This is historic. Very historic. I don't think many people, if any at all, realizes, that low homicide numbers in cities like San Francisco, Philadelphia and Detroit, the lowest since the 60s, are an indication, that the great urban crime crises of the last decades may be wane.
I am honestly shocked. I'm in my 60s and apparently this is the safest this country has been in my entire life. You can see that 2024 numbers had returned to pre-COVID levels, but to take another 20% from that? That's crazy. Surely there's going to be an upward adjustment at some point.
how can you say the nationwide FBI sweep to crack down on violent crime is "the encouragement of criminal activity" ?
I just feel like you are starting from a position of "Trump is bad" so that means that the numbers are good in spite of Trump, but it's not back up with anything but assertion.
I mean, the economy is definitely not destroyed. Inflation is still down compared to the previous administration and wages are outpacing inflation now. But prices did go up something like 28-30% during the previous administration and it's going to take a long time for wage growth to overcome that... a long time, as in 15-20 years of low inflation.
Interesting. I appreciate how the article really doesn't go into causes of this, other than being post-pandemic.
Is this a Trump effect? Is this a combination of lower crime in immigrant communities (ICE activity) + lower crime everywhere else because of a perception that law and order is back? Even though crime is mostly controlled at the state and city level, could the perception affect crime happening on the street?
Ccash, I have been trying to answer these questions as well (it is what led me to Asher).
Looking at the data, the drops are larger than what I expected from “the continuing downward trend”.
The deployment of NG and Federal police seemed to have an impact on crime in DC; certainly anecdotally. Why wouldn’t that propagate to other cities with similar federal presence?
I disagree that the average Joe and Jill street criminals are emboldened by trump not being “brought to justice”. People are smarter than that…the average person knows that they are not rich or powerful enough to commit crimes and get away with it. The elite getting off Scot-free has been happening forever (memba all of epsteins friends? memba the housing market crash? memba not finding WMDs? memba using the NSA to spy on civilians?).
In fact, lots of cities who were struggling with crimes like carjacking yielding stricter punishments whereas before (especially if you were a juvenile) it was kinda just a slap on the wrist. Basically, the 20 minute joyride was no longer worth the 10 years in prison.
A street criminal asking themselves how long a fried or family member was locked up for before committing a crime, what the risk of getting caught is, etc, not thinking about Trump.
Further, If we can agree that some illegal immigrants commit crimes, I think it is fair to say that that group of people may be less “active” because the consequences (add deportation) are much more significant and the are a lot more resources (ice).
Lastly, A lot of DAs and ADAs have caught heat for releasing criminals on bail that go out and commit crimes that make national news. There has been a bunch of reform in that respect as well.
Alls I am saying is — I think your question deserves a more curious and nuanced answer than “no”.
Let me know if you find anything worthwhile on the subject!
Thanks for the thoughtful response! It looks like the person leaving the other comments deleted theirs after you left your response here :-D
Yes, something perplexing has happened over the past year. It is fully possible for crime to trend downwards, but then some other factor comes into play that makes it drop off a cliff - which is what seems to be happening here. That's the case in El Salvador (homicides going down since 2015, but then go down sharply in 2022 due to gov't action). Even the evening news here in Chicago last week said that the number of homicides in Chicago in 2025 is the lowest number since the 1960s. That's noteworthy, and points to something beyond "we're getting over COVID".
I also know that the largest Mexican community here, known as Little Village, which the Chicago Tribune stated a few weeks ago has seen lots of violence over the years, and does account for a certain percentage of homicides in the city, has seen a sharp drop in crime. There's been a 20% drop in 911 calls. The article tries to say that it is due to people in the neighborhood fearing interactions with city law enforcement due to their immigration status. But couldn't it also be linked to Operation Midway Blitz, which has brought tons of ICE agents to the streets of that neighborhood?
And none of what I'm saying is meant to state an opinion one way or the other about whether or not ICE in the city has been good or bad. It just does seem obvious, even if just anecdotally, that street criminals have been staying home since more law enforcement (in this case, federal), is on the streets.
Not sure if any concrete reason that we'll ever be able to discover! I'm open to reasons. Thanks for the interaction.
if can't be that sort of "Trump bad" simplistic. What about the Biden-era pardons? Do those not have an effect as well?
