I looked up weapon statistics in the CDC's cause of death database for both Chicago and the Nation. They are only easily accessible back to 1978, but it's clear that the proportion of non-gun homicides was much higher.
Cook County's overall homicide rate was 18.3 vs 16.5 per 100,000 in recent years. Firearms-alone were 12 vs 14.5, which leaves a non-firearm rate of 6.3 vs 2.0 now.
Nationally it's basically the same story, although the firearm-alone rate has decreased from 5.9 to 5.4, and the non-firearm rate decreasing by half, from 3.1 to 1.5.
By the 1990’s the number of semiautomatic pistols manufactured/imported passed wheel guns in the U.S. and we never looked back. That changed both the ammunition capacity and speed of reloading of the majority of firearms available in circulation. It would be interesting to have comparative data on shootings with multiple wounds/multiple wounded victims to compare. I don’t want to go down the rabbit hole of “powerful” further than Newton’s Third Law remains unrepealed except to note that during a long career there has been an upgrade in street guns from Saturday night specials to military/police spec pistols. Countervailing that is a substantial increase in trauma care, product of long years of shooting wars. Folks will survive who wouldn’t have a decade ago. Chiefs may take credit for reducing homicides that belongs to a highly trained EMT and trauma physician. All that said when shootings and homicides both trend down something worth understanding is going on. It’s certainly not a lack of the availability of guns.
Keeping clear on the distinction between victims and incidents is important. Since 2010, in Chicago, about 30% of shooting incidents involve multiple victims. The max was 15, in an incident outside a church following a gang-related funeral. A significant majority of multiple-victim shootings involve just two victims, but the long tail wags the total. Overall, 80-85 percent of shooting victimizations over this period were non-fatal, and multiple-victim shootings are somewhat more likely to include non-fatals. Following up on Andy's comment, over the 2010+ period 1-3% of shooting victimizations each year are coded as 'domestic circumstances.'
This kind of data is just begging for some sort of explanation. I respect that Jeff isn't idly speculating, but I wish we could get some sort of link or reference to working theories.
Do hospitals report the number of gunshot wounds treated. This number would verify if the government statistics are actually accurate, or at least In the ball park. I am concerned with the veracity of the crime statistics as we struggle with some jurisdictions not reporting properly to the FBI. The shooting data was under reported in DC before Trump stepped in resulting in 1 suspension and an investigation.
I think shootings are likely a smaller proportion of homicides in the 1960's (Dick Block's historical homicide data likely has much of that info). It is the case those homicide totals in the 60's had a higher proportion of domestic, (which I think are less likely to be guns as well) https://andrewpwheeler.com/2021/01/06/new-book-micro-geographic-analysis-of-chicago-homicides-1965-2017/.
High recommend on that book.
I looked up weapon statistics in the CDC's cause of death database for both Chicago and the Nation. They are only easily accessible back to 1978, but it's clear that the proportion of non-gun homicides was much higher.
Cook County's overall homicide rate was 18.3 vs 16.5 per 100,000 in recent years. Firearms-alone were 12 vs 14.5, which leaves a non-firearm rate of 6.3 vs 2.0 now.
Nationally it's basically the same story, although the firearm-alone rate has decreased from 5.9 to 5.4, and the non-firearm rate decreasing by half, from 3.1 to 1.5.
Jeff, as always, crushing it. Appreciate the time you put into this.
By the 1990’s the number of semiautomatic pistols manufactured/imported passed wheel guns in the U.S. and we never looked back. That changed both the ammunition capacity and speed of reloading of the majority of firearms available in circulation. It would be interesting to have comparative data on shootings with multiple wounds/multiple wounded victims to compare. I don’t want to go down the rabbit hole of “powerful” further than Newton’s Third Law remains unrepealed except to note that during a long career there has been an upgrade in street guns from Saturday night specials to military/police spec pistols. Countervailing that is a substantial increase in trauma care, product of long years of shooting wars. Folks will survive who wouldn’t have a decade ago. Chiefs may take credit for reducing homicides that belongs to a highly trained EMT and trauma physician. All that said when shootings and homicides both trend down something worth understanding is going on. It’s certainly not a lack of the availability of guns.
Keeping clear on the distinction between victims and incidents is important. Since 2010, in Chicago, about 30% of shooting incidents involve multiple victims. The max was 15, in an incident outside a church following a gang-related funeral. A significant majority of multiple-victim shootings involve just two victims, but the long tail wags the total. Overall, 80-85 percent of shooting victimizations over this period were non-fatal, and multiple-victim shootings are somewhat more likely to include non-fatals. Following up on Andy's comment, over the 2010+ period 1-3% of shooting victimizations each year are coded as 'domestic circumstances.'
This kind of data is just begging for some sort of explanation. I respect that Jeff isn't idly speculating, but I wish we could get some sort of link or reference to working theories.
Do hospitals report the number of gunshot wounds treated. This number would verify if the government statistics are actually accurate, or at least In the ball park. I am concerned with the veracity of the crime statistics as we struggle with some jurisdictions not reporting properly to the FBI. The shooting data was under reported in DC before Trump stepped in resulting in 1 suspension and an investigation.
53 this weekend. Ah, the good ol’ days…