 9.3 percent drop in 2023. Before that it was a 9.1 percent reduction in 1996.
We won’t know exactly where this year will end up and how well the RTCI will predict the FBI’s estimates, but the gap between 15 percent and 20 percent is large enough to feel reasonably confident in a third straight year of record murder decline this year.
But what about the drop in other crimes?
There’s some uncertainty give that the year isn’t over and the RTCI is probably overestimating the declines by at least a little bit due to underreporting. The RTCI can give us the direction of crime trends with a lot of certainty, but the exact change is still a bit up in the air.
We can safely assume that reported crime is down a lot pretty much everywhere though, even if the exact numbers may bounce by a few percentage points around in the coming months. So, even if they're not set in stone, how would the declines in crimes other than murder as seen in the RTCI compare in a historical sense?
As I said, we have relatively decent national estimate data back to 1960 from the FBI. The FBI has been publishing the Uniform Crime Report since 1930, but reporting gets progressively more incomplete the farther back you go. Going back to 1960 shows just how much crime is falling in 2025 (per the RTCI) compared to the last 65 years.
Overall violent and property crime are both on track to have the largest one-year declines ever recorded. The drop in reported violent crime is being driven by enormous drops in murder and robbery. I’ve written about the former a lot, and a large drops in robberies makes sense given that carjackings — a subset of robberies — are falling a lot too.
Overall property crime is falling driven by similalrly enormous drops in burglary and auto theft. Theft is down the second most ever recorded — per the RTCI — eclipsed only by the drop in 2020 when everything was closed.
Crime is not guaranteed to decline at a record clip across every crime type in 2025, but we are likely seeing very large drops in every measured category of crime. Simply put, the changes shown in the RTCI point to drops in reported crime that are very large by historical standards and may feature multiple records broken when all is tallied and reported.
But what about if we try and go back before 1960? The FBI has scanned PDFs of each Uniform Crime Report dating back to 1930. As I mentioned, the reporting gets less complete the earlier you go. From nearly complete in the early 1960s to around 80 percent of the country covered in the 1955 Uniform Crime Report…
To city-only reports in the 1940s covering increasingly smaller population groups as you approach 1930.
Going back before 1960 is somewhat silly from a data comparability perspective. The percent changes from 1932 to 1938, for example, are drawn from a sample of just 73 cities of 100,000 or more that reported data. And overall violent and property crime counts aren’t really available.
Still, the changes we are seeing in 2025 so far hold up as extremely large by historical standards with the understanding that the pre-1960 stuff isn't exactly apples to apples.
The only larger declines were in theft in 1943 and 2020 and aggravated assaults in 1932 when reporting was far from complete.
The US will likely see the largest one-year drop in murder ever recorded in 2025. Again. Will the same be true of overall reported violent and property crime? The evidence so far certainly seems to suggest it, but the exact degree of this year's drops won't be known for certain for a few more months.
How do you know that the crime statistics reported by the FBI are still to be trusted?
Is there any way to track the potentially criminal actions of ostensible federal agents (Since they are masked and show no ID or paperwork, who knows if they are?)
Jeff, I will give you credit that the title of this piece references "Reported" crime. However, the article quickly drifts to "All" crime falling. The only crimes where "reported" crime is at all representative of actual crime are murder, car theft, and bullet wounds requiring medical attention for obvious reasons. All analysts know that "unreported" theft, robbery, assault, assault with a deadly weapon, battery, rape have all skyrocketed to all time highs. Everybody in urban poor areas has family members and or friends who have been victims of these crimes on a regular basis and usually by repeat offenders. The NCVS obviously does not do an adequate job of capturing "unreported" crimes. I understand the difficulty of estimating "unreported" crime, but until a solution is found, it is a tremendous disservice to the underserved communities to continue to represent that actual crime has gone down. This causes law makers to think that soft on crime policies are working when any the exact reverse is true. This is devastating to the people who live and work in these neighborhoods. Catch and release is always into poor neighborhoods. That's victims and witnesses have the multiple time offender back in their living room with a band new gun the same day a crime is reported.
You previously agreed that the the following occurrences have caused "unreported" crime to increase but you didn't believe the increase was significant: It Most Certainly Is.
1. Laws have changed making drug possession, use, and distribution less serious.
2. It is now a non-prosecutable misdemeanor or less to steal up to $1,000 in Illinois or $1,500 a day in over half the states and $2,500 a day in some states.
3. It is now a non-prosecutable misdemeanor to empty the shelves of local stores multiple times. Staff and security are told to not intervene.
4. It is now a non-prosecutable crime to mug, rob, beat, and assault people on the street or public transportation because they are usually plead down to misdemeanor or no-crime.
5. Police have been neutered, and can no longer stop, search, chase (foot or vehicle) or arrest suspected criminals.
6. Police have been demonized to the point where no sane person would ever aspire to be a cop.
7. Police have been defunded to the point where there is no proactive crime deterrence.
8. Police response times have risen from 30 minutes or less to 4 or 5 hours.
9. Police are powerless to stop retaliation against victims or witnesses who report crimes.
10. Cashless bail puts the criminal back at the victim's or witness's door the same day as the crime.
11. Arrests have dropped through the floor, and not because crime has decreased.
12. Soft-on-crime prosecutors reduce felonies to misdemeanors or no-crimes in the vast majority of cases.
13. Prosecutions have dropped through the floor. Every arrest but the most serious of crimes is pled down to no consequence.
14. In the unlikely event of both an arrest, and a successful prosecution, the possibility of any serious consequence for committing a crime is virtually zero.
15. And last but probably most important retaliation by the criminal or his gang makes it impossible for any victim or witness to ever appear in court.
Jeff, theft is so accepted in poor urban areas that it has become an accepted way of life to upcoming generations. It is standard now to have fewer people pay than just steal what they want at stores. Nobody can show a phone, tablet, laptop, watch, jewelry or a wallet on the street or public transportation because it will just be stolen, and no victim or witness will report anything if they want to continue to live or work in that neighborhood. We have to be able to find a way to report on this type of crime if we want to save these communities and people. There has to be consequences for this type of crime or we have no society. Pleas help!