What about the presumably millions of illegal aliens moving to cities where they know sanctuary policies will release them back onto the streets?
That's a fairly straightforward incentive that doesn't require any political awareness. If I were a criminal, that's the kind of jurisdiction I would gravitate to.
Are you even considering the FBI's nationwide "Operation Summer Heat" last year that arrested thousands of violent criminals?
That would be an interesting study. To what extent do street criminals take into account presidential pardons and inflation, or are influenced by those things
Not sure about this data. Does your data factor in the abuse towards immigrants from other countries? I would believe a Canadian statistician before an American.
It’s worth considering. But we can see how many murders have been committed by illegal immigrants in the past, and it was never a large enough total to explain a drop like this.
Most likely it is just a continuation of 2022-2024 trends, which were themselves a continuation of pre-pandemic trends that go back to early 90s. 2020-21 was the outlier.
The drops have been especially quick in the last couple of years as we’ve basically made it back to the pre-pandemic trend line.
Thanks, once again, Jeff. By continuing to present actual Crime data, you shortcut the lies, er, "misrepresentations" of those Congress Critters (we all know which ones, don't we?) who want to manipulate the electorate, telling them to, "Be afraid. Be very afraid."
"If you want to control someone, all you have to do is to make them feel afraid.”
Wondering if there are data from MSA's rather than at the city level. Seems that city borders are rather subjective and population density a meaningful variable that is maybe normalized with MSAs versus cities.
Tourism is down, so crime is down. People work from home so they are able to protect their possessions and neighbours better. Due to new bills (replacing Patriot Act) your citizens (good an bad) can be monitored 24/7 by low-IQ operatives like ICE. As a result America does not practice literacy as much as it used to and will soon join others as the most inept nation in the world.
This is historic. Very historic. I don't think many people, if any at all, realizes, that low homicide numbers in cities like San Francisco, Philadelphia and Detroit, the lowest since the 60s, are an indication, that the great urban crime crises of the last decades may be wane.
I am honestly shocked. I'm in my 60s and apparently this is the safest this country has been in my entire life. You can see that 2024 numbers had returned to pre-COVID levels, but to take another 20% from that? That's crazy. Surely there's going to be an upward adjustment at some point.
I hope not! But we will see, I remain optimistic. It should be great news that last year there was such a historic low.
how can you say the nationwide FBI sweep to crack down on violent crime is "the encouragement of criminal activity" ?
I just feel like you are starting from a position of "Trump is bad" so that means that the numbers are good in spite of Trump, but it's not back up with anything but assertion.
I mean, the economy is definitely not destroyed. Inflation is still down compared to the previous administration and wages are outpacing inflation now. But prices did go up something like 28-30% during the previous administration and it's going to take a long time for wage growth to overcome that... a long time, as in 15-20 years of low inflation.
Interesting. I appreciate how the article really doesn't go into causes of this, other than being post-pandemic.
Is this a Trump effect? Is this a combination of lower crime in immigrant communities (ICE activity) + lower crime everywhere else because of a perception that law and order is back? Even though crime is mostly controlled at the state and city level, could the perception affect crime happening on the street?
Ccash, I have been trying to answer these questions as well (it is what led me to Asher).
Looking at the data, the drops are larger than what I expected from “the continuing downward trend”.
The deployment of NG and Federal police seemed to have an impact on crime in DC; certainly anecdotally. Why wouldn’t that propagate to other cities with similar federal presence?
I disagree that the average Joe and Jill street criminals are emboldened by trump not being “brought to justice”. People are smarter than that…the average person knows that they are not rich or powerful enough to commit crimes and get away with it. The elite getting off Scot-free has been happening forever (memba all of epsteins friends? memba the housing market crash? memba not finding WMDs? memba using the NSA to spy on civilians?).
In fact, lots of cities who were struggling with crimes like carjacking yielding stricter punishments whereas before (especially if you were a juvenile) it was kinda just a slap on the wrist. Basically, the 20 minute joyride was no longer worth the 10 years in prison.
A street criminal asking themselves how long a fried or family member was locked up for before committing a crime, what the risk of getting caught is, etc, not thinking about Trump.
Further, If we can agree that some illegal immigrants commit crimes, I think it is fair to say that that group of people may be less “active” because the consequences (add deportation) are much more significant and the are a lot more resources (ice).
