Murder Fell At The Fastest Pace Ever Recorded In 2023

Takeaways from the FBI's Crime in the United States 2023 report.

The FBI released its annual Crime in the United States estimates for 2023 today showing an 11.6 percent decline in murder, a 3 decline in violent crime, and a 2.4 decline in property crime nationally last year. The FBI’s 2023 report is based on reporting from 94.3 percent of the US population.

The murder decline is the largest one-year decline ever recorded, besting a 9.1 percent decline in 1996. The 2023 murder decline combined with a large decline being seen so far in 2024 shows murder is falling faster than ever before recorded in the United State. The 3 percent decline in reported violent crime puts the national violent crime rate (363.8 per 100k) alongside 2014 (363.6 per 100k) as the lowest level of reported violent crime since the early 1970s.

The FBI usually changes previous year estimates up or down as new data comes in. This is a normal part of the estimative process and changes to recent year rates and totals is completely normal. In this case I’m using the Table 1 in the Crime in the US 2023 report for this assessment. This means that the exact figures you used last year have probably changed a bit this year though the general contours of national crime trends remain the same.

Also note that the 2021 estimates were based on substantially lower participation due to the NIBRS switch, so I’m not comparing it to other years before or after in this analysis. The 2021 figures are included in graphs for the sake of continuity though they can be largely ignored.

Murder

There were more than 2,500 fewer murders in 2023 compared to 2022, also the largest decline ever recorded (data back to 1960). The estimated murder rate of 5.7 per 100,000 in 2023 represents a 16.2 decline from 2020 with the murder rate up 9.6 percent relative to 2019’s estimate (though it’s falling fast again in 2024).

The big decline in murder certainly is no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention. I first wrote about it last June, and a large decline matches what was seen in the Real-Time Crime Index, the FBI’s quarterly data, and the Council on Criminal Justice’s year end reports.

There were more than 2,500 fewer murder victims in 2023 compared to 2022 which is by far the largest one-year decline ever recorded. Previously, the largest one-year decline in murder victims was 1,961 in 1996.

Taking the 2023 decline alongside the even bigger decline we are seeing so far in 2024 puts the US murder rate at or very possibly below pre-COVID levels in the span of 3 years. Murder declined nationally and it declined substantially in cities like New Orleans, New York, Los Angeles, and many more in 2023. It is an astounding feat that deserves to be studied for decades to come.

At the same time, 19,000 murders is still 19,000 tragedies too many. Murder declined nationally but there were still cities like Washington DC, Greensboro and Memphis that saw large increases in murder. One should be able to appreciate the strong downward trend — especially after the historic increase in 2020 — while acknowledging that the level of murder and gun violence remains far too high in the United States and that there are still places not seeing declines.

Violent Crime

Reported violent crime fell 3 percent nationally in 2023, largely matching my expectations of a small decline. Not all violent crimes are reported to the police each year though the rate of reporting is usually higher for violent crime than for property crime.

The FBI expanded the definition of rape in 2013 which makes comparing violent crime counts and rates today to pre-2013 totals a tad tricky. The below charts on the national violent crime rate use the legacy definition of rape rather than the revised definition that was introduced in 2013. This allows for an apples to apples comparison of violent crime today with that of the 1960s through 2012. The number and rate of rape based on the legacy definition can be found in Table 1 of the 2023 Crime in the US report.

The decline in violent crime reported in UCR mimics what we saw in the NCVS 2023 released last week. These two measures have historically been in agreement about the direction of violent crime nationally and they appear to be back in agreement as to what happened in 2023 even if they don’t agree about what happened in 2020 and 2021. The agreement between BJS and FBI reporting in terms of violent crime in 2023 adds to my belief that the disagreement about what happened in 2022 reflects a uniquely challenging environment to survey in 2020 (and again in 2021).

The FBI reported a violent crime rate of 363.8 in 2023 which is essentially tied with 2014 (363.4) and 2019 (363.9) as the lowest violent crime rate reported nationally since 1970 given the inherent inexactitude of crime data. The violent crime rate in 2023 was largely in line with — albeit slightly lower than — the average national violent crime rate over the last 10 years and the early data for 2024 points to a continued decline this year as well.

I've seen a few headlines (see here and here) recently questioning whether violent crime is falling nationally. The reports from both the FBI and BJS show violent crime falling in 2023, and evidence from the FBI, RTCI and MCCA strongly point to declining violent crime again in 2024.

Overall violent crime isn't falling a ton nationally — certainly nowhere near as fast as murder — but violent crime didn't rise a ton in 2020 either. NCVS shows no clear change in violent crime reporting patterns over the last 5 years while participation in UCR was right at historical norms in 2022 and 2023. So while the decline in reported violent crime may not be huge there seems to be ample evidence that it's real and not a data reporting artifact.

Taken together, the UCR and NCVS reports for 2023 outline the contours of violent crime in the US in 2023 perfectly. Reported violent crime IS falling nationally after a bump in 2020, has largely returned to the 50-year lows seen a few times over the last decade, and is down more than 50 percent from where it was at peak in the 1990s.

That doesn’t mean these trends can’t improve or that there aren’t cities that are seeing increasing violent crime while the rest of the nation shows declines, but the overall trend from the data is clear

Property Crime

Property crime was mostly even in 2023 with the FBI reporting declines in theft and burglary coming alongside a huge increase in auto thefts. The property crime rate remains low by historical standards even if it is above where it was during the height of the pandemic. That said, the only year since 1962 with a lower reported property crime rate is 2021 and those estimates — much like the Lakers’ 2020 bubble championship — should come with an asterisk.

The reported rate of burglary was the lowest ever reported while the rate of theft was the lowest since 1965 (ignoring 2021’s estimate). Auto theft was the fly in the ointment in 2023, with the auto theft rate having risen 44.2 percent from 2019 after a 12 percent increase nationally in 2023.

The auto theft rate was the highest reported since 2007 though still down more than 50 percent from where it was in 1991. There is evidence that auto theft is starting to come down in 2024 suggesting we may see a very large decline in property crime this year.

Participation

The share of the country’s population covered by an agency reporting to the FBI rose to 94.3 percent in 2023 from 93.5 percent in 2022. The NIBRS dip was a problem in 2021, but the FBI shifting course and allowing non-NIBRS agencies to report via NIBRS has been a boon to participation and allowed for normal estimates in 2022 and 2023. This year's estimates included reporting from Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Oakland, New Orleans, and many more large agencies that have been erroneously identified as no longer submitting data to the FBI.

NIBRS coverage increased to 83 percent in 2023 with 11 percent of the country’s population covered by an SRS agency. Further advances in NIBRS compliance might be slower, however, with NIBRS compliance becoming less of a big city issue — especially as LAPD has come on board in 2024. Allowing non-NIBRS agencies to submit data to the UCR has been a terrific move by FBI which has kept crime trends knowable for 2022 and 2023.

Conclusion

That today’s crime release went mostly as expected is good proof that the mechanisms are in place to see crime trends as they develop. I started writing about murder coming down at a historic rate in April and May last year (the latter piece was published in early June). The Real-Time Crime Index spelled out how crime changed in 2023 with good accuracy when we launched it a few weeks ago. Plus states are publishing data like never before which told us which way murder and violent crime were trending.

The RTCI was pretty close to the FBI’s reported changes with the biggest miss (auto theft) being clearly explained by a wide gap in stolen cars in big cities vs small cities.

Being able to understand crime trends well before the formal end of year stats are released enables people like me to hopefully deliver accurate representations of what to expect. It hopefully instills confidence that the trends we’re seeing in data for 2024 are the same trends we’ll see when the FBI releases 2024 data sometime next Fall.