Lastly, A lot of DAs and ADAs have caught heat for releasing criminals on bail that go out and commit crimes that make national news. There has been a bunch of reform in that respect as well.
Alls I am saying is — I think your question deserves a more curious and nuanced answer than “no”.
Let me know if you find anything worthwhile on the subject!
Thanks for the thoughtful response! It looks like the person leaving the other comments deleted theirs after you left your response here :-D
Yes, something perplexing has happened over the past year. It is fully possible for crime to trend downwards, but then some other factor comes into play that makes it drop off a cliff - which is what seems to be happening here. That's the case in El Salvador (homicides going down since 2015, but then go down sharply in 2022 due to gov't action). Even the evening news here in Chicago last week said that the number of homicides in Chicago in 2025 is the lowest number since the 1960s. That's noteworthy, and points to something beyond "we're getting over COVID".
I also know that the largest Mexican community here, known as Little Village, which the Chicago Tribune stated a few weeks ago has seen lots of violence over the years, and does account for a certain percentage of homicides in the city, has seen a sharp drop in crime. There's been a 20% drop in 911 calls. The article tries to say that it is due to people in the neighborhood fearing interactions with city law enforcement due to their immigration status. But couldn't it also be linked to Operation Midway Blitz, which has brought tons of ICE agents to the streets of that neighborhood?
And none of what I'm saying is meant to state an opinion one way or the other about whether or not ICE in the city has been good or bad. It just does seem obvious, even if just anecdotally, that street criminals have been staying home since more law enforcement (in this case, federal), is on the streets.
Not sure if any concrete reason that we'll ever be able to discover! I'm open to reasons. Thanks for the interaction.
if can't be that sort of "Trump bad" simplistic. What about the Biden-era pardons? Do those not have an effect as well?
What about the presumably millions of illegal aliens moving to cities where they know sanctuary policies will release them back onto the streets?
That's a fairly straightforward incentive that doesn't require any political awareness. If I were a criminal, that's the kind of jurisdiction I would gravitate to.
Are you even considering the FBI's nationwide "Operation Summer Heat" last year that arrested thousands of violent criminals?
That would be an interesting study. To what extent do street criminals take into account presidential pardons and inflation, or are influenced by those things
Not sure about this data. Does your data factor in the abuse towards immigrants from other countries? I would believe a Canadian statistician before an American.
Perhaps the deportation of illegals has had a hand in the decline in murders and crime.
It’s worth considering. But we can see how many murders have been committed by illegal immigrants in the past, and it was never a large enough total to explain a drop like this.
Most likely it is just a continuation of 2022-2024 trends, which were themselves a continuation of pre-pandemic trends that go back to early 90s. 2020-21 was the outlier.
The drops have been especially quick in the last couple of years as we’ve basically made it back to the pre-pandemic trend line.
Great to see you using data to dispel ongoing myths about crime. Also, I imagine it's really challenging to relate these changes to federal policies.
I read elsewhere that murder rates in other countries are going up (notably Chile, Peru, etc). It could be interesting to ponder more macro trends.
Thanks, once again, Jeff. By continuing to present actual Crime data, you shortcut the lies, er, "misrepresentations" of those Congress Critters (we all know which ones, don't we?) who want to manipulate the electorate, telling them to, "Be afraid. Be very afraid."
"If you want to control someone, all you have to do is to make them feel afraid.”
- Paulo Coelho, The Devil and Miss Prym
Baby boomers kids growing up?
Wondering if there are data from MSA's rather than at the city level. Seems that city borders are rather subjective and population density a meaningful variable that is maybe normalized with MSAs versus cities.
Tourism is down, so crime is down. People work from home so they are able to protect their possessions and neighbours better. Due to new bills (replacing Patriot Act) your citizens (good an bad) can be monitored 24/7 by low-IQ operatives like ICE. As a result America does not practice literacy as much as it used to and will soon join others as the most inept nation in the world.
One way to ensure a big crime drop is to promote cultural insanity leading to depolicing and then wait for everyone to come to their senses.
Why is this happening?
Whats the misclassification error rate? Im sure these PD budgets have nothing to do with decreases. Also, what are the Fentanyl murder rates? https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/dozens-of-deaths-in-police-custody-were-misclassified-in-autopsies-maryland-officials-say